It doesn’t seem like the San Diego Padres engaged seriously with Joe Musgrove after the lockout about a contract extension and they might be seeing his price tag increase as he gets closer to reaching free agency after 2022.
Colorado Rockies starter Kyle Freeland just inked a five-year deal worth $64.5 million this week, which also includes a sixth year player option, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. If you’re thinking that Freeland getting $60+ million seemed a little much, we’re on the same page.
Joe Musgrove, who earned his third straight 6+ inning start last night, doesn’t care though about Freeland’s contract seeming like an overpay because he has to be thinking that this extension is only increasing the money he’ll get on his next contract. Just look at Kevin Acee’s tweet last night:
This might not look as much of an overpay for the Rockies if they gave this much money to Freeland after the 2018 season when he had a 2.85 ERA and placed fourth in the NL Cy Young voting. But they’re giving it to him after coming off three seasons where he has ERAs of 6.73, 4.33, and 4.33 respectively.
Freeland’s average annual value (AAV) is $12.9 million for this five year contract he just signed but according to FanGraphs, Freeland’s value was less than this AAV in his last three full seasons ($0.6 million in 2019, $7.8 million in 2020, and $12 million in 2021).
Musgrove, on the other hand, is only one year older than Freeland so he’s in the same age range and according to FanGraphs, was worth $26.3 million in 2019, $8.1 million in 2020, and $26.4 million in 2021 (which was more than double Freeland’s 2021 value).
In January, I wrote that I would’ve offered Musgrove a five-year deal worth $70 million ($14 million) and that was coming off of Musgrove’s best season yet. Now looking at Freeland’s contract and the fact that Musgrove is looking really good so far in 2022, I wouldn’t blame Musgrove asking for at least $20+ million per year for six years (which would be $120 million).
What is your concern level that Musgrove is going to end up hitting the free agent market after Freeland was given $64.5 million?