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And just like that... We're over it... Kinda...

You know what a great time of year is? The offseason. You know why? Cause there's no games to get in the way of actually enjoying ourselves.

"So Dex, you and jbox write a baseball blog. Some would say it's one of the best baseball blogs out there. Who do you guys think will win the World Series?"

"F__k em. Who cares? Not us! It's the offseason, bitches!"

Oh and it allows us to go back over our predictions, see who was right and wrong. Keep an eye out for new Padres and Padres who will vaya con Dios. It also gives me a chance to say that Nick Canepa has the nuttiest analysis I've seen with his conclusion that the team overachieved.

What?

For one thing, I hate when somebody's labeled as an "overachiever". That means that the team performed better than expected. But the trouble with that is an overachiever never "expects" to do less than they actually do. They just find a way to do it. Before we get into it, let's just agree that Nick Canepa certifiably hates San Diego sports teams even though he's covered them for years and, along with Ted Leitner, is directly responsible for the fairweather fan mentality among San Diego sports "fans".
OK. Maybe I'm being harsh. Maybe Canepa sees overachieving as a compliment. To me, the Padres missed the playoffs. They stayed in it till the end. But the goal was the postseason. The expectation was the postseason. I take nothing away from the Padres. They had to fight through a lot, but they missed expectations and almost by definition, they did not overachieve.

Canepa points to all of the things the Padres had to "overcome". Point by point:

  • Geoff Blum taking over for Marcus Giles when Marcus started to suck. Marcus Giles has been on steady decline since 2003. Geoff Blum has been steadily adequate since the 90s. You could look at their numbers from the last 5 years and easily predict what they would do this year. Overachieved? NO.

  • High strikeouts being un-Moneyballlike. The point of Moneyball is to take the data that is available to you and, before making decisions, decide on what data is relevant and what data is irrelevant. The decisions are only as good as the data that you use. Within the book, in that particular point in time, On-Base Percentage was found to be very relevant and strikeouts were found to be very irrelevant. Read the book, dude. Overachieving? No

  • Brian Giles isn't a typical leadoff man and did a good job. OK. That might be true. Overachieving? Maybe Yes.

  • Kouz sucked at first and then got good. I would distinctly say that Kouzmanoff underachieved in April, which is the opposite of course of overachieved. Overachieving? NO!

  • Pitchers couldn't hold runners. This was discussed over and over. "Somehow", the Padres managed to not allow a lot of runs despite people stealing bases over and over. It was suggested by some Padres that this was even a conscious decision. Overachieving? No.
I don't want to do the rest of them. I'm kinda sick of it. In any case, my point is this. The Padres played as best as they could, but unfortunately, bad luck and injuries was too much and they missed the playoffs. To overachieve would mean that we expected them to somehow come in lower than 3rd place, which is a hell of a thing to think about this year's Padres.

0 recs | Comment 17 comments

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pad squad andre?
"i kinda feel like nevin and klesko were some fling we (the padres) had in the past and now realize were a bad idea and are embarrassed about."

by freelunch on Oct 3, 2007 9:54 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

you've got it all wrong
Moneyball, the famous book written by Billy Beane, is about drawing walks and drafting college players. How many "experts" need to tell you that before you understand?

Sheesh...

by Geoff on Oct 3, 2007 9:56 AM PDT   0 recs

you're right...
I was thinking about it more, and I think the other point was that GMs should draft players with man breasts.

by Dex on Oct 3, 2007 10:33 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

also Scott Hatteberg
every team should draft him. I think that was the subtitle of the book.

"Moneyball: The Scott Hatteberg Story (will walk 4 food)"

by goose1 on Oct 3, 2007 11:23 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

fuck the heck
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Oct 3, 2007 12:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

on a more serious note...
...nice post, and it's a lot more accurate to say that the entire NL West overachieved. I'd like to know if Canepa thought that 89 wins would only be good enough for third place in the division.

by Geoff on Oct 3, 2007 9:59 AM PDT   0 recs

Nice theory,
but, unfortunately, it has to be false, because Canepa is not capable of intelligent thought.

I agree that the DBacks and Rockies could both qualify as overachievers- not many people gave either of them a chance to make the postseason, yet here we are.

It's time to crane kick someone in the f*cking face. -goose

by JBro12 on Oct 3, 2007 10:10 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually, Canepa did think that
but it was while he was trying to decide what to order at the Original Pancake House.  It came between considering the apple pancake and wondering what would happen if you hooked jumper cables up to an onion.

by Boy Howdy on Oct 3, 2007 5:45 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Canepa
He is such a fossil - a shining example of the reason that people have started bailing on print newspapers and turning to the Internet for commentary.  His columns always strike me as written by a guy who watches about ten games a season and then makes blanket assertions about the season as a whole.

Go back to covering your beloved Chargers, Nick.

 

by Winfield's Ghost on Oct 3, 2007 10:09 AM PDT   0 recs

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Now Padres fans who have mySI,Sports Illustrated's site where you can get the latest news from your favorite team,can find a link to Gaslamp Ball from mySI! Go to http://www.si.com/padres,go to mySI,click on Gaslamp Ball and join us for great Padres talk!

Gaslamp Ball on mySI at http://www.si.com/padres :Experience It!

Philip Fitzsimmons says Padres rule,Dodgers suck!

by Philip Fitzsimmons on Oct 3, 2007 10:46 AM PDT   0 recs

Overachieve....my ass
Pads won the West previous two years.  They had better starting and relief pitching.  A Better hitting outfield, especially with Bradley and Hairston.  Better infield once Kouz got up to snuff.  

Underachieved is more like it...or just a lucky / unlucky bounce here and there.  One or two pitches from Trevor, a stupid argument at first, getting swept by the Rocks at home, blah blah blah - and the outcome would be different.

Monday's game was one of the most exciting I've ever seen, regardless of outcome.  Just seeing two overachievers go at for 13 innings or just seeing two underachievers go at it for 13 innings...

BTW, isn't getting 15th best Blog is overachieving for such a small market...or is it underachieving.  With all this talent (yours included), we should have won it all.  Who can get in a trade for Third Giles and Planetjeffy?

by planetjeffy on Oct 3, 2007 12:04 PM PDT   0 recs

Well..
We already traded TTG for an up-and-coming player by the name of The Fourth Gwynn.
It's time to crane kick someone in the f*cking face. -goose

by JBro12 on Oct 3, 2007 2:18 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I know you can't get anything for me...
my wit numbers are down, my humor is below the mendoza line and sarcasm leads the league.  Don't worry, we'll find some diamonds in the blog mine.  Just enough so we are in the hunt.

by planetjeffy on Oct 3, 2007 3:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Not bad fellas, not bad.
15 out of 101 OVERACHIEVING? MAYBE
Matt Holliday never touched the plate and Tim McClellan knows it.

by sqrunt on Oct 3, 2007 12:32 PM PDT   0 recs

15th??
We should be way higher. If we get screwed out of a BCS game because of our small market, I don't know what I am gonna do.
It's time to crane kick someone in the f*cking face. -goose

by JBro12 on Oct 3, 2007 2:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

how the hell
did truebluela beat us? they may have good writing, but their total page views for the season came to a robust 8.
Let's go drink some beer.

by sdsuaztec4 on Oct 3, 2007 4:48 PM PDT   0 recs

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