Price for Chase Headley
Hey folks, I'm a writer over at the AZSnakePit D-backs site, and while I know that's hardly the typical demographic of a FanPost writer here, I promise I have a point to this. I recently wrote an enormous post for the 'Pit on the likelihood that second baseman Kelly Johnson leaves the D-backs in free agency this summer, and what Arizona could do to fill the hole he would leave on the roster. With his swing-and-miss-happy ways, overall offensive inconsistency, and Kevin Towers' disdain for strikeouts of every sort, it seems pretty likely that the slumping Johnson will not be retained for 2012 unless he finishes the year on a torrid hot streak.
This led me to discuss replacement options at second base (simply plugging someone into KJ's spot), shortstop (in case Stephen Drew's broken ankle pushes him to second), and third base (moving Ryan Roberts to second) that could be acquirable in some way. The free agent second baseman crop - outside of Johnson, of course - sucks, and although there are plenty of guys lined up to be free agents at the shortstop position, that's consistently one of the more expensive slots to fill. The only half-appealing third baseman in the free agent class for this off-season is Aramis Ramirez, and his horrible defense, atrocious baserunning, and age all make him undesirable, particularly since I think the price will be high.
This leads me to my point: what kind of package do you think it would take to acquire Chase Headley (assuming of course that the D-backs' and Padres' front offices are actually willing to work with each other on a trade with the scary levels of tension between them)? San Diego is in the midst of a pretty significant rebuilding and is always cost-conscious, while Arizona has one of the deeper farm systems in the league and a meteor-sized infield hole. Headley is a Super Two player entering his second of four arbitration seasons, already makes $2.325MM, and unless he OBP's .400 next year I don't see his value - which is significant - ever being higher.
Here's my idea of a trade package, let me know what you think:
LHP Joe Saunders - Saunders is the pitcher the Padres always seem to enjoy acquiring. Low ground ball rate and a pitch-to-contact guy? Check, just 42.4% GB-Rate this year, and a 4.89 K/9. One year of control? Check, Saunders enters his final year of arbitration, and Arizona could chip in cash to lower the $7-8MM pricetag he'll probably command. Legitimate trade value to flip at the deadline? Another check, as in spite of Saunders' poor peripherals in 2011, he's had a career trend of out-pitching them, and his incredible ERA for the D-backs this year at Chase Field will convince some team looking for a starter next year that Saunders' success at Petco - because, let's face it, he'll have success at Petco - isn't a mirage. If we pay Saunders down to $4MM, he'll give you good innings and a nice prospect return.
OF A.J. Pollock - He's not a guy with home run power, but he's second in the Southern League in doubles, can play CF with plus defense in a corner, more than enough arm strength for right field, consistently makes contact, and can take a walk. Seems like the perfect guy to put in one of the top two slots of a lineup that kills home run power as it is. He's an everyday outfielder for the Padres the moment the plane lands in San Diego, and Maybin/Pollock is two-thirds of an excellent outfield for that park.
LHP Patrick Schuster - I've watched Schuster a lot this year, as I go to college at Notre Dame and Schuster has pitching for the Low-A South Bend Silver Hawks. Here's what you need to know: he's currently works only in the upper-80's (86-88 is what a scout told me at one of the games I saw him work) but is rail-thin and immeasurably projectable and should add velocity, gets a ton of movement on his pitches to generate ground balls, has a clean arm action (though he's costing himself zip by not always striding towards home plate), and has the off-speed arsenal necessary to be a major-league starter if he adds velocity and refines his command/control. Ceiling is as a #3 if he throws harder as he fills out.
I'd love to hear some thoughts from you all. Headley's a great player, probably somewhere in the 4-4.5 fWAR range as an everyday 3B (solid as his defense is, it isn't 16.5 UZR solid going forward IMO), but this package gets you a cheap starter (if AZ chips in) who can be flipped for a good return, a top prospect who would be in San Diego for the next six years, and a young arm to dream on. Are there positional needs that I should be looking closer at? Would you rather have more prospects than Saunders? Do you want arms closer to the big leagues and/or bats lower in the minors? Am I delusional for writing a post to suggest a trade between two teams that, for nearly too many reasons to count, seem to have front offices that hate each other with a passion? Any thoughts would be appreciated.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
54 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Probably two prospects
Chris Owings and Tyler Skaggs
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
Saunders doesn't really fit
While I think he is a fine pitcher, he is not looking at what the Padres are looking for, they have like three guys like Saunders that will be looking for a rotation spot next year.
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
No way you get Tyler Skaggs in that trade.
He’s a top 5 prospect in a pitching centric farm system.
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
I guess it could happen but it would be a total coup for you guys.
"When Life gives you Lemons give the lemons BACK!"
Skaggs won't happen
And I doubt we sell Owings now while he’s having a not-great year but is the youngest position player in his league. The best pitcher you might be able to get is Pat Corbin, but I don’t think we’d give up much more on top of that – definitely not a position player prospect as good as Pollock. Pat Corbin, Collin Cowgill, and a relief prospect (Ryan Cook?)?
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 4, 2011 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with both of you that it is a high priced
but I think Jed realize how valuable Chase is at 3b right now. The 3b situation in the NL (and MLB as a whole, save a few true stars) is really thin. Definetly the thinnest of all the positions (sans Catcher which is always going to be weak).
Padres have ton of corner position players that project to be mlb regulars and pitchers that project to be middle of the rotation, what they don’t have is SS-2B prospects or any prospect that looks to have all-star potential. So I think that is what Jed is going to try to target if he is going to move some one as valuable as Chase (even if his numbers/tools are not sexy)
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
That glut of 3B in the Pads' system
Is exactly why I thought of Headley. Problem is, Arizona’s middle infield depth is our worst in the system, and I truly doubt we sell off our most prized middle infield asset. I don’t know if David Nick would do anything as a third prospect in a trade for you?
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:39 AM PDT up reply actions
A while back KT was interviewed and he said
that he prefers Kouzmanoff over Headley. Based on that, I don’t believe he has much interest in trading for Chase.
Well now that
Is just really freaking depressing… :-(
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 4, 2011 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions
welcome to the KT Era
but if Drew is healthy and can stay at SS, Roberts at 3B, what would it take for you to have a return of O-Dog to Arizona??
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
Thanks,
But no thanks. :-P
And yes, I’m already very quickly becoming wary of KT’s free agent wheelings and dealings. So glad we spent $18.5MM in guaranteed contract money to reel in Armando Galarraga, Zach Duke, Aaron Heilman, Melvin Mora, Xavier Nady, Russell Branyan, Geoff Blum, Willie Bloomquist, and Henry Blanco.
:-( x over 9,000
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 4, 2011 10:17 PM PDT up reply actions
yet somehow you guys are hangin in there this year
be wary also of what he will do to your farm.
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
As the dude who writes the minor league round-ups every day
And creates post-season org top prospect lists for the club (I have a running spreadsheet of about 50 guys), I’m being very wary. So far, so good with the 2011 draft.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:41 AM PDT up reply actions
but he can find arms in a leopard colony.
Plus he will rape another GM about every 4 years in a trade that makes the team solid, but his FA signings will keep huge wholes in the lineup from make the team a true championship contender.
Plus I really believe that he thinks the draft is a military draft and he avoids it so he doesn’t have do any service time
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
by Ron Mexico on Aug 4, 2011 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
wow...
I mean finding arms in a leper colony is impressive but when he starts finding leopards that can pitch…..the man is good!
I actually was a very big KT supporter while he was here, and was not pleased that he went to AZ. He should have a little bit of money to play with in AZ, and hell, he picked up all those bench/random guys and the dbacks are much better than the padres are this year. I think give him a few years and his teams will be consistently competitive….made up of random role players and a badass bullpen.
leopards have no arms or opposable thumbs, makes finding one that pitches really difficult.
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
At the same time, though,
They’re pretty explosive striding towards home plate off the rubber. Plus, the batter not only has to try to identify the pitch and choose whether it’ll be a ball or a strike, but he’s got to watch out for a freaking leopard…
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Actually, it's pretty easy to find arms in a leper colony
They’re usually lying around on the ground or stacked up in bins.
What I need is an electric monk
by Boilermaker19 on Aug 5, 2011 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Whole replacement-level players?
I mean, Willie Bloomquist is technically intact…
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Is Pollock MLB-ready?
If we wanted a slap-hitting outfielder who doesn’t have great HR potential and CAN’T start in the bigs, we’d go out and get one for ourselv— hey, Chris Denorfia… I didn’t see you there
The Padres are good, but make no mistake: we've gotta beef up the linwup.
If I had a nickel from every SBN blog that has banned me, Arrowhead Pride would owe me 5¢.
"I'm so psyched, I'm gonna smoke a doobie and poop on my hot dog." --Dex
by StrangeBroP25 on Aug 4, 2011 11:03 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Pollock =/= slap hitter
111 wOBA+ in the Southern League, 23.3% line drive rate (StatCorner.com). Legitimate doubles guy, and could be a regular in center field or somewhere with enormous outfield corners. Hence why I thought of the Pads.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Allays my worries but does not answer my question
The Southern League is not the National League. Is he ready to be a contributor at the next level?
The Padres are good, but make no mistake: we've gotta beef up the linwup.
If I had a nickel from every SBN blog that has banned me, Arrowhead Pride would owe me 5¢.
"I'm so psyched, I'm gonna smoke a doobie and poop on my hot dog." --Dex
by StrangeBroP25 on Aug 5, 2011 6:51 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Yep.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Trade isn't happening
With that being said, thanks for actually doing a little research before coming here with trade suggestions. Nothing worse than the Red Sox fans that would come here with trade ideas before the Adrian deal.
Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts
by mrbarneydangles on Aug 4, 2011 11:12 PM PDT reply actions
or Cubs fans
“GIVE Us Jake Peavy for a bat rack and a bucket of balls”
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
If they're still interested
I hear that might be the asking price these days.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I did a bit more
Than a little research. :-P I’m being sarcastic of course, but this is the biggest hole on the D-backs for 2012, might as well put a little thought into how it’ll be fixed.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:46 AM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn't mind trading Chase
But seeing the FA options, who could we get at 3B that would be worth anything (and sadly, also cheap)?
Also, you put a crap pitcher in Petco and he gets marginally better (stats people keep telling me this). Just FYI when talking about pitching here….those cheap high-floor low-ceiling FA types that Jed loves means that pitching should never be a real issue for this team, much less having to make a trade for someone who is paid decently (of course for us they’re “being overpaid”, ha-ha).
we have a few 3b in the pipeline
James Darnell could be here next year maybe a September call-up.
Gryoko is about 2-3 years away.
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
Yeah that's my other issue
why Trade our starting 3B and best hitter for a pitcher with okay numbers scheduled to make more than a guy we have an option on for next year (Harang)
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
I'd go with Darnell, personally.
Think he’s a darn good bat. OPS over 1.000 in San Antonio? Yes, please.
Saunders isn’t exactly a crap pitcher. Career ERA of 4.1-ish, he’s a fringey #3/awesome #4 starter, and better than the post-Dusty Harangs of the world. With AZ chipping in money (I recognized who I was dealing with here), someone will pay up at next year’s deadline. Heck, Doug Fister got the Mariners something half-useful, Joe Saunders would do the same for the Padres.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 1:50 AM PDT up reply actions
I never said Saunders was a crap pitcher either
He seems to be rather average, maybe a bit above average…..my point was though that we shouldn’t need to worry about AZ chipping in money because there would be an FA out there who is cheaper (coming off a down year, most likely) and would probably pitch just as well because of their deviation back to their normal stat line and the influence of Petco Park. That’s why I don’t see Jed making a trade like that.
Never trade!!!
1) Within the division.
2) With Towers…
3) Your best hitter while he is cheap.
Lock up Chase for 4 years… remaining 3 arb and 1 FA. Trade some of the 3B depth for some outfielders worth a d*ck or move them to the outfield for a full season or two.
Anyone who spikes a ball after tagging out a douche like Andres Torres is OK by me.
I agree
Lock up Chase. He’s much more valuable to the Padres then he is as trade bait. He’s a 4+ WAR 3B under control for 3 more years. Since he doesn’t supply much pop he would probably be undervalued on the trade market. It should take at least an Adrian like haul for the Padres to think about trading him. Which for Arizona’s system would be like Skaggs, Parker, and Cowgill. Which isn’t going to happen.
Sign Chase to a 4 year deal. Move Darnell to the outfield. Try Gyorko at 2B or in the outfield. If Darnell and Gyorko show at the major league level that they can hit, THEN think about trading Chase.
In a perfect world Darnell sticks at RF, Gyorko can handle 2B for 2013, then in 2014 Spangenberg takes over with Gyorko moving to 3B and Chase being traded then.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 5, 2011 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Skaggs + Parker >>> Rizzo + Kelly
Skaggs is a top-20 prospect, and I think Parker’s better (though I’m definitely in the minority there). Neither Kelly nor Rizzo were close to that kind of a prospect a year ago.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Agree Skaggs + Parker>> Rizzo + Kelly
Using Baseball America Skaggs is 19 and Parker 40, Kelly was 31 and Rizzo 75. But Fuentes was much more highly thought of than Cowgill. I thought that would even it out a bit.
Plus if you use Victor Wang’s research on prospect trade value then pitchers ranked 1-50 are all pretty much of equal value. A hitting prospect ranked 75th worth just a little less than that. Also Chase’s value is greater than Adrian’s.
Obviously teams don’t operate based on his research, but it gives you an idea of their value. And I was just trying to throw out a package that would give you an idea of the haul the Padres would have to receive to be interested in moving Headley. To get across the idea that it’s more than you would be willing to offer.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 6, 2011 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Teams are warming to Cowgill
As much as I don’t buy it… apparently Oakland asked for Cowgill first for Ziegler before settling for Brandon Allen.
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 6, 2011 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions
So you want to buy bats for the present?...
Interesting strategy. Pollock is an outfielder worth a, erm, d*ck…
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
The problem is needs.
The Padres system lacks in three major areas. TOR pitching, middle infield, and catching. None of the players you suggested or even willing to talk about match in those areas. If the Padres are going to even listen are trading currently their best position player they will have to at least get something that makes an impact in one of those areas. If they don’t they might as well keep him until an offer comes along that makes more sense. Headley will still have another 3 seasons of team control ahead of him, and Darnell isn’t ready yet anyways. So if they are going to move him you are going to have to give up more then you mentioned, simply cause it doesn’t the Padres needs.
The 2012 rotation will include Stuaffer – Latos – Richards – Lubkue plus any FA that wants to rebuild their value, thus no need for Saunders. Especially since Castro-Kelly-Bass-Erlin-Wieland-Oramas (or some combination thereof) will be in AAA. Basically if the Padres wanted to add a third left hander to the rotation next year they could do it from within without a problem.
The other two you name may have value to the Padres, but only if you believe what Pollock is doing in AA can translate to the major now. If not then the Padres are only looking at adding to the logjam in the Corners with that move. It doesn’t make sense. Schuster is a nice piece, but thats exact what the Padres are deep in, mid to back of the rotation starters.
"Hey Laserlips. Your mama was a snowblower."
Stuaffer – Latos – Richards – Lubkue
At least pretend that you’re trying to spell their names right!
Yeah, I will give that too you.
I was doing it quickly, and I didn’t read it to check errors. There are a lot of them.
"Hey Laserlips. Your mama was a snowblower."
Do you really need TOR pitching?
Or pitching of any sort? Aside from the obvious fact that every team needs arms, those four big-league guys plus Kelly, Castro, Erlin, and Wieland is a pretty good stash of pitching, with much of having more than just back-end filler potential. Saunders was included because Arizona could pay a bunch of his salary in 2012 – if we give you Saunders at, say, $3MM, you’re not going to get better value for one year on the free agent market, regardless of how much rebound-year magic you can scrounge up from the sewers of fly-ball pitch-to-contact veterans.
If none of those prospects is ready to begin the 2012 season in the major leagues – and I think it’s unwise to simply assume one will be – you’ll need someone. Every team needs more than five starters throughout the course of the year. I wouldn’t be looking to rush guys like those prospects to the major leagues just to fill rotation holes – those are the type of prospects you bring up when you’re absolutely sure they’re ready for the Show.
Pollock is a good big-league bat if you ask me. I guess his inclusion would depend on what the Padres’ scouts think of him.
Arizona has basically no middle infield or catching depth – Owings isn’t someone I’d give up, and the only other guy who’s relevant is David Nick, who’s more of a C+ grade guy. It’s not so much that I’m reluctant to give up prospects in those slots in general, it’s just that Owings is the only one that’s above that C+ grade, and I wouldn’t give up on him this quickly. There just isn’t anything else there to discuss if you’re looking at those positions. A bit of an issue, unless you want an old Triple-A third catcher depth type. We’ll give you Lucas May or Konrad Schmidt for free if you want ’em. :-P
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
the point is that you don't pedal middling starting pitching talent to the padres
we can honestly get as much as we want for cheap.
by iheartyourfart on Aug 5, 2011 9:10 PM PDT up reply actions
#3 starter is middling?
I’m not sure if that’s a fair statement, although I do understand your point.
The reality is that it’s probably not a good trade match-up. You don’t really need to give up talent in order to get pitchers that don’t project out as elite, and the two position players in our system that would be fair centerpieces for a trade – Matt Davidson and Bobby Borchering – are third basemen who have slim chances or sticking at third and would otherwise be destined for first or left field, and you already have these three guys named Gyorko, Darnell, and Rizzo who fill those exact three spots.
Bummer, Headley would be awesome in Arizona. :-(
Founder and Chairman of the Hire A Body Double For David Hernandez's Right Arm Commission. A non-profit organization.
by Dan Strittmatter on Aug 5, 2011 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions
but if you want to reconsider on Hudson...
let us know. We’ll throw in Bartlett too
Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981
he just had tommy john surgery
he’s gone for the year. and there’s no way his $6m option gets picked up
by iheartyourfart on Aug 6, 2011 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Well if we look at it from a sabre point of view, I dont see that package working for the Padres.
Just from a basic standpoint of looking at value via the trade value calc from BTBS it would appear that chase (given normal arb awards 40-60-80) would provide about 20(4 WAR player) to 28 (5 WAR player) in surplus value (in millions of dollars not WAR). Thus is we use Victor Wang’s numbers I would say that package isn’t really worth moving Headley for.
"Hey Laserlips. Your mama was a snowblower."
I think he is worth even more surplus value than that
If he is a 4 WAR player over the next 3 years then the trade value calculator with normal arb awards is over-estimating what he will actually get over that time. He made 2.3 this year. He will probably make about 4.5 next year then about 7 and 11 in 2013 and 2014. It’s not like the arbitration system loves 3B with Chase’s skill set. You can also throw in the type A value of about 5M. If you use those numbers the calculator spits out 37M in surplus value if you plug in 4 WAR the next 3 years.
by Antonio Olivares on Aug 5, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions

by 
























