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Second Guess

What I think is really evident now is that the debate never should have been "Peavy or Tomko". Realistically, the debate should have been whether we were giving ourselves one game to win one game or if we were giving ourselves two games to win one game. The strategy is definitely different from one to the other.

If you play like Sunday's the must win game, then you send out your best pitcher and you must be prepared to empty the bullpen and the dugout. With my 20/20 hindsight, I think the correct move would've been to go with Peavy and have Tomko ready to take over as the first reliever. If any pitcher were to walk a batter, or allow a runner into scoring position, get two relievers warming up. There no longer is any concept of who earned a run. If Cla's going to allow an inherited runner, then pull him out. Once you've gone to the bullpen, pinch hit and run whenever there's an advantage.

On the other hand, if you're going to play like you have to win one of two games, then go ahead and start Tomko, but if he gets into trouble be prepared to not be so liberal with the bullpen. After all, the very next game becomes a must win game and if you're losing, then you need to make sure that your guys are going to be at their best the next day. But how do you know when to ease up and get prepped for the next game? If you fall behind by 1? By 2? At some point, if you're going to play like you have to win one out of two, you have to decide when to give up in that first game.

That's where the problem comes in. That second game isn't like the second serve in tennis after you've faulted. There's no easing up to make sure that you're in. If anything, you have to hit that second game even harder. And it's not like the Rockies are going to make it any easier. They're in the exact same position the Padres are now. What's worse, the tone is very different in the two clubhouses. This isn't the second chance for the Padres. It's actually the third chance. The first chance was a heartbreaker. The second chance was a blowout. The third chance is against a team that refuses to lose and the last time the Padres have seen the Rockies, it was easily the worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Rockies are in a position where they feel like nothing is stopping them from getting into the postseason.

There's no preparing for the next series when it isn't on your schedule yet. No saving anything tonight. Cassel and Maddux are available even if they are on ridiculously short rest. I don't want to see anything less than our best option coming off of the bench. We're Brewster's Millions tonight, boys. It all gets spent. We finish the evening with nothing left in the tank if we want to see the big prize.

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i think
they just didn't want to have to use Peavy if they didn't have to.  Anyways, two quick questions:

-if Peavy wins tonight, does that make him a 20 game winner?  does this game count towards regular season records?  i'm almost positive Peavy, along with most starting pitchers, has a clause in his contract that kicks in if he wins 20 games, so i'd be interested to find out.

-is the game going to be televised nationally?  i can't seem to find anywhere that says that it will be, but i can't imagine ESPN missing an opportunity to put this on.  anybody know?

by obviousman on Oct 1, 2007 7:44 AM PDT   0 recs

Regular Season
I believe this actually counts towards regular season stats. I'm pretty sure there was some talk about all the players who could benefit in their personal stats from an extra day.

by Dex on Oct 1, 2007 8:05 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, regular season
Adrian has a chance at joining the 30-0 club.  

by Dalton on Oct 1, 2007 8:10 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

According to the NC Times
Jake could become a 20 game winner, which I think means this game counts toward the regular season.  I was wondering that myself.

by Demoira on Oct 1, 2007 8:09 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

And join my
"Heath Bell for 2 innings" campaign.  Sign up for our newsletter.  

by Dalton on Oct 1, 2007 7:58 AM PDT   0 recs

exactly
Jake for 6-7 (depending on lead... even less if we are killing them)
Bell for 2 innings
Hell's Bells for an inning if we need him.

The problem on Sunday wasn't the starting pitching.  The problem was the relief pitching.  Cameron walked 3 batters?  He should have been pulled after 1.
Brocail gave up a triple...

-dennis

by Zen Blade on Oct 1, 2007 9:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Black made the right move
Peavy on short rest was not good. The Dbacks punched him in the mouth and sent him packing.

Peavy on normal rest will still be able to hold back the Rox murderers row

by pointlomarep on Oct 1, 2007 8:12 AM PDT   0 recs

Match-ups....
There are a couple of tough calls for Buddy today when he fills out his line-up card.

Surprisingly, the toughest decision is at catcher. The thought of benching Bard for a game of this magnitude would seem crazy...BUT the numbers are hard to ignore.

Against Josh Fogg, Michael Barrett is 11-25, with doubles, 3 HR's and five RBI.

Bard has a much smaller sample size, he's 1-5 against him with 2 K's.

Maybe this is why Buddy pulled Bard yesterday? To get Barrett some at-bats in preparation for facing Fogg tonight? Or maybe he just wanted to give Josh a rest so he's ready to go tonight? Josh is the easy choice today...but it's hard to ignore a guy hitting .440 off of a guy.

The other one is at second base. Blummer is 4-17 with a couple of RBI against Fogg....good numbers, nothing spectacular. But Marcus is 9-17, with a double, an RBI and a couple of walks against Fogg. And his glove is so much better.

Tough decisions.

by Drama on Oct 1, 2007 8:35 AM PDT   0 recs

Nice work, Drama
Personally, I would start the guys who have better numbers against Fogg.
This is just the tip of the suck iceberg.

by TheGrandHatching on Oct 1, 2007 8:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

barrett and giles
Nice statwork.  Barrett also gives us a better whisper of a chance to throw out baserunners.  I think you're right and Buddy can't ignore these numbers.  Surprising that we didn't see Marcus then.  I  bet he sticks with Blummer.  

by Billy Almon on Oct 1, 2007 8:51 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I think you start Barrett....
...and the second they pull Fogg and go to their bullpen, put Bard in there.

I would definitely start Marcus. Jake deserves out best double play combo out there.

by Drama on Oct 1, 2007 9:41 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I also didn't get why Marcus
wasn't in the game yesterday when they wanted the ground ball and the game was still close.

Of course he's been dreadful swinging the bat--but even there he's been less dreadful lately.  Yes, i'm counting 'less dreadful' as a positive at the plate.

Anyone else catch that on Baseball Tonight last night the top web gem of the Padres year was, um, a catch by Terrmel Sledge in LF? I thought for sure it would be that Khalil move where he was about three hundred feet into center field and made a 360 degree spin throw and got the out...

by goose1 on Oct 1, 2007 9:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

starting Marcus
I agree, but bless Blum's heart.  I'd be happy to have Blummer for a left handed pinch hitter later too.

by Billy Almon on Oct 1, 2007 1:26 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I still hate Tony Gwynn Jr.
This is all his fault. When he came to the plate Saturday I had this sick feeling in my stomach, like, it's not going to end here.

Why couldn't Trevor get it done Saturday?
Why does Tomko suck so much?
Why couldn't we have won 1 game against COL last weekend?
Why does Tony Gwynn hate us?

I don't know, I'm so scared.

by RBS on Oct 1, 2007 8:38 AM PDT   0 recs

I don't blame Tony Gwynn Jr.
at all.  He sprung from the loins of Tony the Gwynn.  It's what he was born to do, it is his destiny.  The Pads should have realized that.

by jbox on Oct 1, 2007 8:42 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I blame Tony
He should have placed the greater good above his love of his son and pulled for the Padres 110% during that AB.  He should have been with us, not against us.

LOL.

by Demoira on Oct 1, 2007 8:44 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

We should sign him
We need outfielders...

Let's just go get T Gwynn, Jr.  That will make all of our lives easier.
-Zen Blade

by Zen Blade on Oct 1, 2007 9:43 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

TG Jr: Dark Side of the Force
He used his powers for evil, instead of good.  

by goose1 on Oct 1, 2007 9:56 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Like I said
..kicked out of the 'family'. For sure. Yeah, I know he did what he was supposed to do, but who said ANY of this was logical or rational???
Christina

by Christina on Oct 1, 2007 9:47 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree Dex
There is no tomorrow and no series without a victory today - so its balls to the wall. Everyone pitches!
Christina

by Christina on Oct 1, 2007 8:40 AM PDT   0 recs

GO ALL IN
Pull out all the stops, cash in those chips. This is the BIG one boys. No saving the bully or the bench. Everyone'll get a chance to play so step up and take your swings ...except for you Sledge, you suck and you certainly aren't clutch.

GO ALL IN!! EXPERIENCE OCTOBER!!

"Don't taze me bro!" ~~jbox

by sqrunt on Oct 1, 2007 8:49 AM PDT   0 recs

baseball tonight, last night
The "analysts" went around the horn last night predicting who would win this 1-game play-off.

Every one of them picked Colorado to win, with me sitting there screaming (loudly, in my mind), "Hello? It's still Jake Freaking Peavy aginst Josh Freaking Fogg! Come on!"

No I don't yell at the television. That would make me crazy.

"Yeah, like the guy in the $3600 suit is going to hold the elevator for the guy who doesn't make that in a month. Come on!"

by pjbno4 on Oct 1, 2007 9:28 AM PDT   0 recs

If I remember correctly....
last year those same Baseball Tonight blowhards all predicted that the Padres would win the NLDS against the Cards.  So maybe it's a good thing they think we'll lose tonight.

by Mr Meadows on Oct 1, 2007 9:35 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I was happy they picked Colorado
Honestly, every single time the Baseball Tonight guys pick the Padres for anything we turn on the suck.

Plus, I have respect for exactly no one on that show in terms of baseball analysis and prediction.  Of course they're going to pick Colorado--the 'analysis' was that Colorado is 'hot right now.'  Remember, just like the Cardinals were "cold" and the Padres were "hot" going into last years playoffs....Yep. The hot team ALWAYS WINS in baseball never-never land. So why look at pitching match-ups, statistics, season series, line-ups etc? Just go with your 'gut.'

by goose1 on Oct 1, 2007 10:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I am strangely comfortable
picking against the collective expertise of Steve Phillips and John Kruk.
It's time to crane kick someone in the f*cking face. -goose

by JBro12 on Oct 1, 2007 10:15 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

jbox is right
Trevor should have seen that one coming and just walked Junior.  The next guy up would have struck out.  

by Mr Meadows on Oct 1, 2007 9:33 AM PDT   0 recs

what if
Tony Gwynn Jr. started doing the Chris Gwynn 1996 clap at third base after his triple?  That would have been awesome.

by jbox on Oct 1, 2007 9:35 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, man.
I thought that when it happened. I'm pretty sure I would hate him if he'd done that.
"You get nervous when you see those guys come into the shower... you definitely don't close your eyes in there, even when you're shampooing." ~CY

by TheThirdGonzalez on Oct 1, 2007 11:43 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Tony Gwynn, Jr.
There's been a lot of talk here recently about the possibility of the Padres acquiring Tony Gwynn, Jr. According to the U-T, Towers tried during the talks for Linebrink.
The Padres asked for Brewers reserve center fielder Tony Gwynn Jr. in talks that resulted in the trade of Scott Linebrink for three pitching prospects.

I'm pretty sure that the Brewers had some injury problems in the outfield around the time of the Linebrink talks...I'm not sure if that was the reason he wasn't included....or if they just have no desire to trade him.

by Drama on Oct 1, 2007 10:01 AM PDT   0 recs

How cool would that have been??
I still remember being in attendance at Tony's last game as a Padre, when Tony Jr. (I think he was still in high school) was in full uniform and ran out to right field with his dad.
It's time to crane kick someone in the f*cking face. -goose

by JBro12 on Oct 1, 2007 10:11 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Tony Gwynn Jr? Who's that?
I didn't even realize he had a son.

by goose1 on Oct 1, 2007 10:17 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

There is no TG jr.
He is dead to me.  BTW, you have to start the guys who got you here - Bard and Blum (clutch and clutcher).

by planetjeffy on Oct 1, 2007 11:16 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

probably a bad idea
he'd always be held up next to his father's legacy, and would most likely be unable to ever match it.  then again....Barry Bonds was better than Bobby, and Junior was better than Ken Griffey.  Maybe there's hope for the kid.

by obviousman on Oct 1, 2007 11:50 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Bonds lover
This is just the tip of the suck iceberg.

by TheGrandHatching on Oct 1, 2007 11:54 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Sean was better than his dad
his timing was just poor, he peaked when he was 12 and not 32.
"I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day. " ~Frank Sinatra

by Sammy G on Oct 1, 2007 1:09 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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