Peavy should pitch on Sunday

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 7:28 PM PDT in News

SignOnSanDiego is reporting that Black is saving Peavy for a possible Monday game. I bet Bud Black was the type of kid who ate all his gross Halloween candy first and saved the good stuff until April when it became dry or his mom threw it out.

Black said he'll stick with his plan of starting Brett Tomko on Sunday, preferring to save ace Jake Peavy for a potential one-game playoff on Monday.

Now if it were me, I'm going for the win tomorrow. I'm starting Peavy Sunday, give them the best chance of clinching the Wild Card. I think we have a better chance of beating an eliminated Brewers team than a team that is also doing everything in their power to win the Wild Card. The team that we would have to play Monday is going to be a better team than the Brewers, better record and they have a vested interest in the outcome. The Pads would also be coming off a travel day.

We don't want to waste Jake if we don't have to," Black said. "And if we need him for a playoff game, we have him right there - full rested, not on three days' rest."

We wouldn't be wasting Peavy if he does his job and wins the game tomorrow. That's not a waste in my mind. If we go to a Monday game we are wasting our bullpen and tiring out the whole team by making them travel and play. Not that it matters but Peavy would get a chance to go for his 20th victory and he wouldn't have to pitch the first game of Post Season play. If Peavy does pitch on Monday then he might not be ready for even the second game of the post season.

Go for the jugular now, we don't want to have the whole season balancing on one game on Monday.

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Go with Tomko

I'd go with Tomko as well.
The reason being NOT to waste Jake.
There's a very good chance we'll win tomorrow regardless of who pitches because the Brewers don't have quality pitching...
Assuming a Colorado win tonight... then we can also avoid a playoff game if Colorado loses tomorrow and one of the NL east teams lose tomorrow.

So, taking this into consideration... I'd rather have two very good chances to advance than one really good chance followed by a completely mediocre one should we get unlucky. Who would we start on Monday if we lose on Sunday? Not Maddux, not Young... Cassel/Tomko? If that's the case, then I'd rather have:

Tomko followed by Peavy (fully rested) if needed against a really good team than...
Peavy (3 days rest) followed by Tomko/Cassel if needed against a really good team.

-Zen Blade

by Zen Blade on Sep 29, 2007 7:36 PM PDT reply actions

If Peavy clinches tomorrow

then we aren't really wasting him, we're using him to clinch.

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 7:40 PM PDT up reply actions

ok, but

if he doesn't, then we're do or die with Tomko. Do we really want to be in a do or die situation with Tomko at the helm?

The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world.

by Axion on Sep 29, 2007 7:47 PM PDT up reply actions

but not for game 1

If we use him Sunday... no way is Peavy ready for Game 1.

We have a good chance of winning tomorrow regardless of the pitcher we start.
-Zen Blade

by Zen Blade on Sep 29, 2007 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Peavy

hasn't done well when starting a playoff series. Now if he has to start Monday he definitely won't start and may not be ready to pitch until the third game right?

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 7:50 PM PDT up reply actions

I also don't want to hope for Colorado to lose

I want to control out own destiny.

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions

LaRussa

Had the exact same dilemma last year. Everyone was pressuring him to start Carpenter for the final game...to ensure a victory and the post season. He went with a lesser starter.

It worked.

Then Carp was ready to go for the playoffs and we all know what happened last year.

Trust Black. He may know what's up and actually be rightfully saving Peavy for more important work.

by thenerdhater on Sep 29, 2007 7:36 PM PDT reply actions

So you're saying

if we start Tomko we win the World Series?

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I gotta agree with black.

Peavy is the closest thing we can get to a guaranteed win, and on the day we need that most is where I want him. Game #163 is more critical than game #162.

Using him early may spoil any chances. I hate to bring up the last time, because the time before that on short rest he was fine. (iirc)

The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world.

by Axion on Sep 29, 2007 7:44 PM PDT reply actions

I just added this to my post

but if Peavy goes tomorrow he gives the entire team rest on Monday. It also gives the entire bullpen rest. Peavy also has a better chance of winning tomorrow then on Monday.

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 7:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Go for the kill!!!

I trust that Bud knows what to do with an ace pitcher, but we gotta win this thing!!! I was exposed to part of the phillies-nats game (before i took a nap and woke up to t. gwynn jr hitting that 3b) and Manuel used like 4 pitchers in for innings, yes the phillies don't have the best pitching staff, but he was trying to win! This is the playoff push we're talking about! Throw all yur cards on the table!!!! If PV pitches, he's gonna do all he possibly can to win that game...Like Herm Edwards once said...YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! HELLO???

Does anyone know if any non-san diegans can watch the game on tv tomorrow????

by offspeedkills on Sep 29, 2007 7:50 PM PDT reply actions

Peavy has shown clearly

3 days rest don't work for him. I distinctly remember us second guessing Bud Black starting Peavy on 3 days rest after we saw just how effective he was.

by bktabinga on Sep 29, 2007 8:24 PM PDT reply actions

Peavy

took it easy on his last outing...it was like he was throwing BP. He's got extra in the tank this time.

by Jonny Dub on Sep 30, 2007 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions

Jake Peavy is a warrior.

If Jake Peavy decides to win on three days rest, he will. Besides, his last start was rather "easy". I just like saying his name. Jake Peavy... Jake Peavy...

"You get nervous when you see those guys come into the shower... you definitely don't close your eyes in there, even when you're shampooing." ~CY

by TheThirdGonzalez on Sep 29, 2007 8:55 PM PDT reply actions

There's only one problem

If the Pads lose with Tomko, they can wind up in a four-way tie if the Mets/Phils/Rocks all win. I know it's implausible, but then you're stuck playing a game against the Mets/Phils loser followed by yet another game agaisnt the Rockies. jbox is dead on...a Peavy win Monday gives everyone a much needed day off. If Tomko loses, you have to use Peavy anyway on Monday and you've just lost a day of rest.

by King Folderol on Sep 29, 2007 8:57 PM PDT reply actions

Who has the better chance of winning?

Tomko vs. Brewers
Peavy vs. Brewers
Peavy vs. Ace Pitcher of Wild Card Contender in their home ball park

by jbox on Sep 29, 2007 9:38 PM PDT reply actions

Exactly.

Nobody seems to get this point... Anything less than Jake getting #20 would be LaRussa-ish.

"You get nervous when you see those guys come into the shower... you definitely don't close your eyes in there, even when you're shampooing." ~CY

by TheThirdGonzalez on Sep 30, 2007 1:49 AM PDT up reply actions

Best chance

IF there is a playoff game, with all the different scenarios the Padres could possibly play the Mets, Phils or Rockies...why are you just assuming that all three of those teams would be able to have their ace available to pitch? To assume that no matter what we'll have to oppose the other teams best starter is completely wrong.

Colorado: Their number one is Jeff Francis. He pitched Saturday...so, he's out for Monday. I guess Franklin Morales could pitch on three days rest. So, that leaves Monday's starter as Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79 ERA) or Elmer Dessens (2-2, 7.15 ERA).

IF we play a team from the East it would be on Tuesday.

Philadelphia: Their number one is Cole Hamels. He pitched Friday so he could start on short rest Tuesday. Or, we'd face Rookie Kyle Kendrick (10-4, 3.87 ERA). Great numbers, but he was back in Double A ball in early June.

New York: Not sure who their number one is. Glavine? Pedro? Maine? Tuesday would be Pedro's turn in the rotation. Regardless...Glavine and Maine wouldn't be available anyway.

So, what you're really looking at is:

Peavy vs. Fogg on Monday in Colorado
Peavy vs. Kendrick on Tuesday at Petco
Peavy vs. Pedro on Tuesday at Shea

Pitching Tomko is the way to go today. For once, I agree with Buddy. If Peavy wins today you have a still-injured Maddux starting Game One of the NLDS...or worse yet, Tomko going in a do-or-die tiebreaker game.

We win today with Tomko and the bullpen. Then we have our rotation set for the NLDS. Peavy, CY, Maddux.

Enough with this garbage about not wanting to start Jake in a Game One. In a five game series the first game is HUGE. In the last three seasons, the team that won game one, won their series 9 out of 12 times. We want Peavy on that mound for Game One. 2005 the guy had a broken rib. Last year's Jake was NOT the same as this years Jake...and besides, our guys couldn't get any damned runs off Carpenter anyway.

Is it a gamble to start Tomko today? Hell, yes. But the rewards could be huge.

by Drama on Sep 30, 2007 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Fine, make sense, see if I care.

by Demoira on Sep 30, 2007 7:44 AM PDT up reply actions

couldn't have said it better

by socalgirl30 on Sep 30, 2007 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions

My vote is for Tomko

As of this post the poll is 50/50.

My opinion is based solely on optimism (oh, foolish optimism) and hoping the team remains focused and optimistic.

The Padres have played 16 games in a row. They're tired and they've had some issues this last stretch but after blowing the clinch today and knowing that all they need is one game this team has got to believe that they can make it. I think that by sending Peavy out on the mound Sunday it sends a message that only Peavy can win us a playoff birth. One guy isn't going to get us in the playoffs and one guy won't win us a championship. And I think we all know what happens when Peavy thinks the whole thing rests on his shoulders (last two playoff seasons anyone?).

Let Tomko pitch, he's been fairly solid since he's been here and he isn't eligible for postseason so we wouldn't be working someone who would need the rest later.

Besides all that, we need some offense! Even if we do send Peavy the way he pitches won't do us any good if we don't score any runs. Pitching will help us only so far but lackadaisical offense doesn't get us anywhere.

Keep the optimism!

by lab mouse on Sep 30, 2007 12:04 AM PDT reply actions

Gotta go wih Jake

He had a cracked rib in 2005 and wasn't himself all last year because of the WBC. I don't use those as barometers. I use THIS year. He is hands down the best pitcher in baseball. I was against him starting on 3 days rest that last time because there was a month left to go in the season and it was completely unecessary at the time. Now it is completely necessary. Go for the kill. He is your best and the best in the game at this point. Get in the playoffs. Worry about who you'll pitch in Game 1 after you've earned the right to worry about a game 1. This is why you have a Jake Peavy, It's for games like this. You'd be foolish not to go with your best. JAKE PEAVY IS THE MAN!!!!

Padres for life

by sdgaucho on Sep 30, 2007 1:40 AM PDT reply actions

before reading this post and these comments

i was thinking that pitching tomko tomorrow is the best idea. Now i am starting to have second thoughts....

it is a very conservative style to save peavy for an elimination game rather than to use him to clinch early. the best point jbox made i think was this:

all we need is a win to get in the post season

would you rather have peavy vs. the brewers
or peavy vs the hot wildcard contenders possibly on the road

hands down the easiest time to win and kill would be by using peavy tomorrow. its risky, because if we lose we are screwed and stuck with tomko monday.

this is by far the toughest decision black will make all year long. i hope he looks more into which pitcher matches up best with what team.

needless to say, we need to score some runs tomorrow.

threepeat?(never thought id be able to say that about the padres!)

by Peavyforprez08 on Sep 30, 2007 2:03 AM PDT reply actions

Yeah it's tough.

Lots of persuasive arguments on both sides. I just really wanna win. :D

The right man in the wrong place can make all the difference in the world.

by Axion on Sep 30, 2007 4:20 AM PDT reply actions

I vote for Tomko

Which, of course, means that I agree completely with jbox here.

by Rox Girl on Sep 30, 2007 4:22 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs

That was funny

by Winfield's Ghost on Sep 30, 2007 6:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Could it be

that after the great Three Days of Rest Experiment from earlier in the season with Jake, that they saw something that indicates he would be less than himself if he went today?

Doesn't matter anyway. We're not winning today, we're not winning any stupid playoff play-in game and we're not going to the postseason.

We're done.

by Winfield's Ghost on Sep 30, 2007 6:53 AM PDT reply actions

I tend think that Jake should get the start

because we should be playing to win today, not tomorrow. It's like LaRussa leaving Pujols on the bench in the ninth on the off chance that the game goes into extra innings. I don't want to win in extra innings, I want to win it right now.

On the flip side, I tend to think that Buddy knows this. So while my vote is for Jake, I agree with WG that there is probably some piece of information that we lack which has led Black et al to the decision to leave Jake on the bench.

by Demoira on Sep 30, 2007 7:09 AM PDT reply actions

LaRussa was in a position to lose

We're guaranteed extras (games). While I would rather have anyone-- literally, anyone on the planet-- pitch for us instead of Bombko, I grudgingly agree with it.

How's this if we somehow manage to keep the game close?

Tomko starts, Jake can pitch one inning if Tomko's pulled early, then we go to the bullpen. Heath Bell should pitch the 8th and the 9th unless we have a 2-3 run lead. I don't care if his arm falls off-- he's better than Trevor.

by Dalton on Sep 30, 2007 8:12 AM PDT up reply actions

Trevor can blow 15 saves a year

but he needs to save that game yesterday.

by goose1 on Sep 30, 2007 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Tomko-Hampson-Heath

Trevor should be 'unavailable' today. Due to 'flu-like symptoms.'

by goose1 on Sep 30, 2007 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

If he blew 15 saves this year

That game yesterday would have had no meaning

by CurbEnthusiasm on Sep 30, 2007 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Exactly! I can't wait to have him back!

Trevor has had a great career. And as with all great careers, we should definitely sentimentally let it continue on way past when he's effective....

Yesterday was torture.

by goose1 on Sep 30, 2007 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions

ineffective?

Don't forget that there actually is somebody playing against us. It's not like the blown save was because Trevor couldn't get their best hitter out.

by Dex on Sep 30, 2007 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions

I wish it was because he couldn't

get Fielder/Hart/Braun out....

It hurts too much to have it be Tony Gwynn Jr. A person I'm not supposed to hate.

I love Trevor. Like, BFF. Totally. And, yes, Jr. hit a pretty good pitch. Plenty of credit to TG Jr.

Should I blame Hairston instead? For never bringing one of B. Giles 3 doubles around to score? Should I blame Giles baserunning? I don't want to blame anyone. I want to go back in time and win that game.

On the plus side: AT LEAST WE AREN'T METS FANS. Holy God. Glavine: 1/3 IP. 5 runs. Currently 7-0 Marlins in the 1st. With Dontrelle pitching.

by goose1 on Sep 30, 2007 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions

I JUST FOUND AN OUTFIELDER TO

REPLACE TERRMEL SLEDGE OR WHOEVER WOULD BE THERE FOR NEXT SEASON:

TONY FRIGGIN GWYNN JR!!!!

- Danny

by Padres fanatic92014 on Sep 30, 2007 8:55 AM PDT reply actions

ummm

somebody cut danny's caffeine supply off. he's not gonna make it through the game if he's losing it this early in the day.

by Dex on Sep 30, 2007 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions

no SERIOUSLy

i know the timing could not be worse, but after the season, esp. with the whole "tony gwynn era" thing we had a while ago, i think he'd make a great fit. why not??? name a better one, dex

- Danny

by Padres fanatic92014 on Sep 30, 2007 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions

He doesn't want to live in his dad's shadow

He wants to build his own career

by CurbEnthusiasm on Sep 30, 2007 9:26 AM PDT up reply actions

And

Hairston hasn't totally sucked so far.

by Winfield's Ghost on Sep 30, 2007 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions

ok, so we have

hairston, giles, cameron
gwynn could be a good pinch hitter/backup

- Danny

by Padres fanatic92014 on Sep 30, 2007 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions

I have no interest in Gwynn Jr.

I hate him now. His name might as well be Curt Schilling Jr.

by goose1 on Sep 30, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Dude

Imagine how much pressure that kid would have playing in this town.

by Gone Savage on Sep 30, 2007 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions

Tomko Sunday: the right call

Pitching Jake today would be the scared move. We'll beat the Brewers with Tomko and whoever else in the bullpen and Jake will start game 1 vs. the Phillipolitans. Something goes wrong with this plan, then the Rockies or whoever has got to beat Peavy the next day.

Could be the difference between 1 and 2 starts for Jake in the division series. And we do remember what happened the last time he pitched on short rest, right?

TOMKO TOMKO TOMKO. Say it until you start believing.

by Billy Almon on Sep 30, 2007 10:20 AM PDT reply actions

METS DOWN 4-0 IN FIRST

UNBELIEVABLY UGLY PLAY

by Dalton on Sep 30, 2007 10:22 AM PDT reply actions

ugly? i think its beautiful

if you're us, the phillies or the rockies!

- Danny

by Padres fanatic92014 on Sep 30, 2007 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions

GLAVINE HITS DONTRELLE

Walks in a run. Gets pulled after 1/3rd of an inning. 5 earned; bases loaded; 1 out. TOP OF THE 1ST. WOW.

by Dalton on Sep 30, 2007 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions

WOW. glavine pulled after 1/3 of an iinning

5 ER .1 IP
for that games, his ERA is 135.

- Danny

by Padres fanatic92014 on Sep 30, 2007 10:33 AM PDT reply actions

make that 7 earned

by Dalton on Sep 30, 2007 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions

And it ends: 7-0, 12 batters faced

Ouch. Go Marlins!

by Demoira on Sep 30, 2007 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Dontrelle and M. Cabrera

are, like, totally my fave right now.

This Mets implosion is leaving me more at peace. The Padres like to make things hard on themselves. But they have never this season put us through anything remotely like this. A must win game today? Pssh. How about blowing a 7 game lead with 17 games left to play?

by goose1 on Sep 30, 2007 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions