It was a much better performance by Blake Snell on Tuesday night than his first start last week in Philadelphia. Snell only allowed one run in his first five innings pitched. Unfortunately for his night, it didn’t end there as the San Diego Padres would go on to lose 4-1 after reliever Craig Stammen allowed a three-run home run with two of those runs being accounted to Snell.
Looking back to the decision to keep Blake Snell in. I thought no way you let him throw the 6th in just his second start this season and take the 5 IP 1 ER as a win considering you’re facing Corbin Burnes on the other side.#TimeToShine— Leo Luna (@LeoLuna93) May 25, 2022
Padres manager Bob Melvin gave his left-hander a shot and sent him out to begin the sixth inning. That’s what lost me there. Snell is just getting back in the groove of things in what was just his second start of the season. Now, I would absolutely have been on board if Snell had less than 70 pitches thrown through five innings but he was already at 87 pitches (three more than his last start). Lastly, if it was the 7-8-9 hitters coming up for the second time then I would’ve understood that as well. Instead, it was the top of the lineup coming up for the third time vs Snell. Normally you’d like your starter to avoid those scenarios in a 1-run deficit unless the pitcher is your ace and that’s not Snell at this moment.
When Snell took the mound to start the sixth inning, the Padres win probability was still at 50% per baseball reference despite chasing one to last year’s NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. Once Snell left the game that 50% dropped to 44%.
Padres at home— Leo Luna (@LeoLuna93) May 25, 2022
11-8 (.579) 3.26 runs per game
Padres on the road
17-7 (.708) 5.29 runs per game
Just because I didn’t agree with Melvin’s decision I don’t believe that’s where the Padres lost the game. Ultimately the Padres are going to need more run support at home. Currently, the lineup is averaging two fewer runs per game at home as opposed to when they are on the road. You’d think with 30,000 in the stands at Petco every home game would move the momentum in favor of the Padres. For whatever weird reason it hasn’t. They need to find whoever put a spell on the Padres scoring runs at Petco and kill that spell.
Through two games the Padres have only scored 2-runs in 12 innings vs Milwaukee Brewers starting pitching. Wednesday’s afternoon game will be the Padres best opportunity to jump on a Brewers starter. Yu Darvish is on the mound vs Brewers worst starter Aaron Ashby (nephew of Andy Ashby), a Padres series win seems promising.