I saw this interesting tweet from Craig Elsten that reveals another example of the 2014 Padres' offensive futility:
39 times out of 64 games this year (61%) the @Padres have scored 3 runs or fewer. #thatsbaseball
— Craig Elsten (@619sports) June 11, 2014
I thought I'd check the other Padres' seasons to see if they tell us anything more.
First off you'll notice that the team that played the most games while scoring 3 runs or less was the worst team in Padres history. In 1969 they did it 69% of the time, which initially made me think there was a correlation and the 2014 season which is on pace to have the third worst rate is most certainly doomed.
However, you'll notice the team with the least number of these games in the 1997 team, which is rather surprising since they were a last place, 76 win team. The best team in Padres history in 1998 had three or fewer runs in 46% of their games, which is a middle of the pack number.
Number of games where the Padres have scored 3 or fewer runs
Year |
Padres scored <= 3 |
Average |
Season Games |
Season Wins |
Win % |
1969 |
112 |
0.69 |
162 |
52 |
0.321 |
1971 |
108 |
0.67 |
161 |
61 |
0.379 |
2014 |
39 |
0.61 |
64 |
28 |
0.438 |
1974 |
97 |
0.6 |
162 |
60 |
0.37 |
1972 |
91 |
0.59 |
153 |
58 |
0.379 |
1975 |
94 |
0.58 |
162 |
71 |
0.438 |
1981 |
63 |
0.57 |
110 |
41 |
0.373 |
1979 |
92 |
0.57 |
161 |
68 |
0.422 |
2011 |
92 |
0.57 |
162 |
71 |
0.438 |
1980 |
92 |
0.56 |
163 |
73 |
0.448 |
1978 |
91 |
0.56 |
162 |
84 |
0.519 |
1989 |
88 |
0.54 |
162 |
89 |
0.549 |
1973 |
88 |
0.54 |
162 |
60 |
0.37 |
2008 |
87 |
0.54 |
162 |
63 |
0.389 |
1990 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
75 |
0.463 |
1992 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
82 |
0.506 |
2013 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
1985 |
85 |
0.52 |
162 |
83 |
0.512 |
1991 |
84 |
0.52 |
162 |
84 |
0.519 |
2010 |
84 |
0.52 |
162 |
90 |
0.556 |
2005 |
84 |
0.52 |
162 |
82 |
0.506 |
1976 |
83 |
0.51 |
162 |
73 |
0.451 |
1988 |
82 |
0.51 |
161 |
83 |
0.516 |
2002 |
82 |
0.51 |
162 |
66 |
0.407 |
2012 |
82 |
0.51 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
1987 |
82 |
0.51 |
162 |
65 |
0.401 |
2003 |
79 |
0.49 |
162 |
64 |
0.395 |
1986 |
78 |
0.48 |
162 |
74 |
0.457 |
2009 |
77 |
0.48 |
162 |
75 |
0.463 |
1994 |
55 |
0.47 |
117 |
47 |
0.402 |
1993 |
76 |
0.47 |
162 |
61 |
0.377 |
1970 |
76 |
0.47 |
162 |
63 |
0.389 |
1983 |
75 |
0.46 |
163 |
81 |
0.497 |
1999 |
74 |
0.46 |
162 |
74 |
0.457 |
1998 |
74 |
0.46 |
162 |
98 |
0.605 |
1982 |
74 |
0.46 |
162 |
81 |
0.5 |
1995 |
65 |
0.45 |
144 |
70 |
0.486 |
1984 |
73 |
0.45 |
162 |
92 |
0.568 |
2006 |
73 |
0.45 |
162 |
88 |
0.543 |
2007 |
72 |
0.44 |
163 |
89 |
0.546 |
2004 |
71 |
0.44 |
162 |
87 |
0.537 |
1996 |
68 |
0.42 |
162 |
91 |
0.562 |
2000 |
65 |
0.4 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
1977 |
65 |
0.4 |
162 |
69 |
0.426 |
2001 |
62 |
0.38 |
162 |
79 |
0.488 |
1997 |
57 |
0.35 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
I decided to check to see how many games the Padres held their opponent to three runs or less. The 2014 Padres have done this 34 times, a 53% average. That 53% puts them in a 5-way tie for the 5th best percentage in Padres history. The 1978 Padres own the record by limiting their opponent's runs 94 times but they only won 84 games.
Number of games the Padres have allowed their opponent to score 3 or fewer runs
Year |
Padres allowed <=3 |
Average |
Season Games |
Season Wins |
Win % |
1974 |
54 |
0.33 |
162 |
60 |
0.37 |
2003 |
55 |
0.34 |
162 |
64 |
0.395 |
1977 |
56 |
0.35 |
162 |
69 |
0.426 |
1997 |
57 |
0.35 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
1993 |
60 |
0.37 |
162 |
61 |
0.377 |
2002 |
62 |
0.38 |
162 |
66 |
0.407 |
1970 |
62 |
0.38 |
162 |
63 |
0.389 |
1986 |
63 |
0.39 |
162 |
74 |
0.457 |
1995 |
56 |
0.39 |
144 |
70 |
0.486 |
1969 |
65 |
0.4 |
162 |
52 |
0.321 |
2009 |
65 |
0.4 |
162 |
75 |
0.463 |
2000 |
65 |
0.4 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
2008 |
67 |
0.41 |
162 |
63 |
0.389 |
2012 |
66 |
0.41 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
1987 |
67 |
0.41 |
162 |
65 |
0.401 |
2001 |
67 |
0.41 |
162 |
79 |
0.488 |
2004 |
68 |
0.42 |
162 |
87 |
0.537 |
1973 |
70 |
0.43 |
162 |
60 |
0.37 |
2005 |
69 |
0.43 |
162 |
82 |
0.506 |
1994 |
50 |
0.43 |
117 |
47 |
0.402 |
1999 |
69 |
0.43 |
162 |
74 |
0.457 |
1982 |
69 |
0.43 |
162 |
81 |
0.5 |
1983 |
72 |
0.44 |
163 |
81 |
0.497 |
1979 |
73 |
0.45 |
161 |
68 |
0.422 |
1975 |
75 |
0.46 |
162 |
71 |
0.438 |
1981 |
52 |
0.47 |
110 |
41 |
0.373 |
1992 |
76 |
0.47 |
162 |
82 |
0.506 |
1972 |
74 |
0.48 |
153 |
58 |
0.379 |
1990 |
78 |
0.48 |
162 |
75 |
0.463 |
1996 |
77 |
0.48 |
162 |
91 |
0.562 |
1976 |
80 |
0.49 |
162 |
73 |
0.451 |
1984 |
79 |
0.49 |
162 |
92 |
0.568 |
2006 |
79 |
0.49 |
162 |
88 |
0.543 |
2007 |
80 |
0.49 |
163 |
89 |
0.546 |
2013 |
81 |
0.5 |
162 |
76 |
0.469 |
1991 |
82 |
0.51 |
162 |
84 |
0.519 |
1980 |
84 |
0.52 |
163 |
73 |
0.448 |
2014 |
34 |
0.53 |
64 |
28 |
0.438 |
1989 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
89 |
0.549 |
1985 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
83 |
0.512 |
2010 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
90 |
0.556 |
1998 |
86 |
0.53 |
162 |
98 |
0.605 |
2011 |
88 |
0.54 |
162 |
71 |
0.438 |
1971 |
89 |
0.55 |
161 |
61 |
0.379 |
1988 |
88 |
0.55 |
161 |
83 |
0.516 |
1978 |
94 |
0.58 |
162 |
84 |
0.519 |
Just eyeballing the data, I don't see much of a correlation between winning percentage and the number of games the Padres play with 3 runs or fewer. The results look to be all over the place. Let me know if you see something I didn't.