FanPost

60 Games: A How To Guide

Padres

"It's a lot easier to beat the Dodgers in 60 games!"

Strange Tails

As we prepare ourselves to embark on what will surely be the strangest season of baseball we have ever lived through, let’s remember that the game that we all know and love will be dramatically changed this year; the teams that change dramatically to fit the circumstances are the teams that will outperform their expectations. In a 60 game season, every game will be worth 2.7 games in a normal (163 game) season. Every single game will amount to nearly the total worth of an entire series under normal circumstances! Every game, and every inning within that game, will be crucial.

There will certainly be an asterisk placed next to the name of any team that wins the World Series trophy this year. Maybe this World Series trophy will be discounted for generations to come, maybe 29 other fan bases will cry foul anytime a "2020 World Series Champion" t-shirt is worn by the victorious fan, but I do not find these to be reasons for the 2020 Padres to not put everything they possibly can into winning the title. I’m willing to kill myself to move from 4th to 3rd place in my co-ed indoor soccer league or to beat someone I just met at 24 Hour Fitness in a game of 1-on-1 basketball, how do you think a professional competitor feels about winning a professional trophy, regardless of the circumstances that surround it.

So let’s adjust to the circumstances and discover together how we will first top the Los Angeles Dodgers and then the entire MLB…

Mathematics, A Beginners Guide

There will be 60 games played during the 2020 regular season, which amounts to 540 innings. If we play the normal game of baseball, that we all know and love, we will not beat the Dodgers. I don’t want to lose to the Dodgers by playing the game "the right way," I want to beat the Dodgers by any means necessary.

Kirby Yates pitched in 60 games in 2019. That would equate to a little over 22 games played in a 60 game season. Given the relatively short nature of the 2020 season, I think Kirby Yates will be good for 25-30 innings. The same calculation for Emilio Pagan would make for slightly over 24 games, once again; I’ll say he can do 25-30 innings (at least). Drew Pomeranz and Jose Castillo should be good for similar numbers, let’s say 25 innings each. Guys like Matt Strahm, Pierce Johnson, Michel Baez and Craig Stammen should all be good for at least 25 innings as well. In 2019, while we were bashing on Craig Stammen for giving up what seemed like 354 home runs, he was posting a 3.29 ERA (better than Chris Paddack). If we give each of these three pitchers 25 innings we are down to 330-340 required pitching innings on the year.

In 2019, Chris Paddack only average 5.4 innings per start. Joey Lucchesi wasn’t much better at 5.46 innings/start and it would be hard to expect much more out of Garrett Richards, Dinelson Lamet or Zach Davies. Cal Quantrill should also be added to the conceivable starting pitching mix, as should MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino (Gore and Patino will be included after the one to two weeks which seem necessary to not lose an extra year of control). If we stick to a 5-man rotation, we will require 12 trips through the rotation. Barring injury, Paddack, Richards and Lamet should make the required 12 trips though the rotation each with an average of 5 innings, if possible. This would add another 180 innings and leave us with 150-160 innings for which to account. Gore and Patino should make about 10 trips through the rotation, which barring ineffectiveness (they will have a short leash) or injury would add another 80 innings were they to provide at least 4 innings per start. This would leave us with 70-80 innings for which to account. Davies and Lucchesi could account for 4 innings per start the first time two times through the rotation (while Gore and Patino sit), providing 16 innings and act as 2-3 inning piggy-backs after Gore and Patino for the final 10 times through the rotation (at 2.5 inning/game this would provide another 50 innings, which leaves us with only 4-14 innings for which to account).

Cal Quantrill will make up for whichever innings are left over and could be of paramount importance in this overall roster construction. He will provide the insurance either out of the bullpen or starting rotation due to either injury or lack of effectiveness. So let’s take a look at what an average game would look like…

A Typical Atypical Game

Paddack/Lamet/Richards for ~5 innings, Castillo, Pomeranz, Pagan, Yates if winning (or even if losing if these four are well-rested) or Matt Strahm, Craig Stammen, Michel Baez, Pierce Johnson if losing (switching to the above group of relievers if we overtake the lead in the process). After the first two weeks we will also see Gore/Patino for ~4 innings, with Davies piggy-backing Gore and Lucchesi piggy-backing Patino and finishing a total of 6-7 innings with the best and/or most well-rested relievers from the above subsets finishing the games. Use Cal Quantrill as needed depending on injury and/or necessary rest.

I don’t care if we’re winning by four or losing by four, if each game counts as much as 2.7 normal games, David Bednar, Javy Guerra, Luis Perdomo or Trey Wingenter should never be pitching unless there are multiple injuries or ineffective arms (note: I like all four arms for our squad in a normal year, but this is not the year to see what we may eventually have). Even known Major League arms like Joey Lucchesi and Zach Davies shouldn’t face a lineup a 3rd time through a single time this entire year, the stakes are simply too high for the risk.

If every single inning that the opposition faces is an inning against Paddack, Lamet, Richards, Gore, Patino, Yates, Pagan, Pomeranz, Castillo, Strahm, Stammen, Baez, Johnson, Davies, Lucchesi or Quantrill you can expect runs to be difficult to come by for any opposing team. It won’t look like the baseball that you or I know and love, but I am quite sure that it will be baseball that is more likely to lead to wins than having Joey Lucchesi pitch into the 6th inning of a close game, with Gerardo Reyes pitching the 7th because we’re losing by 2.

While the offensive side will likely be more typical, strange decisions will also need to be made quickly if we are to maximize the value of every game. If Austin Hedges comes up in the 3rd inning with runners on 1st and 2nd, Josh Naylor should be pinch hitting for him whether we’re down 2 runs or the game is still scoreless. Every game doesn’t need to be managed like it’s game 7 of the World Series, but given the relative worth of each game; each game should be managed like it’s game 5 of the World Series.

They Don’t Like Us, We Don’t Care

I am aware that baseball fans in particular tend to be purists, but 2020 is demonstrably lacking in purity. The Padres are not the most talented team in the league. If we play how everyone else plays, we are almost sure to lose. If we immediately view our starters as weapons to be used one or two times through a lineup and utilize the depth of our bullpen to extinguish fires before the kindling has even been laid down, we stand a chance to upset the natural order. At San Diego State basketball games, the student section often yells, "you don’t like us, we don’t care!" Let’s win this 2020 trophy and yell to other fan bases, "you don’t like our 2020 World Series trophy, we don’t care!"

Go Padres!

Thank you for Reading,

John Precoda



This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball staff or SB Nation.