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The 2013 Padres are off to a miserable 1-5 start. I wanted to see how past Padres teams performed in their first 6 games and what that means for the rest of the season. It doesn't look good.
I was chatting with Dex about this data and he came to the conclusion, "when we start out sucky, we end sucky". I told him that even times when we started decent in the first 6 it didn't mean it'd end well. He modified his hypothesis, "when we start out good, we end sucky." Well, not necessarily, I showed him some more data points, he replied "haha all you're telling me is that we're gonna suck." Yeah, I guess I am.
The Padres averaged 2.76 wins in their first 6 games, in their 30 sub .500 seasons. They averaged 3.2 wins in their .500 and above seasons. Only in 1988 did they start 1-5 and finish above .500
The one time when the team started with zero wins was in 1974. The team finished with 60 wins, a 37% winning percentage. When the Padres won one game, they managed to win an average of 43% which would make the season win total average around 70. Two wins averaged 46% and 75 wins. Three wins meant an average of 45% and 72 wins. Four wins averaged 49% and 79 wins. The team only started the first 6 games with 5 wins 4 times. They finished with an average 52% and 85 wins.
First 6 games by Winning %
Year |
Wins in First 6 games |
Winning % in First 6 |
Season Wins |
Season Games |
Season Winning % |
1974 |
0 |
0 |
60 |
162 |
37.04 |
1987 |
1 |
16.67 |
65 |
162 |
40.12 |
1994 |
1 |
16.67 |
47 |
117 |
40.17 |
2002 |
1 |
16.67 |
66 |
162 |
40.74 |
1988 |
1 |
16.67 |
83 |
161 |
51.55 |
1973 |
2 |
33.33 |
60 |
162 |
37.04 |
1981 |
2 |
33.33 |
41 |
110 |
37.27 |
1993 |
2 |
33.33 |
61 |
162 |
37.65 |
1979 |
2 |
33.33 |
68 |
161 |
42.24 |
2012 |
2 |
33.33 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
1983 |
2 |
33.33 |
81 |
163 |
49.69 |
1982 |
2 |
33.33 |
81 |
162 |
50 |
1978 |
2 |
33.33 |
84 |
162 |
51.85 |
2006 |
2 |
33.33 |
88 |
162 |
54.32 |
2010 |
2 |
33.33 |
90 |
162 |
55.56 |
1969 |
3 |
50 |
52 |
162 |
32.1 |
1971 |
3 |
50 |
61 |
161 |
37.89 |
1972 |
3 |
50 |
58 |
153 |
37.91 |
1970 |
3 |
50 |
63 |
162 |
38.89 |
2003 |
3 |
50 |
64 |
162 |
39.51 |
1977 |
3 |
50 |
69 |
162 |
42.59 |
2011 |
3 |
50 |
71 |
162 |
43.83 |
1976 |
3 |
50 |
73 |
162 |
45.06 |
1986 |
3 |
50 |
74 |
162 |
45.68 |
1999 |
3 |
50 |
74 |
162 |
45.68 |
2000 |
3 |
50 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
2001 |
3 |
50 |
79 |
162 |
48.77 |
2005 |
3 |
50 |
82 |
162 |
50.62 |
1985 |
3 |
50 |
83 |
162 |
51.23 |
2004 |
3 |
50 |
87 |
162 |
53.7 |
1989 |
3 |
50 |
89 |
162 |
54.94 |
2008 |
4 |
66.67 |
63 |
162 |
38.89 |
1975 |
4 |
66.67 |
71 |
162 |
43.83 |
1990 |
4 |
66.67 |
75 |
162 |
46.3 |
2009 |
4 |
66.67 |
75 |
162 |
46.3 |
1997 |
4 |
66.67 |
76 |
162 |
46.91 |
1995 |
4 |
66.67 |
70 |
144 |
48.61 |
1992 |
4 |
66.67 |
82 |
162 |
50.62 |
2007 |
4 |
66.67 |
89 |
163 |
54.6 |
1998 |
4 |
66.67 |
98 |
162 |
60.49 |
1980 |
5 |
83.33 |
73 |
163 |
44.79 |
1991 |
5 |
83.33 |
84 |
162 |
51.85 |
1996 |
5 |
83.33 |
91 |
162 |
56.17 |
1984 |
5 |
83.33 |
92 |
162 |
56.79 |