Runs in April at Petco Park at a shortage for the Padres

Denis Poroy

I saw this tweet from Craig Elsten the other day about the Padres poor run production in April during the Petco Park era.

I wanted to investigate just how bad the run production was so I did some simple math and created some tables.  At first I wasn't quite sure if Elsten meant only at home games at Petco Park or all games in April since 2004, but once I started crunching numbers it was pretty obvious he meant home games at Petco Park.

First let's look at the Padres run total and average runs for all of their games.  They average 4.02 runs per game overall.

Overall Run Production

Games

Padres Runs

Padres Average

Opponent Runs

Opponent Average

7185

28854

4.02

31401

4.37

At home games the Padres average drops to 3.82

All-time Home Totals

Games

Padres Runs

Padres Average

Opponent Runs

Opponent Average

3598

13743

3.82

14522

4.04

Now to look at the monthly totals.  When you toss out March and October for their small sample size, you find April and July are practically tied in terms of average runs per game and not too far off the 3.82 average.

All-time Monthly Totals at Home

Month Games Padres Runs Padres Average Opponent Runs Opponent Average
Mar 3 9 3 6 2
Oct 38 139 3.66 159 4.18
Apr 538 2025 3.76 2178 4.05
Jul 579 2179 3.76 2385 4.12
Sep 594 2251 3.79 2388 4.02
Jun 634 2419 3.82 2618 4.13
May 630 2426 3.85 2565 4.07
Aug 582 2295 3.94 2223 3.82

Prior to Petco Park April wasn't bad at all.  In Mission Valley, April was one of the better months for run production.  They scored 3.9 runs on the road in this period.

Monthly Totals from 1969 to 2003

Month

Games

Padres Runs

Padres Average

Opponent Runs

Opponent Average

Mar

1

2

2

5

5

Jul

461

1735

3.76

1834

3.98

Sep

464

1753

3.78

1936

4.17

Jun

485

1866

3.85

2012

4.15

May

493

1912

3.88

2097

4.25

Apr

398

1545

3.88

1649

4.14

Oct

33

128

3.88

145

4.39

Aug

440

1744

3.96

1708

3.88

In the Petco Park era, April is clearly the worst in terms of run production for the Padres when you toss out October and March for their small sample sizes. April produces .28 less than June.  They scored an average of 4.3 runs on the road since 2004.

Petco Park Monthly Totals

Month

Games

Padres Runs

Padres Average

Opponent Runs

Opponent Average

Oct

5

11

2.2

14

2.8

Apr

140

480

3.43

529

3.78

Mar

2

7

3.5

1

0.5

Jun

149

553

3.71

606

4.07

May

137

514

3.75

468

3.42

Jul

118

444

3.76

551

4.67

Sep

130

498

3.83

452

3.48

Aug

142

551

3.88

515

3.63

So in conclusion, Elsten was right.  The Padres do suck at scoring runs at Petco Park in April.

Petco Park Era April Winning %

Month

Year

Wins

Games

Win %

Apr

2010

9

11

81.82

Apr

2004

10

14

71.43

Apr

2005

7

10

70

Apr

2009

6

10

60

Apr

2007

6

12

50

Apr

2014

6

13

46.15

Apr

2013

5

12

41.67

Apr

2008

5

14

35.71

Apr

2012

5

15

33.33

Apr

2006

4

15

26.67

Apr

2011

4

15

26.67

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