First 6 Padres games may be precursor of things to come

Doug Pensinger

The 2013 Padres are off to a miserable 1-5 start. I wanted to see how past Padres teams performed in their first 6 games and what that means for the rest of the season. It doesn't look good.

I was chatting with Dex about this data and he came to the conclusion, "when we start out sucky, we end sucky". I told him that even times when we started decent in the first 6 it didn't mean it'd end well. He modified his hypothesis, "when we start out good, we end sucky." Well, not necessarily, I showed him some more data points, he replied "haha all you're telling me is that we're gonna suck." Yeah, I guess I am.

The Padres averaged 2.76 wins in their first 6 games, in their 30 sub .500 seasons. They averaged 3.2 wins in their .500 and above seasons. Only in 1988 did they start 1-5 and finish above .500

The one time when the team started with zero wins was in 1974. The team finished with 60 wins, a 37% winning percentage. When the Padres won one game, they managed to win an average of 43% which would make the season win total average around 70. Two wins averaged 46% and 75 wins. Three wins meant an average of 45% and 72 wins. Four wins averaged 49% and 79 wins. The team only started the first 6 games with 5 wins 4 times. They finished with an average 52% and 85 wins.

First 6 games by Winning %

Year

Wins in First 6 games

Winning % in First 6

Season Wins

Season Games

Season Winning %

1974

0

0

60

162

37.04

1987

1

16.67

65

162

40.12

1994

1

16.67

47

117

40.17

2002

1

16.67

66

162

40.74

1988

1

16.67

83

161

51.55

1973

2

33.33

60

162

37.04

1981

2

33.33

41

110

37.27

1993

2

33.33

61

162

37.65

1979

2

33.33

68

161

42.24

2012

2

33.33

76

162

46.91

1983

2

33.33

81

163

49.69

1982

2

33.33

81

162

50

1978

2

33.33

84

162

51.85

2006

2

33.33

88

162

54.32

2010

2

33.33

90

162

55.56

1969

3

50

52

162

32.1

1971

3

50

61

161

37.89

1972

3

50

58

153

37.91

1970

3

50

63

162

38.89

2003

3

50

64

162

39.51

1977

3

50

69

162

42.59

2011

3

50

71

162

43.83

1976

3

50

73

162

45.06

1986

3

50

74

162

45.68

1999

3

50

74

162

45.68

2000

3

50

76

162

46.91

2001

3

50

79

162

48.77

2005

3

50

82

162

50.62

1985

3

50

83

162

51.23

2004

3

50

87

162

53.7

1989

3

50

89

162

54.94

2008

4

66.67

63

162

38.89

1975

4

66.67

71

162

43.83

1990

4

66.67

75

162

46.3

2009

4

66.67

75

162

46.3

1997

4

66.67

76

162

46.91

1995

4

66.67

70

144

48.61

1992

4

66.67

82

162

50.62

2007

4

66.67

89

163

54.6

1998

4

66.67

98

162

60.49

1980

5

83.33

73

163

44.79

1991

5

83.33

84

162

51.85

1996

5

83.33

91

162

56.17

1984

5

83.33

92

162

56.79

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Gaslamp Ball

You must be a member of Gaslamp Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Gaslamp Ball. You should read them.

Join Gaslamp Ball

You must be a member of Gaslamp Ball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Gaslamp Ball. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker