Padres Preview: Miguel Diaz vs. Junior Guerra & the Milwuakee Brewers

A sweep is supposed to give a team some kind of momentum, right? Well, what happens when two teams both won their last three games? We’ll find out tonight, as the Padres are in Milwaukee to open a three-game series against the Brewers. While the Padres are coming off a three-game sweep of the Reds, the Brewers won three straight against the Cardinals after dropping the first game of a doubleheader last Tuesday. The big difference here is that the Padres are still scraping the bottom as they chase the league’s worst record, while the Brewers hold a lead over the Cubs atop the NL Central.

Miguel Diaz will be making his second career start today. In his first start, he came out like a man possessed, hitting triple digits in the radar gun right away. Perhaps he was overthrowing a little bit, as he faded quickly and was pulled before recording an out in the third inning. Given his relative lack of experience, it’s reasonable that he was a little pumped up for the game, but he’ll need to reel that enthusiasm back to be effective today. As a starter primarily throughout his minor league career, Diaz knows how to work his way through a lineup a few times, and the team would like to see him do it again today. If he struggles, the bullpen is well rested and will be ready to pick him up. The squad is facing a powerful offense, as the Brewers are near the league leaders in doubles and home runs. Diaz will need his ball to be moving to keep the hard contact at bay.

Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Junior Guerra is showing the talent that made him one of the game’s hottest pitching prospects. Through five starts, he’s 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 18 K’s across 25-2/3 innings pitched. His most recent start was against the Diamondbacks, and he took the loss as he gave up a season-high three earned runs. He’s not striking hitters out at a blazing rate, and he’s walking more than the typical starter, so what you dig into his FIP (5.39) and his xFIP (5.42), it’s evident that he’s been pretty lucky this season. The most remarkable number on his stat line is an unfathomable 91% of runners left on base, which is an unsustainable statistic. The Padres are one of the most aggressive baserunning teams in the league, so expect them to run early and often to get those runners around and across the plate.

In contrast with prior seasons, when the team has a day off between home and away series, they’re travelling immediately after the final game of the homestand so they have the day off to acclimate to the time and weather changes. Look for our guys to show up rested and ready to rock against these thumpers tonight!

Start time: 5:10PM PDT

Radio: 94.9FM, 860AM (Español)
TV: Fox Sports San Diego
Online: MLB.TV