Why Heath Bell Must Be Traded
by mcgrath on May 1, 2011 10:33 AM PDT
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PrintHeath Bell is among the premier closers in the game, if not the best. He's a good guy, a good teammate and really wants to stay in San Diego. The fans love him and he loves the fans. And he must (and I believe will) be traded prior to the mid-Summer trading deadline.
The Padres are going nowhere this season. Their need for a premier closer in 2011 is to win games in which they're ahead by a run or two going into the ninth, of which there will be precious few. If Bell keeps producing the way he has, it could mean the difference between a 3rd or 4th place division finish rather than 5th. Then again, maybe not.
The Padres have three excellent candidates to fill Bell's role: Adams, Gregorson and Frieri. Of those, Frieri may well have the best temperament to close, if not yet the best stuff. The point is, the Padres will hardly be left high and dry should Bell depart. A three way competition for new Padres closer later this season may be about the only thing left to retain fan interest.
Bell's gaudy save numbers should be worth a jackpot of golden prospects from a contending team come late July. Equal to or exceeding what the club got for Adrian. It will be a seller's market soon, and of course Bell is in the final year of his $7.5 million contract. Paying less than half that for the game's top closer, for two months plus postseason would be a drop in the bucket for most teams in the thick of a pennant race.
In the great book "Moneyball", the point was made that closers are systematically overpriced, largely because of the sole statistic by which they're judged: the save. A save is earned quite easily in many siturations; i.e. a three run lead going into the 9th. Most slightly above average pitchers could be given the closer's role, accumulate a gaudy number of saves with a winning team, then get blue ribbon trade value after a year or two. The point was made that supposedly great closers are far more fungible than, say, great hitters.
Let me clarify...Heath Bell is not a mirage. He is the real deal. Baseball people know this. That's why he will generate huge returns on the trade market this summer. The Padres will get tremendous prospects in exchange for a 33 year old pitcher they can't afford in 2012 anyway. And best of all, there is someone waiting in the wings who can and likely will become the third straight Padres superstar in the closer's role.
Gotta happen and will.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
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honestly doesn't make sense to resign him
when you have 2 legitimate options (Frieri, Adams), then there is no reason to spend close to 25% of your payroll on a closer that will throw 60-70 innings. Makes the most sense to trade him, see if you can get someone who will be an every day player, a starter or a few big arms that could develop into relief.
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
how much will he get paid per year?
by SD Jake on May 1, 2011 12:07 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Even if he takes a discount, probably at least 7 M/year
Which is too much for us to pay to a reliever.
From the perspective of just making your baseball team better he should have been traded this offseason. The only reason he wasn’t is for the sake of public relations.
by Antonio Olivares on May 1, 2011 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
a lot of people believe
you can get more for a closer at the trade deadline
by iheartyourfart on May 1, 2011 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions
3 years / 20 million
i’d say if they get to that point, there’s probably a decent chance that we sign him. that said, if you look at it from a “moneyball” perspective, there’s no reason not to trade him.
I think we should trade him to the Angels
The angels are a contending team in desperate need of a legit closer. They also have some nice middle infield prospects. I would be happy to get Jean Segura.
Plus it would be good for Bell since he grew up there.
Alternatively if they could somehow pry Jurickson Profar from the Rangers I’d be stoked.
by Antonio Olivares on May 1, 2011 1:38 PM PDT reply actions
The Angels don't trade minor leaguers.
Well, they do so very rarely. And they’ll never give anything good.
by Zach (maestro876) on May 1, 2011 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
Sounds made up
Like Professor Professorson
Why ask a failed romance to come watch your successful one? You know, that's like inviting the Seattle Mariners to a World Series game. It's just weird for everyone.
If we got either Segura or Profar
that would be awesome. We badly need a talented middle infield prospect and both would fit the bill. I think I read that Segura was a natural 2b which is also a long term need.
It’ll be interesting to see what kind of position players we snag in this years draft.
Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts
by mrbarneydangles on May 1, 2011 5:34 PM PDT up reply actions
definitely
i believe everth can be a solid guy at some point, but depth should be a priority… also, cumberland isn’t going to be the 2B of the future.
by iheartyourfart on May 1, 2011 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Trade Mcgrath to MCC
Denorfia sucks.
Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser. -- Vince Lombardi
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on May 1, 2011 2:21 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
I tend to agree about Bell.
But I’m not ready to write this season off yet. I advocate trading him at the deadline while we’re in contention. As much as I love Heath, our bullpen can handle the loss and the combination of trade return and salary relief will be a boon to the club for years.
by Rich Garcia's defective eyes on May 1, 2011 11:24 PM PDT reply actions
Typical net expert advice - trade good players for magic beans (prospects).
The Padres were going nowhere several times – did they trade Trevor?
The Phillies were going nowhere after 27 games last year – did they dump veterans?
The “He only pitches 60-70 innings” bit is bunk. Ace closers are worth the money.
With an ace closer who reliably slams the door, you force the other team to play an
8-inning game, a HUGE tactical advantage. As Bud said, when you have an ace, it
sets up the entire bullpen, with the others falling into their roles.
Sure we have replacement candidates, but they haven’t demonstrated the success that
Bell has. Adams is nearly as old as Bell and an injury risk. Gregerson has two years of
major league experience, and Frieri less than one. Anybody remember Linebrink? He was
supposed to step in for Trevor. He ended up losing his edge before Trevor did.
Bell wasn’t traded in the off season because they traded Adrian ! Had they traded Bell too,
attendance would have gone down the toilet. Adrian wanted to leave Petco, and wouldn’t
take a home team discount. Bell wants to stay and WILL take a discount.
The farm has a number of prospects just coming into their own, and added three good prospects from the Adrian trade. Jed has extra picks in an excellent draft group coming up
including a comp #10 for not signing Whitson. With a good draft, Jed can supercharge the
farm. Even if he doesn’t settle with Bell, he can keep him all year and get a couple more
picks in another predicted good draft group next year.
At some point, a team has to have a mix of young, improving talent and established
veterans, and limit itself to weeding out underperformers with prospects or trades on a
case by case basis to become more competitive. That’s where the Padres are now, not
rebuilding, not “going nowhere” after 27 games with one hundred and thirty five games to go. The Padres are competitive now, and starting to jell. They won
Saturday and Sunday in L.A. They’re on a winning streak! Nothing to worry about.
by wegotballsley on May 2, 2011 9:38 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Some thoughtful comments...
but the derisive title is just the impetus I need to save this thread until the July 31 trading deadline and republish then.
Oh, and the final four sentences make me wonder if the author isn’t a member of the Pads’ hierarchy incognito!! Typical management happy talk.
bell must stay
screw all the rational thinking and “analysis,” what’s that good for anyway? i agree with this dude. we need a guy like heath to keep the fans coming to the games – that magnetic type of player that doesn’t require park personnel flashing the “make some noise” signs on the big screen to get the crowd to ‘make some noise’ (billowing fire and breaking benjamin takes care of that with heath). now that adrian’s gone there’s nobody else that gets us really that stoked when he gets to the plate/mound. bell’s the man here. let’s not f*** that up.
by derntootin on May 3, 2011 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Problem is
When we lose more games than we win, Heath doesn’t get in the game all that often.
Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts
by mrbarneydangles on May 3, 2011 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Value of Heath Bell
There’s no way the Padres would get similar to what they got from the Red Sox for AGon. But they could get more than usual if HB continues on his current tear and a team becomes very desperate at the deadline (due to injury or general inconsistency). If teams think they can win a World Series they’ll do crazy things.
The Twins gave up a promising prospect (Wilson Ramos?) for Capps from the Nationals last year and the Marlins gave up Adrian Gonzalez for Ugueth “I will kill you” Urbina back in 2003.
The Marlins won the Series. Hopefully and trade of Bell works in that direction… without Heath Bell becoming a murder, of course.
one solid prospect
i would bet we get one solid rizzo-type player. a solid mid-minor leaguer with upside. perhaps an additional throw in semi-prospect or marginal big leaguer like patterson. a-gon was a great player, probably near the MVP-echelon, who the sox also got at 1 year way under market value. Heath is a great player, but if he’s traded near the deadline it would probably be a rental. if we get something slightly better than the matt capps trade, i’d say we were in good shape.
by iheartyourfart on May 2, 2011 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions
One solid prospect is just fine.
We don’t quanity, we need one prospect who can turn into a solid big league player.
Nats got Ramos for Capps, and Capps was a FAR inferior closer at the time (or even now)
I think we’ll be okay if we sold.
Perhaps I did overstate Bell's value...
…especially since whoever gets him will have him for just two monts plus postseason. But that team would have as good a chance as anyone to sign him to a longer contract. Getting even one super solid prospect, like Rizzo, would be a great deal. Teams in pennant races but without a closer are prone to give up more than they should.
We’re paying Bell 7.5 million in 2011. For that you could probably get Adams and Frieri for three years.
adams was paid something like $2mil
in lieu of arbitration this year. IMO that was totally dependent on him not being the closer. if we ship off Bell and re-sign adams it would probably be at least $4-5mil. then if he closes for a full season and puts up the same ungodly numbers he’s been putting up you can bet he’s gonna want a long term deal worth at least what heath is asking for now. trading bell wouldn’t be huge for the payroll. It would have to be a good deal in terms of talent.
by iheartyourfart on May 6, 2011 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Trade Bell, Sign Adams for 4-5 years
Totally agree with the article. My clear choice is Mike Adams. He is nasty and we can sign him for 4-5 yrs without over paying. Another year or two and he will be getting top money from somebody else. We need to cash in on Bell while we can when it’s a sellers market. I don’t care where the player we get in return plays as long as he is right handed and can hit for power.
So you don't want a pitcher from the trade?
And 4-5 years means big money. It’s not like Adams will sign a 5 year contract for chump change when people write articles about how great he is.
Why ask a failed romance to come watch your successful one? You know, that's like inviting the Seattle Mariners to a World Series game. It's just weird for everyone.
Closing is a completely different animal
and I wouldn’t give a multiyear contract to somebody to be my closer if he hasn’t proven he can handle the role. The one time Milwaukee tried him as a closer he absolutely tongued sphincters out there. Small sample size, yes, but it’s better than no sample size.
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
by TheThinGwynn on May 6, 2011 12:42 PM PDT up reply actions
true there's no guarantees he becomes a great closer
but he didn’t start throwing the cutter until he became a padre (thanks, budballs!) and it became his go-to pitch and turned him into a totally different pitcher. on a related note, buddy and ballsley don’t get enough credit for spotting potential and helping pitchers get to where they need to be. way too many people just think it’s the petco effect.
Moseley is another great example. I watched him pitch mop-up all year for the yanks last year and he’s a totally different pitcher now that he’s a padre. The cutter has turned him into a serious groundball machine. Is it coincidence that stauff, clay, and others are having such great success with that pitch?
by iheartyourfart on May 6, 2011 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
While getting a cutter worked out for them,
Nancy Spungeon had much worse results.
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
this is totally the year of the cutter
its like everyone in the MLB is working into their arsenal this year. its easy to learn, puts less stress on the arm than the slider, and roy halladay throws one.
by iheartyourfart on May 7, 2011 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
Would an Iggy Pop joke have worked better?
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
Completely agree...
with every word in this comment. It’s more than just Petco. I think Black coached Moseley with the Angels, right? He does have an eye for pitching talent.
I'm sick of trading away true "padre" players
for undeveloped minor league prospects.
is this rash on my groin normal?
The post 2000 list of true Padres players who have been traded for undeveloped minor league prospects
Adrian Gonzalez
Jake Peavy
One of which has been productive since the trade.
totally
bell is the face of the padres. without him, who else do the fans really connect with? he’s always out in the community, he’s always out signing baseballs and trying to connect with fans. there’s other guys on the team that try to do that stuff, but none of them have that x-factor that heath does – that extra something that draws you to him but you can’t quite describe, but you know it when you see it (like obscenity). if he goes, who else is there for us to get stoked on? how perfect is bell not only for this team but for this community? and tell me you don’t get chills when that sexy beast comes running out of the pen…totally worth a 3 year ~$20M deal. get it done jed.
Trade Adams
over the next 3-4 years Adams and Bell would probably earn similar amounts of dough. Bell wants a three year deal at a SD discount (probably 20-25mil). If we trade him this season and Adams continues to pitch as awesome as he pitches, but as a closer instead of a set up man, he will earn at least $6-7 million in arbitration. Same as Bell, and then you gotta sign him again or worry about trading him and finding a new closer.
Since he hasn’t been a superstar closer, Adams wouldn’t net as high of a return as Bell, but in terms of cost and on-field ability they are probably close to equal in the long run. The advantage of keeping Bell over Adams is, while i’m not trying to knock Adams in any way, Bell is basically the face of the franchise at this point. Everyone loves and respects him, he’s a definite leader who players and fans rally around. From a fan goodwill/PR standpoint it makes much more sense to trade Adams than Bell, especially if you can get a MLB level or near-ready hitting prospect for Adams.
All of a sudden instead of the front office saying “we traded away our star closer because we couldn’t afford him” it becomes more of a “we traded our setup man because we needed to get a bat”
Trolling as in motorboating?
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
by TheThinGwynn on May 9, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Disagree.
Bell will get a three year deal for 20 million if he signs with the Padres.
Adams can likely be had for two years for 7-8 million total, or for three years for 10 million. You trade Bell before July 31 and get one or two great prospects. You make Adams your closer, then after he equals Bell’s save numbers, which he will, you trade him after two years for more big value. You then make Frieri or Gregerson your guy.
Closers with big save numbers are worth the same as 30 HR / year hitters, but closers are MUCH easier to find and groom. I say exploit what you have for maximum value. And what this team has are one superstar saver and three who could be.
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