And just like that... We're over it... Kinda...
You know what a great time of year is? The offseason. You know why? Cause there's no games to get in the way of actually enjoying ourselves.
"So Dex, you and jbox write a baseball blog. Some would say it's one of the best baseball blogs out there. Who do you guys think will win the World Series?"
"F__k em. Who cares? Not us! It's the offseason, bitches!"
Oh and it allows us to go back over our predictions, see who was right and wrong. Keep an eye out for new Padres and Padres who will vaya con Dios. It also gives me a chance to say that Nick Canepa has the nuttiest analysis I've seen with his conclusion that the team overachieved.
What?
For one thing, I hate when somebody's labeled as an "overachiever". That means that the team performed better than expected. But the trouble with that is an overachiever never "expects" to do less than they actually do. They just find a way to do it. Before we get into it, let's just agree that Nick Canepa certifiably hates San Diego sports teams even though he's covered them for years and, along with Ted Leitner, is directly responsible for the fairweather fan mentality among San Diego sports "fans".
OK. Maybe I'm being harsh. Maybe Canepa sees overachieving as a compliment. To me, the Padres missed the playoffs. They stayed in it till the end. But the goal was the postseason. The expectation was the postseason. I take nothing away from the Padres. They had to fight through a lot, but they missed expectations and almost by definition, they did not overachieve.
Canepa points to all of the things the Padres had to "overcome". Point by point:
- Geoff Blum taking over for Marcus Giles when Marcus started to suck. Marcus Giles has been on steady decline since 2003. Geoff Blum has been steadily adequate since the 90s. You could look at their numbers from the last 5 years and easily predict what they would do this year. Overachieved? NO.
- High strikeouts being un-Moneyballlike. The point of Moneyball is to take the data that is available to you and, before making decisions, decide on what data is relevant and what data is irrelevant. The decisions are only as good as the data that you use. Within the book, in that particular point in time, On-Base Percentage was found to be very relevant and strikeouts were found to be very irrelevant. Read the book, dude. Overachieving? No
- Brian Giles isn't a typical leadoff man and did a good job. OK. That might be true. Overachieving? Maybe Yes.
- Kouz sucked at first and then got good. I would distinctly say that Kouzmanoff underachieved in April, which is the opposite of course of overachieved. Overachieving? NO!
- Pitchers couldn't hold runners. This was discussed over and over. "Somehow", the Padres managed to not allow a lot of runs despite people stealing bases over and over. It was suggested by some Padres that this was even a conscious decision. Overachieving? No.
0 recs |
17
comments
Comments
pad squad andre?
by freelunch on
Oct 3, 2007 9:54 AM PDT
up
0 recs
you've got it all wrong
Sheesh...
by Geoff on Oct 3, 2007 9:56 AM PDT 0 recs
you're right...
by Dex on
Oct 3, 2007 10:33 AM PDT
up
0 recs
also Scott Hatteberg
"Moneyball: The Scott Hatteberg Story (will walk 4 food)"
by goose1 on
Oct 3, 2007 11:23 AM PDT
up
0 recs
fuck the heck
by Sammy G on
Oct 3, 2007 12:26 PM PDT
up
0 recs
on a more serious note...
by Geoff on Oct 3, 2007 9:59 AM PDT 0 recs
Nice theory,
I agree that the DBacks and Rockies could both qualify as overachievers- not many people gave either of them a chance to make the postseason, yet here we are.
by JBro12 on
Oct 3, 2007 10:10 AM PDT
up
0 recs
Actually, Canepa did think that
by Boy Howdy on
Oct 3, 2007 5:45 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Canepa
Go back to covering your beloved Chargers, Nick.
by Winfield's Ghost on Oct 3, 2007 10:09 AM PDT 0 recs
GLB:best baseball blog!
Gaslamp Ball on mySI at http://www.si.com/padres :Experience It!
by Philip Fitzsimmons on Oct 3, 2007 10:46 AM PDT 0 recs
Overachieve....my ass
Underachieved is more like it...or just a lucky / unlucky bounce here and there. One or two pitches from Trevor, a stupid argument at first, getting swept by the Rocks at home, blah blah blah - and the outcome would be different.
Monday's game was one of the most exciting I've ever seen, regardless of outcome. Just seeing two overachievers go at for 13 innings or just seeing two underachievers go at it for 13 innings...
BTW, isn't getting 15th best Blog is overachieving for such a small market...or is it underachieving. With all this talent (yours included), we should have won it all. Who can get in a trade for Third Giles and Planetjeffy?
by planetjeffy on Oct 3, 2007 12:04 PM PDT 0 recs
Well..
by JBro12 on
Oct 3, 2007 2:18 PM PDT
up
0 recs
I know you can't get anything for me...
by planetjeffy on
Oct 3, 2007 3:02 PM PDT
up
0 recs
Not bad fellas, not bad.
by sqrunt on Oct 3, 2007 12:32 PM PDT 0 recs
15th??
by JBro12 on
Oct 3, 2007 2:19 PM PDT
up
0 recs
how the hell
by sdsuaztec4 on Oct 3, 2007 4:48 PM PDT 0 recs












