Predicting Carlos Quentin 2012
by Dex on Jan 4, 2012 10:15 AM PST
Email
PrintWho me? I'm looking forward to Carlos Quentin. It's been an amazingly long time since we've acquired somebody under 30 who's had proven success at the big league level. And if you don't think two All-Star game appearances by the time he was 28 demonstrates success, then we'll agree to disagree.
But seriously. Who was the last guy?
Jorge Cantu? I guess Jorge Cantu.
But still there's concern that Carlos Quentin will fail miserably in Petco Park. That he will be Ryan Ludwick or Jim Edmonds as opposed to Mike Cameron/Piazza or Khalil Greene once he tries to hit towering home runs. That he will only manage an 80 game season and 6 home runs before being traded for a pile of bats out of desperation. That his giant buttocks and hands like Christmas hams will prevent him from making any plays in right field left field.
I have high hopes, but I'm an optimist. Plenty of doubters out there, but I'm curious about what Gaslamp Lurker thinks so here's a poll.
Over or Under:
- 119.5 games (he's averaged 102 games per year in 6 years at the big league level, but 119.5 in the last 4 years)
- 19.5 HRs (he's averaged 20.2 HRs per year)
- 3.5 Errors (averaged 3.5 errors per year. I know there are better fielding metrics, but this is good enough)
The following 8 options should cover our bases (I did computer engineering in college so I know binary). Vote early! Vote often! Who me? OVER!!!!
35 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
My take
He’ll play somewhere around 130 games, hit somewhere between 20 and 25 home runs, and commit one or two errors. That, of course, won’t account for horrific range.
A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"
by Zach (maestro876) on Jan 4, 2012 10:22 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Seriously?
Here is the Quentin reality:
18 errors in 4 years in a smaller park while averaging less than 100 games started in the field.
Quentin is the very worst defensive outfielder in baseball. He played in easier park to defend than Petco.
Quentin has averaged 105 games per year over the past 4 years with many of those games pinch hitting or playing DH.
Petco was 2nd hardest part to hit home runs in. Of Quentin’s 24 home runs in 2011 just 16 would have been a home run by distance in Petco, and that doesnt take into account what the marine layer (thick moist air) a in San Diego will do to the distance the ball carries.
I would be amazed if he hits over .230 with 16-18 home runs and plays more than 119.5 games.
Do you know what we get to do today? We get to talk baseball!
www.websoulsurfer.com
by websoulsurfer on Jan 4, 2012 8:16 PM PST up reply actions
I almost read this
and then I saw the signature and thought better.
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
This is why I was in favor of Josh Willingham.
He is essentially the same guy for the same price and it wouldn’t have cost any prospects. Actually Willingham is a little better fielder, maybe will hit 3 or 4 more dingerz. But I’m not gonna hate on the move as he will easily be our RBI leader.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
Problem with that is Willingham is a FA
Free agent hitters don’t want to sign with the Padres.
by Antonio Olivares on Jan 5, 2012 7:16 PM PST up reply actions
I might be overly optimistic...
but I went over on everything. We tend to have relatively few injuries for a MLB team (last year’s pitching situation aside). Therefore, over 119 games.
Over 20 home runs. ALL of his power/hitting is to left field, which is good, and his away numbers should be fine. I think 20 is doable.
I see errors as a problem. My hunch is that he will try to play better defense than normal because of the dimensions of the outfield… in which case we could see him trying to make some (unadvised) diving plays. However, I do wonder if he has a strong arm since he has normally played in RF.
Depending on who we have in right on any given day
I’m guessing Quentin is helped out having Cam in center. I’m also optimistic that won’t overextend himself in a contract year. Play safe. That’s why I was hesitant to use errors.
yeah, exactly what I was thinking
He may play it safe… or he may try to prove something and go crazy (denorfia, anyone?)
But yeah, he could be like Bonds towards the end of his career where he didn’t really move in left field. He just waited for the ball to come to him or for someone else to come over and get the ball.
I bet his range isn't very good
But he probably won’t make too many errors. Even if he commits more than 3 errors it won’t be over 5. I don’t think UZR will be as harsh on him as it was in 09-10’ either. I don’t think left field in Petco is too tough to play. He’ll probably be something like -5 runs.
I don’t think stats like OPS+ and wRC+ adjust for ballpark based on handedness, but just make a general adjustment. So since Petco has the least affect on a right handed hitter that pulls the ball, like Quentin, I could see his ballpark adjusted stats actually improve from previous seasons.
by Antonio Olivares on Jan 4, 2012 11:57 AM PST reply actions
Have you looked at what he did in much easier park to defend in?
18 errors in 4 years.
4.5 per year on average.
Petco is MUCH bigger park & much easier to defend than Cellular Field
Do you know what we get to do today? We get to talk baseball!
www.websoulsurfer.com
by websoulsurfer on Jan 4, 2012 8:18 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think LF in Petco is tougher to defend in
Could be wrong, but I don’t think so.
by Antonio Olivares on Jan 5, 2012 1:56 AM PST up reply actions
Q will play
173 games (the min amount needed to win the Series)
hit over 20 HRs (5 into the bucket)
and make an unassisted triple play
On the other hand, you have different fingers.
by Hormel on Jan 4, 2012 12:34 PM PST reply actions 9 recs
Plus be the 1st Padre to hit for the cycle.
TBD
by IputtheYinTony on Jan 4, 2012 2:22 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
and in a nod to old times
will take the hill 3 times and throw not only 1 no hitter, but repeat Johnny Van Der Meer’s back to back no hitter performance
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
by Nater Tater on Jan 4, 2012 2:23 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And all of this despite a hefty schedule of catching babies and kissing bitches.
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
Nah, that's gonna be Will Venable.
No pants. No problem.
by jodes0405 on Jan 4, 2012 9:30 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
they are both going to do it
in the same game.
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
by Nater Tater on Jan 4, 2012 10:15 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
But one of them will still have to do it first.
And it will be Venable.
No pants. No problem.
by jodes0405 on Jan 4, 2012 11:46 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Q
Q is going to make 50 home runs just appear, then he will crush the dodgers before they can collapse an anomaly that will destroy all humanity. He will then offer to divest himself of his powers and guide humanity in its quest into uncharted territories and prepare it for unprepared threats.
Q…It’s gonna be awesome.
It's Quentin time.
by turbopan on Jan 4, 2012 2:36 PM PST reply actions 6 recs
He'll also mess with Pablo Sandoval's uniform.
by Darklighter on Jan 4, 2012 3:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
He is not a Merry Man
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
by sdchicken on Jan 5, 2012 5:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Optimist Crowd
Fire Bud Black.
Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser. -- Vince Lombardi
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jan 4, 2012 5:14 PM PST reply actions
I went over on all.
He should top 20 HR, though perhaps not by much. Watching his highlights online, I feel a lot better about the move— when he hits the ball, it jumps and should easily clear Petco’s outfield walls. I’m rather optimistic that he stays healthy, because I’ve read good things about the team docs on this site. And I agree with the general consensus of his fielding— doubt he’ll commit a lot of errors, but he’s not going to be Spider-Cam out there.
Yakety Sax: Making divisional matchups hilarious since 1963.
Gaslamp Ball: SMELLS LIKE PROSPECTS IN HERE
Please, call me StrangeBro.
As long as he's better than Ludwick
Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts
by mrbarneydangles on Jan 5, 2012 6:35 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
Bad as he was, he was still our most productive bat.
"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."
purely by virtue of who was hitting in front of him
he managed to hit .249 with runners on last year.
if we put chase headley in the cleanup spot we might have actually benefited from the fact that he hit .338 with runners on last season.
by iheartyourfart on Jan 5, 2012 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
If CQ doesn't bitch about Petco
Plays hard, and produces to a respectable degree, (Ludwick’s Power and RBI’s with a .240 average) I am very happy.
Padres Fan.
under on all
I am not convinced he is still with the Padres after the trading deadline. It is hard to have over on those numbers if you don’t stay with the team the whole season.
That would be some trick by Dave Roberts and co.
To get him to steal 20 bases.
by Antonio Olivares on Jan 5, 2012 12:42 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
All of those will come against Lincecum
who will be distracted by the players in the Padres dugout suddenly producing Double-Doubles and animal-style fries.
Yakety Sax: Making divisional matchups hilarious since 1963.
Gaslamp Ball: SMELLS LIKE PROSPECTS IN HERE
Please, call me StrangeBro.
by StrangeBroP25 on Jan 8, 2012 7:24 PM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Gaslamp Ball
Related FanShots on Gaslamp Ball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
