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First 6 Padres games may be precursor of things to come

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Doug Pensinger

The 2013 Padres are off to a miserable 1-5 start. I wanted to see how past Padres teams performed in their first 6 games and what that means for the rest of the season. It doesn't look good.

I was chatting with Dex about this data and he came to the conclusion, "when we start out sucky, we end sucky". I told him that even times when we started decent in the first 6 it didn't mean it'd end well. He modified his hypothesis, "when we start out good, we end sucky." Well, not necessarily, I showed him some more data points, he replied "haha all you're telling me is that we're gonna suck." Yeah, I guess I am.

The Padres averaged 2.76 wins in their first 6 games, in their 30 sub .500 seasons. They averaged 3.2 wins in their .500 and above seasons. Only in 1988 did they start 1-5 and finish above .500

The one time when the team started with zero wins was in 1974. The team finished with 60 wins, a 37% winning percentage. When the Padres won one game, they managed to win an average of 43% which would make the season win total average around 70. Two wins averaged 46% and 75 wins. Three wins meant an average of 45% and 72 wins. Four wins averaged 49% and 79 wins. The team only started the first 6 games with 5 wins 4 times. They finished with an average 52% and 85 wins.

First 6 games by Winning %

Year

Wins in First 6 games

Winning % in First 6

Season Wins

Season Games

Season Winning %

1974

0

0

60

162

37.04

1987

1

16.67

65

162

40.12

1994

1

16.67

47

117

40.17

2002

1

16.67

66

162

40.74

1988

1

16.67

83

161

51.55

1973

2

33.33

60

162

37.04

1981

2

33.33

41

110

37.27

1993

2

33.33

61

162

37.65

1979

2

33.33

68

161

42.24

2012

2

33.33

76

162

46.91

1983

2

33.33

81

163

49.69

1982

2

33.33

81

162

50

1978

2

33.33

84

162

51.85

2006

2

33.33

88

162

54.32

2010

2

33.33

90

162

55.56

1969

3

50

52

162

32.1

1971

3

50

61

161

37.89

1972

3

50

58

153

37.91

1970

3

50

63

162

38.89

2003

3

50

64

162

39.51

1977

3

50

69

162

42.59

2011

3

50

71

162

43.83

1976

3

50

73

162

45.06

1986

3

50

74

162

45.68

1999

3

50

74

162

45.68

2000

3

50

76

162

46.91

2001

3

50

79

162

48.77

2005

3

50

82

162

50.62

1985

3

50

83

162

51.23

2004

3

50

87

162

53.7

1989

3

50

89

162

54.94

2008

4

66.67

63

162

38.89

1975

4

66.67

71

162

43.83

1990

4

66.67

75

162

46.3

2009

4

66.67

75

162

46.3

1997

4

66.67

76

162

46.91

1995

4

66.67

70

144

48.61

1992

4

66.67

82

162

50.62

2007

4

66.67

89

163

54.6

1998

4

66.67

98

162

60.49

1980

5

83.33

73

163

44.79

1991

5

83.33

84

162

51.85

1996

5

83.33

91

162

56.17

1984

5

83.33

92

162

56.79