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Last year after 20 games the Padres were tied for the worst start in franchise history with a record of 5-15. This year they have 4 more wins and sit at a 9-11 record. It's not a great start but only mildly embarrassing, like when the tag is hanging out the back of your t-shirt. Last night's loss and all those Padres left on base just made it feel worse.
The 1988 Padres were able to turn a 9-11 start into an 83 win season, the 1969 Padres pooped the bed and only managed 52 wins. Those are the two extremes in Padres history. If I did my math properly and used the formula supplied by Neil Paine correctly, the Padres are currently on pace for a 78 win season. You can read more about his procedure by following the link.
How to Predict MLB Records From Early Results | FiveThirtyEight
Another great thing about this procedure is that the "add 67 games of .500 ball" trick works no matter how far into the season a team is. It’s just as valid now as it will be in late July. The difference between now and then will be the amount of weight that a team’s observed results take in the formula.
Here's how all Padres teams have fared after 20 games.
Win % in first 20 Games
|
Year |
Wins in first 20 games |
Win % in first 20 |
Season Wins |
Season Games |
Season Win % |
|
1971 |
5 |
25 |
61 |
161 |
37.89 |
|
1987 |
5 |
25 |
65 |
162 |
40.12 |
|
2013 |
5 |
25 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
|
1974 |
6 |
30 |
60 |
162 |
37.04 |
|
1981 |
6 |
30 |
41 |
110 |
37.27 |
|
1970 |
6 |
30 |
63 |
162 |
38.89 |
|
1994 |
6 |
30 |
47 |
117 |
40.17 |
|
2012 |
6 |
30 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
|
1973 |
7 |
35 |
60 |
162 |
37.04 |
|
2003 |
7 |
35 |
64 |
162 |
39.51 |
|
2001 |
7 |
35 |
79 |
162 |
48.77 |
|
1978 |
7 |
35 |
84 |
162 |
51.85 |
|
1979 |
8 |
40 |
68 |
161 |
42.24 |
|
1977 |
8 |
40 |
69 |
162 |
42.59 |
|
2011 |
8 |
40 |
71 |
162 |
43.83 |
|
2006 |
8 |
40 |
88 |
162 |
54.32 |
|
1969 |
9 |
45 |
52 |
162 |
32.1 |
|
1993 |
9 |
45 |
61 |
162 |
37.65 |
|
1972 |
9 |
45 |
58 |
153 |
37.91 |
|
2008 |
9 |
45 |
63 |
162 |
38.89 |
|
2002 |
9 |
45 |
66 |
162 |
40.74 |
|
1980 |
9 |
45 |
73 |
163 |
44.79 |
|
1976 |
9 |
45 |
73 |
162 |
45.06 |
|
1999 |
9 |
45 |
74 |
162 |
45.68 |
|
1990 |
9 |
45 |
75 |
162 |
46.3 |
|
1997 |
9 |
45 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
|
1995 |
9 |
45 |
70 |
144 |
48.61 |
|
1983 |
9 |
45 |
81 |
163 |
49.69 |
|
2005 |
9 |
45 |
82 |
162 |
50.62 |
|
1988 |
9 |
45 |
83 |
161 |
51.55 |
|
1975 |
10 |
50 |
71 |
162 |
43.83 |
|
2000 |
10 |
50 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
|
1992 |
10 |
50 |
82 |
162 |
50.62 |
|
1989 |
10 |
50 |
89 |
162 |
54.94 |
|
1986 |
11 |
55 |
74 |
162 |
45.68 |
|
2009 |
11 |
55 |
75 |
162 |
46.3 |
|
1985 |
11 |
55 |
83 |
162 |
51.23 |
|
1991 |
11 |
55 |
84 |
162 |
51.85 |
|
2004 |
11 |
55 |
87 |
162 |
53.7 |
|
2007 |
12 |
60 |
89 |
163 |
54.6 |
|
2010 |
12 |
60 |
90 |
162 |
55.56 |
|
1996 |
13 |
65 |
91 |
162 |
56.17 |
|
1982 |
14 |
70 |
81 |
162 |
50 |
|
1984 |
14 |
70 |
92 |
162 |
56.79 |
|
1998 |
16 |
80 |
98 |
162 |
60.49 |