What's the Magic Number?

by jbox on Sep 17, 2007 2:49 PM PDT in News

Can somebody figure out our Magic Number?

Keep in mind that we are actually 3 games back from the division lead since the D-Backs took the season series.

It also might be cool if we got the Wild Card magic number. Just so we know when we will clinch the post season.

Gaslamp Baller CM Strapz also pointed out that Baseball Prospectus has the odds of the Pads winning the title and winning the wild card.

Currently the Pads have a 30% chance of getting the NL West title and 65% of making the playoffs.

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Magic Number

The magic number of any first place team is the elimination number for the second place team. Therefore, AZ's magic number is 12 for the Division, although I guess you're right about them owning the season series. SD's magic number is 13 for the Wild Card.

"Wow, thank you for finding the missing piece to the puzzle that is Wiggins." - wiggins4ever

by TheGrandHatching on Sep 17, 2007 3:01 PM PDT reply actions

I concur

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 17, 2007 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Crap

The Phillies also win the head-to-head.

"Wow, thank you for finding the missing piece to the puzzle that is Wiggins." - wiggins4ever

by TheGrandHatching on Sep 17, 2007 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions

we dont't need....

....no stinkin' tiebreakers. We win straight up bitches!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 17, 2007 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions

wouldn't there be a one game playoff

for any wild card tie?

by Billy Almon on Sep 17, 2007 3:15 PM PDT reply actions

yes

a tiebreaker is only used if both teams qualify for the playoffs and the division winner is then decided. A 1 game playoff is used for entry into the post season.

So we would not have a tiebreaker with the Phillies.

"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Sep 17, 2007 3:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Sammy!

Hey Sammy, you may not know this but Wife of Sammy G hooked up fairweather with your season tickets on friday noght... Super thanks! I've been dying to sit down there and a bottom of the 10th jack made the night!

by fairweather on Sep 17, 2007 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Magic Numbers

I actually make a sheet that I carry around for the last month or so of the season with a countdown of magic numbers for the Padres against all the NL teams (even those the Padres are trailing). If a team loses, I cross a number off their list. If the Pads win, I cross a number off every other teams' list. The best days are when you get to cross two numbers off the Dbacks, Dodgers, Phils, etc. In other words, I'm a super-nerd super-fan.

So, the NL West magic number is 16 - I like to tell people the Padres have to win 16 of their last 14 games to take the division and see them scratch their heads.

Magic number for the wild card - 13, as others have said.

So far, Florida, Houston, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Washington have been elminated from my sheet. Cincinnati and St. Louis (thank God) are close.

To make this a ridiculously long first post, here are the magic numbers as against all the remaining competitors:

Mets 17
Dbacks 16
Phillies 13
Dodgers 12
Rockies, Cubs, Brewers 10
Braves 9
Cardinals 4
Reds 1

by Dave @ Gaslamp Ball on Sep 17, 2007 3:39 PM PDT reply actions

Also, tiebreakers...

I'm pretty sure they don't use tiebreakers to eliminate a team from the playoffs, just to determine division champ/wild card (like padres/dodgers last season).

In any other case - i.e. phils/pads, there would be a one-game playoff.

by Dave @ Gaslamp Ball on Sep 17, 2007 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions

You're right

Also, the site of the game has already been determined by a coin flip. One of the outcomes was Phillies @ Padres.

"Wow, thank you for finding the missing piece to the puzzle that is Wiggins." - wiggins4ever

by TheGrandHatching on Sep 17, 2007 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

by Dave @ Gaslamp Ball on Sep 17, 2007 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions

you coming over to the gameday thread?

by Demoira on Sep 17, 2007 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions

These Percentages mean nothing

They have the Yankees winning the East at 2.6% and the Phllies winning their east at 5.3%. Yet, the Yankees are only 3.5 GB after today and the Phillies are only 2.5 GB after tonight.

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Sep 17, 2007 6:24 PM PDT reply actions