'Eaternomics: Does Home Attendance Affect Padres' Play?

If you aren't familiar with Freakonomics, it is in essence a study of the "hidden side of everything" by applying economic principles to everyday actions. This is my mimicry.

I was in the bathtub one day when I remembered something a Padres player said about a series in Philadelphia this year or last. He had said that the entire series had a great playoff atmosphere and he really enjoyed it. This got me wondering, how have the Padres as a whole performed relative to attendance at Petco Park from recently?

First, a note. Read this article at the risk of your own time; I'm writing this as I crunch the numbers and it's entirely possible that there is no direct effect. The idea of finding random, hidden aspects of baseball is appealing to me, but it's hard to think outside of the box sometimes for ideas to test. So part of my intention is to spark debate and bounce ideas back and forth among GLBers.

Let's take a look at the Padres' home attendance numbers in 2011.

Rank: 18
Total Attendance: 1,844,436
Average Per Game: 25,617
Percent Capacity: 60.0

Just ahead of us is the Houston Astros, which is a little surprising because the team is putrid and their stadium is not new. Just behind us is the Chicago White Sox, which is also surprising because they come from a large city, like the Astros, but are quasi-competitive in the AL Central, unlike Houston.

For quick reference, here are 2010's home numbers:

Rank: 18
Total Attendance: 2,131,774
Average Per Game: 26,318
Percent Capacity: 61.9

Very similar to this year, despite early gate figures that had 2011 attendance up around 25 percent over 2010.

And 2009:

Rank: 20
Total Attendance: 1,922,603
Average Per Game: 23,735
Percent Capacity: 55.8

I first need to establish a definition of low-, medium-, and high-attendance games. I've also made a subset of High called Very High.

The average home attendance from 2009-2011 is 25,209. Since that's pretty close to a clean 25,000, let's do this:

Low: 17,999 and below
Medium: 18,000 - 32,000
High: 32,001 - 40,000
	Very High: 40,001+

I don't want to simply break the categories in thirds, because I'm seeking numbers from extreme attendance differences. And happenstance made love to my leg, look at my breakdown totals:

Low: 43
Medium: 148
High: 23
	Very High: 20

Low and High/Very High are both 43 game samples! That's pretty crazy. Also surprising: nearly as many 40,000+ games as 32,001 - 40,000 games. When the Padres go big, they go big.

The Padres home record from 2009-2011 is 117-117 for a .500 win percentage. Let's look at percentages according to my categories:

Low: 19-24 .442
Medium: 79-69 .534
High: 9-14 .391
	Very High: 10-10 .500

High and Very High combine to be 19-24 for a .442 win percentage, same as Low attendance.

What factors could explain a lower winning percentage in 32,001+ games? Well small sample size, yes. Also, you could assume maybe some of those games are attracting fans due to big market opponents, which typically have a +.500 winning percentage. However, this is not the case. Games against Houston and Pittsburgh helped neutralize games against Philadelphia and San Francisco.

I calculated the winning percentage for our opponents in High and Very High attended games from 2009-2011 by averaging their winning percentage in the same year we played them and weighted it equally based on amount of games played against said opponent. For example, in 2009, we played the Dodgers (.586) in front of 40,000+ fans three times, and the Pirates (.385) with 40,000+ in attendance once. The average winning percentage came out to .536 for those four games.

The winning percentage of our opponents in High and Very High attended games from 2009-2011 was .517. As a reminder, our home winning percentage in all games over this span was .500. Therefore, a winning percentage around .480-.490 could reasonably be expected in these games, yet it's a mere .442.

Conclusion/TL;DR

I believe the Padres have slightly underperformed in front of large crowds at Petco Park with recent ball club. Small sample size prevents a definite conclusion, but the resultant winning percentage in these games is a bit too far from the expected winning percentage.

Recommendation, go to games with 18,000 - 32,000 fellow fans in attendance for best chance to see the Padres win.

Your Turn

Point out my mistakes or your theories in the comments, but don't be a jerk, this is meant to be in good fun!