Padres are 9-11 after 20 games

Mike McGinnis

Last year after 20 games the Padres were tied for the worst start in franchise history with a record of 5-15.  This year they have 4 more wins and sit at a 9-11 record.  It's not a great start but only mildly embarrassing, like when the tag is hanging out the back of your t-shirt.  Last night's loss and all those Padres left on base just made it feel worse.

The 1988 Padres were able to turn a 9-11 start into an 83 win season, the 1969 Padres pooped the bed and only managed 52 wins.  Those are the two extremes in Padres history.  If I did my math properly and used the formula supplied by Neil Paine correctly, the Padres are currently on pace for a 78 win season.  You can read more about his procedure by following the link.

How to Predict MLB Records From Early Results | FiveThirtyEight

Another great thing about this procedure is that the "add 67 games of .500 ball" trick works no matter how far into the season a team is. It’s just as valid now as it will be in late July. The difference between now and then will be the amount of weight that a team’s observed results take in the formula.

Here's how all Padres teams have fared after 20 games.

Win % in first 20 Games

Year

Wins in first 20 games

Win % in first 20

Season Wins

Season Games

Season Win %

1971

5

25

61

161

37.89

1987

5

25

65

162

40.12

2013

5

25

76

162

46.91

1974

6

30

60

162

37.04

1981

6

30

41

110

37.27

1970

6

30

63

162

38.89

1994

6

30

47

117

40.17

2012

6

30

76

162

46.91

1973

7

35

60

162

37.04

2003

7

35

64

162

39.51

2001

7

35

79

162

48.77

1978

7

35

84

162

51.85

1979

8

40

68

161

42.24

1977

8

40

69

162

42.59

2011

8

40

71

162

43.83

2006

8

40

88

162

54.32

1969

9

45

52

162

32.1

1993

9

45

61

162

37.65

1972

9

45

58

153

37.91

2008

9

45

63

162

38.89

2002

9

45

66

162

40.74

1980

9

45

73

163

44.79

1976

9

45

73

162

45.06

1999

9

45

74

162

45.68

1990

9

45

75

162

46.3

1997

9

45

76

162

46.91

1995

9

45

70

144

48.61

1983

9

45

81

163

49.69

2005

9

45

82

162

50.62

1988

9

45

83

161

51.55

1975

10

50

71

162

43.83

2000

10

50

76

162

46.91

1992

10

50

82

162

50.62

1989

10

50

89

162

54.94

1986

11

55

74

162

45.68

2009

11

55

75

162

46.3

1985

11

55

83

162

51.23

1991

11

55

84

162

51.85

2004

11

55

87

162

53.7

2007

12

60

89

163

54.6

2010

12

60

90

162

55.56

1996

13

65

91

162

56.17

1982

14

70

81

162

50

1984

14

70

92

162

56.79

1998

16

80

98

162

60.49

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