2014 Padres having trouble scoring more than three runs in a game, but will that keep them from winning?

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

I saw this interesting tweet from Craig Elsten that reveals another example of the 2014 Padres' offensive futility:

I thought I'd check the other Padres' seasons to see if they tell us anything more.

First off you'll notice that the team that played the most games while scoring 3 runs or less was the worst team in Padres history.  In 1969 they did it 69% of the time, which initially made me think there was a correlation and the 2014 season which is on pace to have the third worst rate is most certainly doomed.

However, you'll notice the team with the least number of these games in the 1997 team, which is rather surprising since they were a last place, 76 win team.  The best team in Padres history in 1998 had three or fewer runs in 46% of their games, which is a middle of the pack number.

Number of games where the Padres have scored 3 or fewer runs

Year

Padres scored <= 3

Average

Season Games

Season Wins

Win %

1969

112

0.69

162

52

0.321

1971

108

0.67

161

61

0.379

2014

39

0.61

64

28

0.438

1974

97

0.6

162

60

0.37

1972

91

0.59

153

58

0.379

1975

94

0.58

162

71

0.438

1981

63

0.57

110

41

0.373

1979

92

0.57

161

68

0.422

2011

92

0.57

162

71

0.438

1980

92

0.56

163

73

0.448

1978

91

0.56

162

84

0.519

1989

88

0.54

162

89

0.549

1973

88

0.54

162

60

0.37

2008

87

0.54

162

63

0.389

1990

86

0.53

162

75

0.463

1992

86

0.53

162

82

0.506

2013

86

0.53

162

76

0.469

1985

85

0.52

162

83

0.512

1991

84

0.52

162

84

0.519

2010

84

0.52

162

90

0.556

2005

84

0.52

162

82

0.506

1976

83

0.51

162

73

0.451

1988

82

0.51

161

83

0.516

2002

82

0.51

162

66

0.407

2012

82

0.51

162

76

0.469

1987

82

0.51

162

65

0.401

2003

79

0.49

162

64

0.395

1986

78

0.48

162

74

0.457

2009

77

0.48

162

75

0.463

1994

55

0.47

117

47

0.402

1993

76

0.47

162

61

0.377

1970

76

0.47

162

63

0.389

1983

75

0.46

163

81

0.497

1999

74

0.46

162

74

0.457

1998

74

0.46

162

98

0.605

1982

74

0.46

162

81

0.5

1995

65

0.45

144

70

0.486

1984

73

0.45

162

92

0.568

2006

73

0.45

162

88

0.543

2007

72

0.44

163

89

0.546

2004

71

0.44

162

87

0.537

1996

68

0.42

162

91

0.562

2000

65

0.4

162

76

0.469

1977

65

0.4

162

69

0.426

2001

62

0.38

162

79

0.488

1997

57

0.35

162

76

0.469

I decided to check to see how many games the Padres held their opponent to three runs or less.  The 2014 Padres have done this 34 times, a 53% average.  That 53% puts them in a 5-way tie for the 5th best percentage in Padres history.  The 1978 Padres own the record by limiting their opponent's runs 94 times but they only won 84 games.

Number of games the Padres have allowed their opponent to score 3 or fewer runs

Year

Padres allowed <=3

Average

Season Games

Season Wins

Win %

1974

54

0.33

162

60

0.37

2003

55

0.34

162

64

0.395

1977

56

0.35

162

69

0.426

1997

57

0.35

162

76

0.469

1993

60

0.37

162

61

0.377

2002

62

0.38

162

66

0.407

1970

62

0.38

162

63

0.389

1986

63

0.39

162

74

0.457

1995

56

0.39

144

70

0.486

1969

65

0.4

162

52

0.321

2009

65

0.4

162

75

0.463

2000

65

0.4

162

76

0.469

2008

67

0.41

162

63

0.389

2012

66

0.41

162

76

0.469

1987

67

0.41

162

65

0.401

2001

67

0.41

162

79

0.488

2004

68

0.42

162

87

0.537

1973

70

0.43

162

60

0.37

2005

69

0.43

162

82

0.506

1994

50

0.43

117

47

0.402

1999

69

0.43

162

74

0.457

1982

69

0.43

162

81

0.5

1983

72

0.44

163

81

0.497

1979

73

0.45

161

68

0.422

1975

75

0.46

162

71

0.438

1981

52

0.47

110

41

0.373

1992

76

0.47

162

82

0.506

1972

74

0.48

153

58

0.379

1990

78

0.48

162

75

0.463

1996

77

0.48

162

91

0.562

1976

80

0.49

162

73

0.451

1984

79

0.49

162

92

0.568

2006

79

0.49

162

88

0.543

2007

80

0.49

163

89

0.546

2013

81

0.5

162

76

0.469

1991

82

0.51

162

84

0.519

1980

84

0.52

163

73

0.448

2014

34

0.53

64

28

0.438

1989

86

0.53

162

89

0.549

1985

86

0.53

162

83

0.512

2010

86

0.53

162

90

0.556

1998

86

0.53

162

98

0.605

2011

88

0.54

162

71

0.438

1971

89

0.55

161

61

0.379

1988

88

0.55

161

83

0.516

1978

94

0.58

162

84

0.519

Just eyeballing the data, I don't see much of a correlation between winning percentage and the number of games the Padres play with 3 runs or fewer.  The results look to be all over the place.  Let me know if you see something I didn't.

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