2015 Padres off to a hot start

Only three Padres teams have gotten off to a hotter start in their first 14 games than the 2015 Padres.  Of those three teams, two of them went to the World Series and the other finished at .500, go figure.  Still, the other two went to the World Series!  To believe that we'll end up there again we'll have to suspend some disbelief and ignore the other teams that started 9-5 and finished horribly.  We're going to the Fall Classic everybody!

Best records after 14 games

Year	Wins in first 14	Win % after first 14	Season Wins	Season Games	Season Win %
1975	9	64.29	71	162	43.83
2009	9	64.29	75	162	46.3
1991	9	64.29	84	162	51.85
1996	9	64.29	91	162	56.17
2015	9	64.29	9	14	64.29
1982	10	71.43	81	162	50
1984	10	71.43	92	162	56.79
1998	11	78.57	98	162	60.49

April has been a historically bad month for the Padres, so it's nice to see a bit of a reversal so far.

Padres record for each month

Month	Wins	Games	Win %
Apr	471	1046	45.03
Jul	545	1207	45.15
Sep	554	1198	46.24
Jun	576	1244	46.3
May	603	1279	47.15
Aug	610	1275	47.84
Oct	44	88	50
Mar	4	5	80

Speaking of hot starts, the Padres got off to one in last night's game against the Rockies. They scored 9 runs in the first two innings.  There was still a little bit of  doubt that crept into my mind about the outcome of the game, even then.  The Padres have lost 38 games in their history when they've scored 9 or more runs.  Nine of those games they lost in Colorado.

Games lost to Colorado when the Padres scored 9+ runs

Year	Date	Outcome	Opponent	H/A	Runs	Runs Against
1999	3-Jul	L	COL	@	10	12
1996	15-Apr	L	COL	@	9	11
1994	28-Jun	L	COL	@	9	10
1995	4-Aug	L	COL	@	12	14
2001	27-Sep	L	COL	@	9	13
2012	2-Sep	L	COL	@	10	11
2009	22-Sep	L	COL	@	10	11
1996	12-Jul	L	COL	@	12	13
2001	24-Sep	L	COL	@	11	15

Once the Padres scored 14 runs the victory was all but assured.  Only once in their history have they lost a game when they've scored more than 12 runs. The Cardinals beat the Padres 16-14 at Busch Stadium.  The Pads were down by 5 runs in the 9th but scored 3 in the final frame in a failed comeback attempt.

Padres record when they've scored 13+ runs

Runs Scored	Wins	Games	Win %
13	38	38	100
14	14	15	93.33
15	17	17	100
16	5	5	100
17	6	6	100
18	3	3	100
20	2	2	100

Scoring hasn't been much of a problem yet for this team.  They're scoring the 4th highest average runs in April at just over 5 a game.

Highest average runs in April

Year	Month	Games	Total Runs	Average Runs
1995	Apr	5	39	7.8
2000	Apr	25	137	5.48
1996	Apr	27	145	5.37
2015	Apr	14	73	5.21

If we're just comparing the first 14 games, then they're ranked 7th.  Last year in 2014 they were averaging 2.86 runs per game at this point.  It's been a whiplash type of season so far.

Most runs scored in the first 14 games

Year	Games	Total Runs	Average Runs
1996	14	90	6.43
1998	14	88	6.29
1995	14	84	6
2001	14	80	5.71
1990	14	78	5.57
2000	14	74	5.29
2015	14	73	5.21

In April they've kept the runs scored by their opponents to a minimum.  As of now they're ranked 7th.

Opponent runs in April

Year	Month	Games	Runs Allowed	Opponent Average Runs
1985	Apr	19	58	3.05
1986	Apr	21	69	3.29
2010	Apr	23	77	3.35
2002	Apr	26	91	3.5
1982	Apr	19	67	3.53
1972	Apr	16	57	3.56
2015	Apr	14	50	3.57

After 14 games they're tied for 9th.

Opponent runs in first 14 games

Year	Games	Runs Allowed	Opponent Average Runs
1985	14	41	2.93
1986	14	42	3
1997	14	42	3
1975	14	45	3.21
2008	14	47	3.36
1972	14	48	3.43
2011	14	48	3.43
2014	14	49	3.5
1992	14	50	3.57
1976	14	50	3.57
2015	14	50	3.57
1982	14	50	3.57

I don't think that we can draw too many conclusions at this point, except that the Padres are off to a hot start and they've been so much more fun to watch then in past years.  If they keep it up we'll be in for quite a ride.