The Padres win percentage as it relates to runs scored and runs allowed

Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

I was thinking about the Padres win percentage last night as it relates to the number of runs the Padres score.  Today I made some data tables.

Winning percentage by Padres' runs scored

Runs Scored

Wins

Games

Win %

0

0

522

0

1

95

882

10.77

2

291

1123

25.91

3

453

1083

41.83

4

491

918

53.49

5

479

762

62.86

6

391

560

69.82

7

354

456

77.63

8

248

289

85.81

9

176

204

86.27

10

115

130

88.46

11

98

102

96.08

12

47

51

92.16

13

37

37

100

14

13

14

92.86

15

17

17

100

16

5

5

100

17

6

6

100

18

3

3

100

20

2

2

100

What do we learn? The Padres cannot win when they score zero runs, they're jinxed.  They've also only lost once when they have scored 13 or more runs.  It happened on August 29th, 2001.  The Cardinals beat the Padres 16-14 at Busch Stadium.  The Padres were down by 5 runs in the 9th but scored 3 in the final frame in a failed comeback attempt.  Also we learn that in order to have at least 50% chance of winning they need to score 4 runs or more.

"That's all interesting" you say, "but what about the Padres winning percentage as it relates to runs allowed?"  I've got you covered there too.

Winning percentage by Padres' runs allowed

Runs Against

Wins

Games

Win %

0

437

437

100

1

684

778

87.92

2

686

944

72.67

3

591

1068

55.34

4

367

945

38.84

5

269

804

33.46

6

136

639

21.28

7

79

483

16.36

8

36

338

10.65

9

20

262

7.63

10

7

178

3.93

11

6

102

5.88

12

1

95

1.05

13

1

31

3.23

14

0

25

0

15

0

19

0

16

1

8

12.5

17

0

3

0

18

0

3

0

19

0

2

0

20

0

1

0

23

0

1

0

Well first off we can see the Padres are undefeated when they've skunked their opposition.  It's unbelievable that they've kept that streak alive for the last 45 seasons.

Second, when they've kept their opponent to under three runs they have a better than 50% chance of winning.  Good to know.

They've also won only three games when they've allowed 12 or more runs.  Once when the Marlins scored 12 runs on July 27, 1996, but the Padres scored 20.  Another win against the Giants on Opening Day in 1983 when they gave up 13 runs but scored 16.  Finally when they allowed 14 runs in a win that came on May 23, 1979 against the San Francisco Giants.  They were tied at 14 after 9 innings.  Both teams scored twice in the 11th and then finally the Padres won on a Nate Colbert home run in the 15th inning by a final score of 17-16.  So twice they gave up 13 or more runs to the Giants and still won. P0wned.

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