FanPost

‘Tis the Season! The most wonderful time of the year?

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Winter Meetings are next week! The hot stove season provided the most exciting few months of the last year in San Diego. Because of the disastrous results that followed, this offseason will have to be nearly as active and equally as creative. So far, it’s tough to tell which of the two routes below the Padres will take the remainder of this offseason. They’ve traded established assets Joaquin Benoit, Craig Kimbrel, Yonder Alonso and Marc Rzepczynski for a lefty swingman and youngsters, some of whom immediately qualify as Padres top prospects; and in the process, lowered the projected player payroll for 2016. This could indicate the latter of the two options below, or could be a precursor to the former.


A. Go for it in ‘16


Ownership and the front office indicate they’re going for it. This seems more likely as San Diego hosts the All Star Game and will want to use that and the prospects of a winning team to continue the momentum of increased ticket sales.


Needs a plenty-


-A shortstop for at least one year, maybe two. This seems to eliminate free agent Ian Desmond, as he’ll likely command a 4-year deal and way too much money. But if the high level SS prospects one or two or three years away from joining the big club are actually trade bait, who knows.

Another free agent is Alexei Ramirez, who is also a less-than ideal fit due to declines in his former strengths-- defense and speed.

Jimmy Rollins, the switch-hitting former MVP and gold glover could be game for a 1-year deal, and could potentially be a tremendous mentor for the star shortstops of the future. But the decline in skills is even more pronounced than that of Ramirez, and all those awards he’s won likely sets his price at irresponsible levels.

Lower tier free agents such as Willie Bloomquist, Joaquin Arias and Mike Aviles are also names to watch as stopgaps, but may belong in the second section of this post.

As far as possible trade targets-- Javier Baez, Starlin Castro, Jean Segura, Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, you name it…


-A left fielder for one year, or first baseman for the longer term. Wil Myers wants to play 1B, where he can keep his head in the game. Keeping all his body parts in the game will be crucial to the Padres’ success going forward, but is far from a sure thing in the near term. Whether the Padres target a LF or 1B definitely depends on market availability at those two positions more than Myers’ preferences, even if that goofy smile can be persuasive.

Dominic Brown and Alejandro De Aza are two of the lower-end (cheaper) free agent left-handed hitting LF available for possible 1-year deals.

And for those big dreamers, Alex Gordon. It’s almost too unrealistic to talk about, but too fun not to think about. Hunter Renfroe would subsequently make for a nice trade piece.

Equally unrealistic is Chris Davis who wants a bazillion dollars more than the Padres currently have available. But things can change.

Justin Morneau is an interesting gamble that might fit nicely, if the price is right.

Trade candidates-- your guess is as good as mine


-A left-handed hitter or two. More likely the new 1B or LF than the SS


-A leadoff hitter. More likely the new LF or SS than the new 1B


-A reliable, left-handed, innings eating starting pitcher. OK, the more reliable, the more expensive-- that’s just reality. The free agent SP’s are getting absurd amounts of money. Two GREAT fits for Petco Park: Wei-Yin Chen, who will want Shields-type money; and Scott Kazmir, just barely cheaper, if at all.

Cliff Lee might sound exciting, but don’t forget our adventures with Josh Johnson and Brendan Morrow so quickly.

Looks like a good spot to fill via trade. Recent reports have Shelby Miller and Carlos Carrasco as two of the more interesting righties available. Lefties are tough to come by.


-An established closer. Playoff teams have them. The Padres aren't even close to having one. Steve Cishek is an interesting name to watch here, though there will be competition for his services.

Trade for a closer? Reply hazy. Try again later.



B. Don't call it a rebuild, but it's a rebuild


This is less likely and much harder to project. But two things to consider about A.J. Preller-- his reputation was built on his eye for talent, drafting and developing; and another aggressive offseason that blows up in his face will put him on a red hot seat. I’m not opposed to this approach, if done right. That "if done right" applies to anything, but the state of the Padres roster/payroll/farm system indicates to this amateur observer that a rebuild wouldn’t have to be super long-term, like that of the Astros and others.


Basic Needs-


-high-level, projectable prospects

-offloading big contracts

-taking advantage of trade value

-anyone who has ever played shortstop, even in Little League


Guys we’d like to trade


Tyson Ross- His trade value may never be higher, and he’s getting expensive for a rebuilding team. The problem is how to fill in the rotation for the near future, as the near-ready SP’s on the farm aren’t great.


James Shields- A very patient approach on this may not be realistic, but would behoove the Padres. Let the market for free agent SP’s get set higher and higher, making Shields’ contract look like less and less of an obstacle. If there’s still too little value in return, hope for a rebound and wait until the trade deadline. That opt-out makes it tricky, but cross that bridge when you come to it.


Yangervis Solarte- Also a "trade value" guy both due to recent performance and the 3B market. CHW, LAA and others look like good trade partners here. Cory Spangenberg earned at least a Spring audition for the starting 3B job on a rebuilding team.


Derek Norris- He’s not at peak trade value in terms of his most recent performance, but the catching market is very thin, with all the available guys getting scooped up very early this offseason. If the return is there, take it. Austin Hedges gets thrown into the deep end, with Josmil Pinto a fringe backup.


Matt Kemp- Unlikely at the moment, but maybe an AL team is looking for a RH OF/DH-type to round out its lineup.


Melvin Upton- So, so unlikely at the moment. It would take a Christmas miracle.

So, what’ll it be, Friar Faithful? Some shiny new names on the backs of those shiny new jerseys under the tree? Or bah humbug and wait ‘til next year?

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball staff or SB Nation.