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The PECOTA predictions were released this morning and the baseball world is in a tizzy. PECOTA is an bacronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, neither of which roll of the tongue very well. Nate Silver created it with a team from BP, years ago and if I understand it correctly the algorithm takes each player on the roster and predicts their career path and in turn the team's record based on the most logical outcome.
Last year the Padres were predicted to win 83 games and won 74, so these things don't always play out well. This morning when the number were released the Padres were supposed to finish in last place in the NL West with a 70-92 record. Already that number has changed and the Padres now are in 4th place with 77 wins.
|
W |
L |
RS |
RA |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
TAv |
FRAA |
|
|
Los Angeles Dodgers |
94 |
68 |
712 |
592 |
0.254 |
0.32 |
0.413 |
0.268 |
12.3 |
|
San Francisco Giants |
87 |
75 |
643 |
595 |
0.255 |
0.314 |
0.384 |
0.259 |
42.5 |
|
Arizona D-backs |
78 |
84 |
657 |
683 |
0.256 |
0.307 |
0.402 |
0.252 |
4.6 |
|
San Diego Padres |
77 |
85 |
651 |
692 |
0.247 |
0.302 |
0.386 |
0.25 |
-5.6 |
|
Colorado Rockies |
74 |
88 |
678 |
749 |
0.265 |
0.314 |
0.42 |
0.247 |
-3.5 |
The reason for the change is because the depth charts have been updated 3 times already.
Possibly, the depth charts got 3 updates since go-live, so standings have shifted around. https://t.co/ogqlO4mal9
— Harry Pavlidis (@harrypav) February 16, 2016
With any luck, we could be a playoff team by the end of the work day.