I look to take a stab at that question by running projected lineups through my baseball simulator. The simulator takes into account such things (but not limited to) as defense, base running, bullpens, park factors, home field advantage and a proprietary set of player projections as input. In this exercise, each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50). Details after the jump.
| Padres Starting Lineup | Dodgers Starting Lineup | ||||||||
| Padres vs LHP | Padres vs RHP | Dodgers vs LHP | Dodgers vs RHP | ||||||
| Order | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | |
| 1 | SS | J.Bartlett | SS | J.Bartlett | SS | R.Furcal | SS | R.Furcal | |
| 2 | 2B | O.Hudson | 2B | O.Hudson | CF | M.Kemp | CF | M.Kemp | |
| 3 | 3B | C.Headley | 3B | C.Headley | RF | A.Ethier | RF | A.Ethier | |
| 4 | RF | R.Ludwick | RF | R.Ludwick | 3B | C.Blake | 1B | J.Loney | |
| 5 | 1B | J.Cantu | 1B | B.Hawpe | 2B | J.Uribe | 3B | C.Blake | |
| 6 | LF | C.Denorfia | LF | W.Venable | LF | M.Thames | 2B | J.Uribe | |
| 7 | CF | C.Maybin | CF | C.Maybin | 1B | J.Loney | LF | J.Gibbons | |
| 8 | C | G.Zaun | C | N.Hundley | C | R.Barajas | C | R.Barajas | |
| Padres Rotation | Dodgers Rotation | ||
| #1 | Mat Latos | #1 | Clayton Kershaw |
| #2 | Clayton Richard | #2 | Chad Billingsley |
| #3 | Wade LeBlanc | #3 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| #4 | Aaron Harang | #4 | Ted Lilly |
| #5 | Tim Stauffer | #5 | Jon Garland |
| Simulation Results | |||
| Away Starter | Home Starter | Favorite | Win Prob |
| Mat Latos | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 55.54% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Mat Latos | Padres | 53.87% |
| Mat Latos | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 53.87% |
| Chad Billingsley | Mat Latos | Padres | 56.37% |
| Mat Latos | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 52.50% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Mat Latos | Padres | 58.18% |
| Mat Latos | Ted Lilly | Padres | 52.84% |
| Ted Lilly | Mat Latos | Padres | 61.37% |
| Mat Latos | Jon Garland | Padres | 55.76% |
| Jon Garland | Mat Latos | Padres | 65.06% |
| Clayton Richard | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 60.58% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Clayton Richard | Padres | 50.86% |
| Clayton Richard | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 58.18% |
| Chad Billingsley | Clayton Richard | Padres | 53.01% |
| Clayton Richard | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 54.62% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Clayton Richard | Padres | 53.81% |
| Clayton Richard | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 51.41% |
| Ted Lilly | Clayton Richard | Padres | 56.19% |
| Clayton Richard | Jon Garland | Padres | 52.18% |
| Jon Garland | Clayton Richard | Padres | 61.25% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 67.23% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Wade LeBlanc | Dodgers | 56.64% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 64.88% |
| Chad Billingsley | Wade LeBlanc | Dodgers | 54.41% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 62.80% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Wade LeBlanc | Dodgers | 52.81% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 58.72% |
| Ted Lilly | Wade LeBlanc | Dodgers | 50.17% |
| Wade LeBlanc | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 55.13% |
| Jon Garland | Wade LeBlanc | Padres | 54.33% |
| Aaron Harang | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 67.06% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Aaron Harang | Dodgers | 55.69% |
| Aaron Harang | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 64.89% |
| Chad Billingsley | Aaron Harang | Dodgers | 53.94% |
| Aaron Harang | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 61.68% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Aaron Harang | Dodgers | 53.26% |
| Aaron Harang | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 58.50% |
| Ted Lilly | Aaron Harang | Dodgers | 50.36% |
| Aaron Harang | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 55.95% |
| Jon Garland | Aaron Harang | Padres | 55.36% |
| Tim Stauffer | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 60.32% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Tim Stauffer | Dodgers | 50.38% |
| Tim Stauffer | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 59.55% |
| Chad Billingsley | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 52.37% |
| Tim Stauffer | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 57.23% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 52.45% |
| Tim Stauffer | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 51.89% |
| Ted Lilly | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 55.39% |
| Tim Stauffer | Jon Garland | Padres | 51.32% |
| Jon Garland | Tim Stauffer | Padres | 60.23% |
When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Dodgers have an average win probability of 51.96%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Dodgers would win 84.17 games and the Padres would win 77.83. The simulator is showing the Dodgers as the stronger of the two teams, but it is so close that randomness and injuries could determine which team finishes higher in the standings.
