At jbox' suggestion ...

This mimic's a poll I have posted at predictify.com, as linked to in this FanPost:

http://www.gaslampball.com/2008/4/26/461256/is-trevor-done

If you have a better way to pose a question about how Trevor will perform in the near-term, please do so ... the "closer" situation with the Padres is pretty complex right now because I don't believe they have an option that's clearly better than Trevor.

But I am convinced that Trevor will not be successful >80% of the time from here on out ... based primarily on what I've seen from him a few times ... and comments made by a friend of mine who has seen all of his outings so far this season ... and being heavily swayed by the walk he issued to Jose Cruz Jr with 2-outs in the 9th inning on April 2nd (http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN200804020.shtml).

Poll

What will be the ratio of the number of Saves + Wins that Trevor Hoffman gets credited with versus the number of Blown Saves + Losses that Trevor Hoffman gets credited with, during the month of May, 2008?

• > 4 (ie. roughly >80% success)
• 2-4 (ie. roughly 65% to 80% success)
• 1-2 (ie. roughly 50% to 65% success)
• <50% success)

  71 votes | Results

There are many ways to look at "who is the Padres closer of the future"?  For a while now, the roto community has called this "CIW" = Closer in Waiting ... but that has a more short-term focus ... ie. who's the guy who will close "now" if the currently closer gets hurt.  Well, I'm interested in 3 questions ...

1. Who can/should close for the Padres if Trevor were to get hurt today?

2. If Trevor's performance makes it clear that he's "done", who can/should close for the Padres at that time?

3. Who can/should close for the Padres in 2009 and beyond?

These questions come from the hot debate on Trevor's status ... I happen to think he's now "done" ... and what I mean by that is that I no longer expect him to be successful in >80% of his appearances.

I've created a group-think way to see what the current general consensus on this is ... Here’s a way to chime in on the question of “Is Trevor Done?” …

http://www.predictify.com/auctionview.aspx?ID=3873

The question for the group is this: What will be the ratio of the number of Saves + Wins that Trevor Hoffman, pitcher for the San Diego Padres, gets credited with versus the number of Blown Saves + Losses that Trevor Hoffman gets credited with, during the month of May, 2008?

You have until the end of April to weigh in … so far, 19 folks have predicted … and the distribution of preditions so far is pretty mixed.

We’ll see if this helps us learn anything … as we all struggle with the 3 complex questions at the top of this post ...

Thank-you, Gaslamp Ball, for a forum for this discussion ...

LM

Just to get things started ... this comment from an article today @ BP seemed worth noting ...

If they lean towards college pitching, both Brett Cecil and Nick Schmidt could be available. However, the Padres have a long history of selecting California players, and if so, that top pick could be used on James Simmons.