FanPost

Dinelson Lamet: 2020 NL Cy Young

Dinelson Lamet

A Series of Fortunate Events

One of the fun things to talk about in a year as strange as 2020 is the likelihood of strange, strange outcomes that are sure to surface at the end of the season. There’s about a 5% chance that someone hits .400, and with such a small sample, there’s a distinct possibility that the Giants or White Sox reach the playoffs while the Dodgers or Twins watch from home.

While probably not the pitcher you’re most excited about on the Padres 2020 roster, I would argue that Dinelson Lamet has the greatest chance at taking home the most prestigious award for a pitcher in 2020. Here’s why…

Only three qualifying pitchers in history have had a strikeout rate of over 13.0 in a full season of baseball. They are: Pedro Martinez (13.20 in 1999), Randy Johnson (13.41 in 2001) and one player from 2018 (I’ll save this name to avoid spoilers). Take a look at this list of starting pitchers who pitched at least 70 innings last year (at 12 expected regular season starts per pitcher a player would probably need about 75-80 innings to be in the running for Cy Young this year).

#

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

xFIP

1

13.82

2.03

1.23

.275

83.3%

40.3%

16.9%

2.48

2

13.32

2.26

1.47

.309

66.7%

42.8%

19.5%

2.93

3

12.95

3.70

1.48

.311

73.6%

36.3%

19.7%

3.44

4

12.69

1.72

0.94

.321

78.7%

40.8%

11.6%

2.88

5

12.36

3.36

1.18

.343

71.6%

39.0%

15.4%

3.31

The numbers on this list seem fairly similar to me. Pitcher #1 had the best season, but seemed to benefit from a low BABIP and an extremely high LOB%. The rest have similar strikeout numbers and similar xFIP. Any pitcher who ends up with an extremely high strikeout total and a low ERA is going to be in the running for a Cy Young award in any given year. So let’s put some names to these numbers.

#

Name

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

LOB%

GB%

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

1

Gerrit Cole

13.82

2.03

1.23

.275

83.3%

40.3%

16.9%

2.50

2.64

2.48

2

Chris Sale

13.32

2.26

1.47

.309

66.7%

42.8%

19.5%

4.40

3.39

2.93

3

Dinelson Lamet

12.95

3.70

1.48

.311

73.6%

36.3%

19.7%

4.07

3.91

3.44

4

Max Scherzer

12.69

1.72

0.94

.321

78.7%

40.8%

11.6%

2.92

2.45

2.88

5

Blake Snell

12.36

3.36

1.18

.343

71.6%

39.0%

15.4%

4.29

3.32

3.31

(Note: The non-spoiler answer was Gerrit Cole last year, Chris Sale did not finish as a qualified starting pitcher or he would have joined the incredible group)

First of all, Dinelson Lamet is in some seriously good company. Secondly, only Max Scherzer is in the NL and if you extend the list to the top 10 pitchers in K/9 from last year only one more NL name pops up (Robby Ray at 12.13 K/9). In fact, of the top 20 Major League pitchers in strikeout rates from last year, only 6 reside in the NL (Yu Darvish, Jacob DeGrom, Stephen Strasburg, and Zac Gallen also make the list).

Dinelson Lamet tends to be somewhat of a streaky pitcher. If he can go on a hot streak for 12 straight starts coming out of the gate (ideally while limiting his walk rates), he has the best chance of obtaining Cy Young votes. At 9.79 K/9, Chris Paddack would have to have a substantially lower ERA to make up for having fewer strikeouts (see Hyun-Jin-Ryu last year).

If Dinelson Lamet is the number 2 starter and he starts every 5th game, you could expect his matchups to possibly be: ARI (home), SF (away), LAD (home), LAD (away), ARI (away), TEX (home), SEA (home), COL (away), OAK (away), SF (home), LAD (home), LAA (home)

That’s 7 of 12 starts at home and only one matchup at Coors field (he’d also miss the Astros series). If he can get through those two early matchups with the Dodgers, the rest of that schedule looks pretty soft.

I’ll admit, you’d have to give me some seriously good odds to bet on Lamet taking home the 2020 NL Cy Young, but hopefully I’ve convinced you that it’s at least a plausible proposition. There are few pitchers who miss bats quite as well as Dinelson and a 3.44 xFIP while coming back mid-season from Tommy John surgery is certainly quite impressive. 2020 will almost be his best chance at the hardware, so you can bet your donkey I’ll be watching intently.

Thanks for Reading,

John Precoda

P.S. MLBTradeRumors also did a nice writeup on Dinelson Lamet as a breakout candidate.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball staff or SB Nation.