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San Diego Padres Predictions from the Bill James Handbook 2010

I've got a sneak peak at the new Bill James Handbook 2010 and I want to go through and check out what we can look forward to next season. Bill James has been putting these handbooks together forevs and I always look at them with an eye towards who might do what, but also an eye towards pretending that I have an even better predictive model using the guts of a chicken splayed out over a burning Ouija board.

Let's check it...

Age G AB H 2B 3B HR R RBI RC RC27 BB SO SB CS SB% Avg OBP Slg OPS
Alfonzo,Eliezer 31 64 189 49 10 0 7 19 25 23 4.27 6 48 1 0 1 0.259 0.286 0.423 0.709
Blanco,Henry 38 82 228 51 11 0 6 22 23 23 3.38 20 52 0 0 0 0.224 0.286 0.351 0.637
Blanks,Kyle 23 142 524 145 23 3 25 79 93 89 6.07 66 140 3 2 0.6 0.277 0.362 0.475 0.837
Cabrera,Everth 23 145 545 146 29 11 3 90 44 74 4.68 67 117 37 12 0.76 0.268 0.353 0.378 0.731
Eckstein,David 35 128 444 120 21 1 3 57 35 49 3.91 34 40 4 2 0.67 0.27 0.337 0.342 0.68
Giles,Brian 39 92 292 77 17 1 7 40 36 43 5.18 47 36 2 1 0.67 0.264 0.371 0.401 0.772
Gonzalez,Adrian 28 161 614 171 37 2 35 97 106 117 6.87 87 127 1 0 1 0.279 0.372 0.516 0.888
Gonzalez,Edgar 32 63 112 30 6 0 3 13 13 15 4.7 11 22 1 1 0.5 0.268 0.344 0.402 0.746
Gwynn,Tony 27 88 212 56 8 2 1 29 14 24 3.9 22 32 10 4 0.71 0.264 0.336 0.335 0.671
Headley,Chase 26 149 528 150 36 3 17 72 72 87 5.94 63 129 8 3 0.73 0.284 0.365 0.455 0.819
Hundley,Nick 26 84 264 60 14 1 10 30 38 31 3.93 25 64 3 1 0.75 0.227 0.297 0.402 0.698
Kouzmanoff,Kevin 28 144 512 141 32 2 20 59 84 74 5.17 29 95 1 1 0.5 0.275 0.327 0.463 0.79
Rodriguez,Luis 30 95 244 62 13 1 2 27 20 27 3.84 28 21 1 1 0.5 0.254 0.331 0.34 0.671
Salazar,Oscar 32 88 246 72 16 1 9 31 40 40 5.94 18 33 1 1 0.5 0.293 0.341 0.476

0.817

Venable,Will 27 120 395 99 18 2 13 53 48 50 4.36 34 95 7 2 0.78 0.251 0.313 0.405 0.718

 

OK. So what does all of this mean? I'll tell you. It means we're effed.

I mean, maybe we aren't effed-effed, but still. Didn't this team feel faster in August and September? Didn't it feel more powerful? Was that just an illusion?

If this is the projection for our hitters, what does our starting lineup looking like at this point?

  1. Everth Cabrera SS
  2. David Eckstein 2B
  3. Adrian Gonzalez 1B
  4. Kevin Kouzmanoff 3B
  5. Chase Headley LF
  6. Kyle Blanks RF
  7. Will Venable CF
  8. Nick Hundley C

Is that really it? Doesn't it look weird to look at?

Bright Spots:

  • Everth Cabrera and Kyle Blanks both are predicted to up their production and both are young dudes. Everth is especially exciting for his speed and Kyle is exciting for the power. It's like Mantle and Maris! Blanks will probably end up protecting Adrian before the year is out, but probably not to start the season.
  • Adrian Gonzalez, while not predicted to put 40 over the fence next year, is still slated for another 100+ RBI season with close to 100 runs. Also, the doubles total bodes well for producing runs, but not so well for the needy children, dependent on these sadistic charities who will only donate money when Adrian puts a home run charge in the ball.

Mehs:

  • Kevin Kouzmanoff's numbers look kinda nice and I'm sure he'll total pretty close, but (sorry Kouz fans) I'm also thinking that a lot of the numbers will be put up in garbagy, unclutchy ways.
  • Wouldn't it be nice to have a catcher?
  • Something about Tony Gwynn's line looks really depressing.
  • Brian Giles is still on the team? How is he predicted to have so many ABs? Am I reading this right?

Tomorrow, let's look at pitchers. That should be scary fun.

In the meantime, the handbook is available for preorder. It would be rad of you to purchase the book through us. Maybe let's take some time right now to make really super bold predictions and then rub them in Bill James's face when ours turn out terrific.