Maybe this is why I have trouble getting into fantasy baseball.
Fantasy football, I usually homer out and end up grabbing a Charger or two, but in the last 8-10 years, who could blame me? That's a decade of solid fantasy production in Tomlinson, Brees, Rivers, Gates, VJ, Charger D, etc.
Fantasy baseball though, you more often than not get burned picking any Padres position player to be anything more than a deep backup to a better option.
There are and have been exceptions of course, but for the most part, you're sticking to pitching with the Padres, and even then, 2012 will be a sleeper year for the Padres.
You may think to yourself, "But Dex doesn't even play fantasy baseball" and you may be right, but that doesn't keep me from knowing a thing or two.
Here's what you need to know about the San Diego Padres and Fantasy Baseball this season along with my Scientific Wild Ass Guesses:
Cameron Maybin is good for 30+ steals
If you get to the point in your draft where you realize you've been punting steals, then take a look at Cameron Maybin. Petco will depress just about everything else about him and 2011 was a breakout so expect a slight regression, but there's no reason why the steal-happy Padres couldn't get him beyond 30 and potentially to 40 again this season.
Gaslamp Ball SWAG.: 580AB, 150H, 13HR, 74RBI, 38SB
Avoid Padres Offense Otherwise
Carlos Quentin? Punt. Yonder Alonso? Punt. Hundley? Punt. Everybody (except Cam for steals). Punt.
There's nothing to like about the Padres offense in Petco Park.
Huston Street is good for 30-40 saves
If you're going out and looking up projections, I think you're seeing numbers in the high 20s to low 30s for saves and Huston Street. Personally, I think that ignores the fact that the Padres strategy is geared to get the closer involved as often as possible and Huston Street should find his form just fine pitching at sea level. That projection is low enough though that Street probably is a sleeper in any league that doesn't have Padres fans in it. Only thing holding back street is if he struggles, BuBy (Buddy/Byrnes) have options for the future that they might want to try out.
Gaslamp Ball SWAG: 46IP, 36S, 3.06ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 52K
Cory Luebke will be sick
Not like sick, draft him right away sick, but he will start to prove himself out as top of the rotation. All signs point to Cory Luebke breaking out this season. His wins were depressed last season, but every other stat points to a solid major league pitcher. Again though, we're talking about a sleeper here in leagues short on Padres fans.
Gaslamp Ball SWAG:160IP, 14W, 6L, 3.06ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 180K
Keep in mind that it took a good amount of my being not to predict 50 steals for Cam, 50 saves for Street, 20 wins for Luebke and a cycle for Will Venable. Just keep that in mind.
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