According to the current Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds report., the Padres are projected to hit 78 wins and come in 4th place in the NL West! BP is also currently giving them a 13.3% chance at the playoffs.
Interestingly, BP doesn't seem to think the Dodgers are for real.
The current wins projection comes from the total number of wins now and the expected number of wins for the rest of the season, which is pretty impressive considering, just recently, we projected out that getting to 78 or 79 wins would basically mean fielding a different team (i.e. April was really not a representative sample).
I don't know the other details beyond that, but here's hoping that the smart folks at BP really are as smart as they say they are.
Those playoff odds for the Padres put their chances in front of the Rockies, Cubs, Pirates, Astros and the Mets in the National League. Looks like Jed Hoyer left a pain in the ass job for a bigger pain in the ass.
Look lively, Padres Fan! We got some winning to do!