FanPost

Hoyer and rebuilding; lost season

This post is assessing the impact of Hoyer and his moves he has made and the impact on the season.  I am splitting them into two types:  arbitrage (trading lesser for better, current value) vs. future building (trading good, current value for good, future value).

 

So, on the arbitrage, I think he has done really well.  Maybin for relievers, big win.  Bartlett has been solid.  Picking up Guzman has been really nice.  Hudson is better than Eckstein, no matter his Twitter issues.  No issues there, and a promising sign for the future.

On the future building, I would put the Gonzalez and Adams trades in that camp.  Everyone knows they are both extremely good, and he is trading their current contribution for the future contribution of what he got back.  Time will tell on how well he did there, but he made this year's team worse because of it.  How much worse?  For Gonzalez, I looked at his VORP last year (44.5) and estimated getting half a year of that (before Guzman started) ~ 22.5 runs.  The 1B we had in his absence was -17, for delta of 39 runs.  By my calculations of using Pythagorean estimates, that is worth about 5 wins.  Adams is a bit less quantitative, but I am going to say we do not blow those first two games in NY and that Cinci game with him in the 8th inning.  So another 3 wins.  

So if you take our current W/L (way under our Pythagorean projection), you get 67-62, or 2.5 games back.  An even more aggressive valuation is saying that Adrian was worth more than his runs because during that stretch (Apr - Jun) we lost so many close games with black hole at first, you could easily see him adding more than 5 wins.  So let's say with him we hit our Pythagorean projections, then we would be 70-59, 1/2 game in first.  If any of those marginal wins were against SF or Arizona, or position would be even better.

So, props to his acumen on swapping lesser value for better value, but their (understandable) decision to build for the future arguably cost us another run at the playoffs.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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