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Padres 2020 Draft: What if We Had Gone College-Heavy?

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2020 IS A STRANGE YEAR

I was very interested to see what AJ Preller was going to do in the 2020 draft. For the first time since 2015 he could actually squint and see a possible window of contention conceivably beginning to open. With that in mind, would Preller stick to a high upside draft with plenty of high school selections or suddenly switch to a college route in an effort to overlap the maturation of his upcoming high school talent with whichever of his 2020 college draft picks pan out?

The Padres are often cited as a baseball team that relies more heavily on scouting than most and this was a year in which the numbers of scouting opportunities for high school players dropped precipitously. If any year were a year that a team like the Padres might go heavy on college players, it would be 2020. So how many of their 6 draft picks did the Padres use on high school players? 2!

I’m actually very happy with the outcome of the Padres 2020 draft, I think they were able to put together a draft class that has a high ceiling without having a tremendously low floor. Before the draft, I never dreamed that we would end up with both Robert Hassell III AND Cole Wilcox- two players who easily could have gone in the top 15-25 draft picks. That being said, what if the Padres would have loaded up on college players with the hopes that this wave of talent might be approaching the Major Leagues in 2022 and 2023? Lets dive into it.

Because I am unable to afford my own team of scouts for this article, I have decided to employ Keith Law from The Athletic, Eric Longenhagen from Fangraphs and the scouting team over at MLB.com to help me make a 2020 draft of exclusively college players. I will list at least three players that were available for each selection (so as to show that our available options were not merely a lucky slip or two) that the Padres had while they were on the clock and make a single choice.

ROUND 1, 8th Overall

Possible selections

A. Reid Detmers (LHP): Law: 8th best prospect, Longenhagen 10th, MLB.com 8th

B. Garrett Crochet (LHP): 39th/22nd/18th

C. Patrick Bailey (C): 17th/12th/17th

Selection: Reid Detmers

MLB.com Scouting Report: Reid Detmers

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

FASTBALL: 55

CURVEBALL: 55

CHANGEUP:50

CONTROL: 55

OVERALL: 55

"One of Illinois' best high school pitching prospects in 2017, Detmers didn't have wow stuff and was strongly committed to Louisville, so he lasted until the Braves took him in the 32nd round. Three years later, he should go in the top 10 picks as the most polished left-hander available. He set Cardinals records for wins (13, first in NCAA Division I) and strikeouts (167, second in D-I) while leading Louisville to the College World Series as a sophomore in 2019, served as the U.S. collegiate national team's best starter during the summer, then ranked second in D-I in whiffs (48) and whiff rate (19.6 per nine innings) during the shortened 2020 season.

Detmers is similar to former Cardinals star Brendan McKay, with an almost identical build and slightly less stuff. His fastball usually ranges from 90-94 mph but plays better than its average velocity because hitters don't seem to see it and he commands it so well. His 72-76 mph curveball has good shape and can be a plus pitch at its best, while his sinking changeup is effective as well.

Detmers has a strong, durable frame that helps him repeat his delivery with ease, allowing him to pound the strike zone. His ability to locate his pitches permits him to succeed even when his fastball dips into the upper 80s. He has some of the best pitchability and mound presence in the 2020 Draft, traits that should help him become a mid-rotation starter."

Analysis

The knock on Reid Detmers is that while he has a tremendously high floor, his ceiling is probably not that of an ace. But the Padres have such a plethora of high upside arms nearing the Majors, a stable mid-rotation arm might be exactly what they need. If Paddack, Lamet, Gore and Patino all pan out like we hope they will, Detmers could well make for one of the best #5 arms in the league as soon as 2021. I have high hopes for Morejon, Weathers, Cantillo, Lawson, Baez, Bolanos et al and Lucchesi, Davies and Quantrill are certainly Major League pitchers, but when you factor in the likelihood of injuries, the variance of prospect outcomes and the relative ceilings of our current back of rotation arms, a pitcher of Detmers caliber at the back end of our rotation sounds mighty nice to me.

ROUND 1A, 34th Overall

Possible Selections

A. JT Ginn (RHP): 28th/24th/44th

B. Dillon Dingler (C): 20th/29th/24th

C. CJ Van Eyk (RHP): 23rd/42nd/39th

Selection: Dillon Dingler

MLB.com Scouting Report: Dillon Dingler

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

HIT: 50

POWER: 50

RUN: 55

ARM: 65

FIELD: 55

OVERALL: 50

"Dingler teamed with Ball State right-hander Kyle Nicolas, another early-round prospect for the 2020 Draft, to win Ohio state Division I baseball and basketball titles when both were Jackson High seniors in 2016-17. He spent most of his freshman season in center field and broke the hamate bone in his left hand during the season opener as a sophomore, costing him a month and limiting him after he returned. He performed well this spring, giving him a chance to become the third first-round pick in Ohio State history, following Nick Swisher (2002) and Alex Wimmers (2010).

Dingler reminds area scouts of former Wright State catcher Sean Murphy, a 2016 Athletics third-rounder who has blossomed into one of baseball's top catching prospects. He doesn't quite have Murphy's plus-plus cannon but he does possess well above-average arm strength and his accuracy continues to get better as he gains experience. His receiving also continues to improve and he shows more athleticism and mobility than most backstops.

While Dingler batted just .267/.362/.396 in his first two college seasons, he controls the strike zone well and has plus raw power, so he should be able to hold his own as a right-handed hitter. He ran a sub-6.6-second 60-yard dash during the Buckeyes' scout day this fall, though he probably won't maintain plus speed as he stays behind the plate. In addition to his physical tools, he also offers strong makeup and was voted an Ohio State captain as a sophomore."

Analysis

I like the upside of JT Ginn the most out of these three players, but given that he signed for $2.9 million with the Mets, I’m going to assume we wouldn’t be able to affod him. Van Eyk looks nasty at times but his control isn’t great so he’s probably a bit more risky than the other two options.

In Dillon Dingler, the Padres would gain a catcher who is sure to stick at the position and has a bat that should play. Hopefully one of Mejia, Hedges or Campusano has established himself as the leader behind the plate before Dingler would be Major League ready, but due to the increasing reliance on playing multiple catchers per team and the injury risk at the position, the likelihood that Dingler would be extremely valuable either on the Padres or on the open market by 2022 or 2023 is incredibly high.

Dingler has a very high floor and a relatively high ceiling for a college bat due to his late improvements at the plate. Scouts see him as a modest batting average type who should have some power and some on-base abilities. His value in the Comp round is too much to pass up.

ROUND 2, 45th Overall:

Possible selections

A. JT Ginn (RHP): 28th/24th/44th

B. Daniel Cabrera (OF): 53rd/38th/38th

C. Clayton Beeter (RHP): 38th/19th/51st

D. Nick Swiney (LHP): 22nd/51st/78th

Selection: Daniel Cabrera

MLB.com Scouting Report: Daniel Cabrera

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

HIT: 55

POWER: 50

RUN: 50

ARM: 55

FIELD: 50

OVERALL: 50

"Scouts considered Cabrera one of the best high school hitting prospects and a potential second-rounder in the 2017 Draft, but his steadfast commitment to Louisiana State dropped him to the Padres in the 26th round. He has a similar reputation as one of the top college bats for 2020, though he has been more of a steady than spectacular performer for the Tigers. He could be the first LSU position player taken in the first round since Alex Bregman went No. 2 overall in 2015.

Cabrera is equipped to hit for average and power. He has a smooth left-handed swing and doesn't try to do too much at the plate, letting his bat speed and the loft in his stroke create natural pop. He commanded the strike zone well as a freshman and less so as a sophomore, when he was hampered by a right wrist injury.

Though he ran a 6.6-second 60-yard dash at a Cape Cod League workout last summer, Cabrera is more of an average runner and not much of a threat to steal. A left fielder in his first two college seasons, he shifted to right field as a junior. He has the solid arm strength to handle right field at the next level."

Analysis

Daniel Cabrera is a fairly low variance prospect who should be a second division starting corner outfielder in the Majors in just a few years. Ideally, we’ll be a first division squad by then in which case Cabrera would make a well above average 4th outfielder who would likely get a ton of play on the squad due to Preller’s propensity to roster many poor fielding outfielders which typically requires defensive substitutions.

A smooth lefty swing who could fashion himself a lower tier starting corner outfielder or high tier 4th outfielder in a few years is something I would be happy to jump on in the second round. The Padres also have a relative dearth of corner outfield prospects in the upper minors, so a little depth would be nice.

3rd Round, 80th Overall

Possible selections

A. Casey Martin (SS): 42nd/43rd/30th

B. Seth Lonsway (LHP): 97th/83rd/50th

C. Gage Workman (3B): 66th/90th/73rd

Selection: Casey Martin

MLB.com Scouting Report: Casey Martin

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

HIT: 45

POWER: 55

RUN: 75

ARM: 55

FIELD: 50

OVERALL: 50

"Scouts rated Martin as the best high school prospect in Arkansas in 2017, though his bat was considered too raw for pro ball and he went undrafted. He made an immediate impact with the Razorbacks, hitting 13 homers as a freshman to help them reach the College World Series, then slammed 15 as a sophomore to bring them back to Omaha. He's one of the best athletes in the 2020 college crop and is Arkansas' toolsiest prospect since Andrew Benintendi went seventh overall in the 2015 Draft, but a poor start to the shortened 2020 season could drop him out of the first round.

An explosive athlete, Martin offers an exciting combination of power and speed. He records run times that grade from 70-80 on the 20-80 scouting scale, though he's still learning how to translate that quickness into stolen bases. He has the potential to be a 25-25 player but gets overly homer-conscious and his right-handed swing gets too uphill, leading to strikeouts.

If Martin can slow the game down a bit offensively and defensively, he can be a star. His quickness and solid arm strength give him the tools to play a number of positions and perhaps stay at shortstop if he becomes more consistent. He played a fine third base as a freshman and definitely would fit in center field, though he should be able to stay on the dirt."

Analysis

Who says drafting college players can’t be high risk, high reward? I have no idea what Casey Martin was doing still on the board when we drafted in the 3rd round, but given that he signed with the Phillies for an over-slot but now unaffordable $1.3 million, we easily could have afforded him given the selections we have made thus far (as a side-note, Seth Lonsway went undrafted because his family set a $1 million price tag that teams were unable to meet).

There is a fair chance that Casey Martin never hits enough to justify his being anything more than a utility player, but there’s also a fair chance that we look back in two years and wonder how he could have possibly slipped out of the 1st round. Explosive athleticism, an ability to play shortstop and potentially above-average power? I’ll take that in the 3rd round.

4th Round, 109th Overall

Possible selections

A. Ian Bedell (RHP): 58th/85thrd/88th

B. Tommy Mace (RHP): 46th/47th/69th

C. Beck Way (RHP): 83rd/78th/95th

Selection: Ian Bedell

MLB.com Scouting Report: Ian Bedell

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

FASTBALL: 55

CURVEBALL: 55

CUTTER: 50

CHANGEUP: 55

CONTROL: 55

OVERALL: 45

"Bedell is an attractive target for clubs that favor youth and performance. He was Iowa's top 2018 prep prospect until he graduated a semester ahead of schedule to enroll early at Missouri, which will make him one of the youngest college players (20 years, 9 months) in the 2020 Draft. After posting a 1.56 ERA as a sophomore reliever last spring, he dominated even more as a starter in the Cape Cod League (0.59 ERA, .383 opponent OPS, 36/3 K/BB ratio) and continued to pound the strike zone in that role this spring.

Bedell's two- and four-seam fastballs sat in the low 90s when he started on the Cape, with sink or run depending on which version he used. He worked more in the upper 80s in cold weather during the truncated 2020 season, but his heater continued to play up because of his command. There's debate as to whether his fading low-80s changeup or his slightly slower curveball is his best secondary pitch, and he also can mix in a mid-80s cutter.

Bedell has a sound delivery and the athleticism to repeat it with ease. He attacks hitters with confidence because he can locate his pitches where he wants. Fellow Missouri hurler T.J. Sikkema rode pitchability and a high floor into the supplemental first round in 2019, and Bedell could take a similar path this year."

Analysis

I’ll admit that Bedell is a little bit of a vanilla pick. That being said, he’s also a pick that is very likely to help a Major League ball club in a few years. He’s got great command and some deception in his delivery. It wouldn’t surprise me if we’re talking about Bedell as a right-handed version of Joey Lucchesi in a few years, which is a 4th round pick with which I am very happy. He signed a bit over slot at 800k, but based on the selections we’ve made so far we should easily be able to afford that in our budget as well.

5th Round, 139th Overall

Possible selections

A. Andrew Abbott (LHP): 82nd/unranked/116th

B. Tommy Mace (RHP): 46th/47th/69th

C. Seth Lonsway (LHP): 97th/83rd/50th

Selection: Seth Lonsway

MLB.com Scouting Report: Seth Lonsway

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

FASTBALL: 55

CURVEBALL: 65

SLIDER: 55

CHANGEUP: 50

CONTROL: 40

OVERALL: 50

"Ohio's best high school prospect in 2017, Lonsway had top-five-rounds talent but fell to the Reds in the 19th round because of his commitment to Ohio State. Academically ineligible because of a transcript snafu in 2018, he led the Big Ten Conference with 126 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings as a redshirt freshman last year. He topped NCAA Division I in strikeout rate (21.0 per nine innings) in the truncated 2020 season and was pitching himself into the first round until he walked eight in two innings against Stetson in his final start.

Lonsway has one of the best curveballs in the 2020 Draft, a bender with power and depth that earns comparisons to Barry Zito's hook when at its best. He showed more velocity than ever this spring, working at 93-94 mph at times and topping out at 96 with riding action on his four-seam fastball. He has added a solid slider/cutter to give him a harder breaking ball and shows some feel for a changeup, though he doesn't use it very often.

There are serious concerns about control and command with Lonsway, who locates his curve better than his fastball and walked 18 in as many innings as a redshirt sophomore. He has an odd delivery with a nearly over-the-top slot and an extreme head tilt, and he has trouble keeping everything in sync. He can be unhittable when he throws strikes with his fastball but struggles to do so more than he should, which might land him in the bullpen if he can't figure it out."

Analysis

None of these three arms ended up being selected on draft day, so it’s impossible to know if we could have signed them or not. That being said, Lonsway stated that his price tag would be $1 million and based on the amount that the other selections we made and their eventually signing price (Detmer’s $4.67 million, Dingler $1.93 million, Daniel Cabrera $1.2 million, Casey Martin $1.3 million, Ian Bedell $0.8 million) we would still have $700k left in our budget and could reach over one million without exceeding the 5% increase that is allowed with only monetary penalties. I am fairly sure we’d be able to get the money to work out, but if not, Levi Thomas or Jagger Haynes-our actual 4th and 5th round selections- or any number of undrafted college players could have fit as well.

However, had we been able to sign Lonsway, he would again represent a relatively high ceiling, low floor selection for a college pitcher. The Buckeyes were trying to adjust his delivery to improve his control, so he may require a bit more time than most college picks to develop. However, if he can get his control and command down, that Barry Zito curveball might look nice in a Padres uniform.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

I believe the general feeling is that the Padres had a great 2020 draft and that most of us are very excited to watch Robert Hassell III, Justin Lange, Owen Caissie, Cole Wilcox, Levi Thomas and Jagger Haynes develop in the Padres system. But do we all agree with the STRATEGY of the draft, that is, drafting largely high school based players that may be 5+ years away from the Major Leagues? Or do you think that going more conservative with college players (college players have a lower bust rate, especially college bats) who may be ready by 2022 or 2023 and thus have a 6- year window of cheap value until 2028 or 2029?

Hassell, Lange, Caissie, Wilcox, Thomas and Haynes or Detmers, Dingler, Cabrera, Martin, Bedell and Lonsway? Or would you have gone with Zac Veen knowing you'd be unable to afford a Cole Wilcox later in the draft? Make a pick now so that I can come back to this article in a few years and update our fan base on which of us are soothsayers!

Thanks for Reading,

John Precoda

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball staff or SB Nation.