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The San Diego Padres: Better than a .333 winning percentage?

Chase Headley, perhaps under the influence of Dagobah swamp gas wanders out of the on deck circle, to face the true adversary... HIMSELF.
Chase Headley, perhaps under the influence of Dagobah swamp gas wanders out of the on deck circle, to face the true adversary... HIMSELF.

At this point in the season, we've played several weeks worth of games and we've got ourselves a .333 record. At this rate, we will lose a third of our games, which means a 54 win season.

The goal to avoid a 100 loss season seems like a reasonable one.

At this point, using statistics and assuming that the first 30 games are representative, we're 95% positive that the winning percentage at the end of the year will fall somewhere between .180 and .490. That's a big swing.

On the low end, people continue to get hurt, the Padres continue to lose the close games, generally bad things happen and we're pretty unlucky... that's a 30 win season.

We're probably going to win more than 30 games.

On the high end, the Padres start doing amazing things, and we get really really lucky and we could juuuust touch 79 wins.

We're probably not going to win 79 games, either. If we somehow manage to win 79 games, we'd be spitting in the face of mathematics so much that really we'd have to field a different team completely. Though at the same time, injuries being what they are, we probably will be fielding a completely different team by the time it's all said and done.

70 wins though? That seems like it should be doable. With 132 games left in the season, we just have to win 60 of them. That's a .455 winning percentage. The Padres have that in them, don't they?

Maybe we should just hope for little things. Like we've won a series now. Let's try to get three wins in a row. That would be nice. Or let's try to not lose more than three in a row. That would be pretty good too.

In the end, Padres Fan, just know that this is a bitter year, but people appreciate bitter. You have to have the down tough times to truly appreciate the good times.

Quick: What was the best Star Wars movie?

That's right, Empire Strikes Back. Everybody over the age of 12 agrees with this sentiment.

But why was it good? In his sophomore year, Luke forces himself into the rotation, goes up against a wily vet and goes down with the equivalent of Tommy John's surgery. Han loses the season with the equivalent of a torn ACL. Obi Wan is literally a ghost of his former self. Lando is all cocky making like he's on our side, but turns out to be a loud mouth, glad handing sell-out, not really good for any production. The bad guys generally ambush the good guys at every turn.

And yet it's the best movie, because we have to appreciate the dark times or else we have no context for the good times like Boston Fan born after 1985.

So just appreciate our .333 season like you appreciate Empire Strikes Back. Have faith that we're watching an American movie and not some really weird depressing European movie where all the good guys die at the end.

This is America, goshdarnit. We're gonna get a happy ending eventually. It just may take a little while. After all, Jedi came out 3 years after Empire.

We just have to be able to appreciate this year for what it is... The best installment of the trilogy. Kinda.