Padres' Garfinkel says USA Today's sources wrong, television deal not worth $75M a year
by jbox on Feb 10, 2012 1:44 PM PST
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Padres President/COO Tom Garfinkel called into XX Sports Radio (MP3) this morning to talk about upcoming promotions. He was just minding his own business when suddenly and without warning he was forced to refute Bob Nightengale's USA Today piece that makes the outrageous claim that the Padres are closing in on a 20 year deal worth $75 million a year.
And even the San Diego Padres— playing in the 26th largest market in baseball — are, pending MLB approval, poised to sign a new deal with Fox Sports that will guarantee them $75 million a year for the next 20 years. The deal was confirmed by two industry executives familiar with the contract but not authorized to speak publicly about its details
Garfinkel responded in his interview with new morning hosts Dave and Jeff.
"Well unfortunately they're [the numbers] not real. I wish they were that high."
He continued by saying that the Padres have the smallest television market in baseball in terms of geography and the number of viewers. The actual contract will come closer to doubling the amount from last year, which by my calculations will put the amount between $20-25 million a year.
The Padres are getting closer to announcing the TV deal, but parts of it are out of their control. The ultimate goal is to give everybody in San Diego to the opportunity to see Padres baseball.
UPDATE: Nightengale stands by his numbers:
@tomkrasovic
Tom Krasovic #Padres prez said USA Today report overstates money on club's pending TV deal; the author, Nightengale, tells me his numbers are accurate.
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not thin air
“sources at Fox”
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
by Hormel on Feb 10, 2012 2:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Not "sources at Fox"
Two “industry executives”.
Why would sources at Fox disclose the amount of a TV deal that they haven’t had finalized yet while they’re in the middle of negotiating larger deals with other teams? Answer: They wouldn’t. This disclosure would have to come from somebody wanting to either brag about how much money the Padres were making, or wanting to pad the numbers for future or current negotiations.
by Dex on Feb 10, 2012 2:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
yes...but is Garfinkle
including the large up front payment in the estimate? I think there is fudging on his end…to lower fan expectations. Also, with the Padres owning part of the channel, it will be difficult to quantify the value of that upfront. I find it hard to imagine the Padres are only getting a marginal increase in TV revenues – compared to the blockbuster deals being announced.
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
I don't know how he's doing the estimate
The idea of a large up front payment is still speculation considering there’s no deal yet.
I still throw it out there that this number couldn’t have come from Fox unless they wanted to eff up their own negotiations. And the Padres, with the ongoing negotiation and with all the player payroll grief they get, wouldn’t be bragging about $70 million a year until it was a done done done deal.
someone is not telling the truth
I want answers dammit
.
.
.
actually, I just like stirring up poop
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
The cox contract was $13m a year
$75m is about what the texas rangers got for their tv deal. consider the disparity in the size of our markets and it seems the deal was too good to be true.
Nightengale said Rangers deal is worth $3 bil
or $150 mil a year
Dodgers…$4 bil – which is why the bidding for the team is going over $2 bil.
These escalating TV contracts are quickly escalating the value of the clubs. Moorad got a great deal on the Padres…if MLB approves his ownership.
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
So if the Cox Deal was $13,
lets just round it to 15, and double that is 30. which seems likely based on consensus— Nightengale said Rangers is 150, while another source says its 75..so Nightengale seems to be doubling the estimates as a habit, The Padres deal is probably between 30-37.5 (all values in $ Millons)
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
I thought
When the Fox Sports numbers were first talked about months ago it was understood that it’d be for $30 million a year. Did I just imagine that?
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Richard Wade - "I feel like me from four years ago would punch present me in the face. I like to think that's because I've grown as a person."
what this number does...
Is it sets a new number to psychologically anchor to. Previously, assuming the Padres negotiations weren’t final yet, the anchor was in the range of $20 million to $30 million. Now, the number to anchor to is $70 million. It’s a powerful negotiation tactic to throw wild ass numbers out there during negotiation to anchor to. The book Thinking, Fast and Slow by Kahneman has a whole section on how even numbers that are obviously made up will be anchored to when shown to somebody being asked to make a quantitative estimate.
I'm keen to read that book
What did you think of it?
queen of the rec fairies
although it broke our hearts it did not break our will the herd
it's really good
He talks through all kinds of different biases that we have when it comes to estimating and predicting and identifies ways to work past the biases. For example, when asked to predict a GPA, you should start with what you think the average GPA is and then estimate how far above or below average you think your prediction will be. And then you should estimate a regression to the mean. You’ll never correctly predict major outliers, but he says too often, people will be biased towards the outliers anyway because of different factors.
It’s really interesting, though I imagine it would be a buzz kill for people who live on making crazy predictions.
So what we're thinking is that these "industry executives"
have a vested interest in another team’s TV deal. So they’re floating a rumour that says “Hey, the lowly San Diego Padres are getting a whopping $70M a year! So we, the Angels/Dodgers/Cardinals/Gotham City Knights should have a deal worth hundreds of millions a year!”
Correct? Ish?
Yakety Sax: Making divisional matchups hilarious since 1963.
Gaslamp Ball: SMELLS LIKE PROSPECTS IN HERE
Please, call me StrangeBro.
I'm sayin'...
I don’t know why Fox would start that rumor considering they’re in the middle of the negotiations and everything is pointing to the Padres actually getting between $20 and $30 million.
Nightengale seems to have been smoking one of these
I’m inclined to believe every other source and the Padres president over one guy with an incredible out of proportion number.
by athletics68 on Feb 10, 2012 3:38 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Nice Suit
Tom’s lookin’ pretty pretty good right there. Of course he says the deal ain’t worth $75M… you know what I’m sayin’?!
"I'M NOT GOING TO ASK HIM FOR F_CKING TICKETS, DEX. I DON'T NEED A DEAL ON A F_CKING LUXURY SUITE." - Mike
I bet it was 75 million...
Over the course of 20 years.
"You're killing independent George!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"
or would pay out, over 20 years,
$75 MM more than the previous deal would
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
And it was 30 million in one lump sum
Padres choice.
by athletics68 on Feb 10, 2012 8:23 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
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