Two Series In: Time to Tinker
by John Gennaro on Apr 7, 2011 9:27 AM PDT
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Print5 games and 2 series into the 2011 season, and it is certainly not time to panic. If we're taking anything away from these games, it should be a sense of relief that the 2011 Padres look an awful lot like the 2010 Padres that just barely missed the playoffs. That's a good thing.
Now it's time for Buddy Black to do what most good managers do, and tinker with things to find the best mix/lineup going forward. This is done all the time. A good example is the Red Sox, earlier this week, moving Carl Crawford down in the lineup because he was struggling. This is a perfect time to try things like that and see what works, and I'd love it if Buddy would try the following things:
Bench Brad Hawpe - No, I'm not panicking. There's something wrong with his swing. He missed a good chunk of games last year and only got 300 or so ABs, as opposed to his usual 500+. He's rusty, he's coming off injury and he's learning a new position. I don't think it would surprise anyone if he needed to be eased into the role of starting 1B right now.
It would be a great story, and a great pickup, if Hawpe can get back to the hitter he was with the Rockies. However, the place for him to figure out the issues with his swing is not in the middle of the lineup, it's in the batting cage with Randy Ready. Let him do that and switch roles with Jorge Cantu (pinch-hitter/occasional starter) until he shows improvement.
Cantu was obviously disappointed with the idea that he wasn't going to be the main starter here, this gives him a chance to prove that he can be. His splits say he almost the exact same hitter against RHPs than he is against LHPs, so it's not like he's not suited for the role. Hell, he might be better suited than Hawpe.
I Believe That We Will Venable - I get it. He's not as good against LHPs as he is against RHPs, and Buddy loves giving starts to Chris Denorfia. If this is how it's going to be, where Venable can't possibly play against lefties, I wish he wouldn't be 1) asked to lead off, so that the entire top of the order has to be reshuffled every few days and 2) asked to be more of a contact hitter, which he hasn't been so far.
If it were me, I'd realize that the only way Will is going to be that contact hitter is if I show him that he's going to be my #1 hitter on a near-daily basis. Otherwise, those dreams dancing in Will's head of him becoming an All-Star are followed by Will thinking he has to start doing something extraordinarily special (like because a power threat while playing in PETCO Park).
Seriously, follow my line of reasoning here. Will is essentially being told "We know you have the potential to be a 5-tool player and that's great, but we want you to be a contact hitter that plays about half of the time instead." At the same time, Will knows the deal. If he hits a HR, he gets to play the next day....usually. If he hits a bunch of HRs, he becomes the team's best power threat and gets to play every day and possibly live up to all that potential. So, if he's a little torn with how to go about his limited opportunities....I don't know that I blame him. If you show him that his opportunities will not be as limited, he might be more willing to go along with The Plan.
If I were the manager, I'd do two things. I'd move Venable down in the lineup (#7 sounds about right) and have Jason Bartlett-Orlando Hudson as my 1-2 every day. "But Bartlett's not a leadoff hitter!" somebody is about to say. And Venable (playing 60% of the time) is? Consistency from day to day at the top of the lineup is good. I'd also let Will face one of the lefties in the Dodgers series (I think we'll see both Ted Lilly and Clayton Kershaw) and see how he fares. He deserves that shot.
Move Nick Hundley Up in the Lineup - This is not a lineup of Adrian Gonzalezes. We've established that, right? Any big hitting threat we get is most likely going to be a "hot streak" by somebody like Hundley or Chase Headley, and should probably be taken advantage of.
So far, Hundley has hit #8 in every single game this season. Why not put him 4th or 5th and see if he can't keep it up? It certainly wouldn't hurt the guys hitting in front of him, it would give him more RBI opportunities (hypothetically) and would get him more ABs while he's scorching hot. Think about this: Right now, there is no position player on the Padres that is getting less plate appearances per game than Hundley....and yet he's the one guy that everyone is talking about being "locked in". That seems backwards.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
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Gonzalololololoezes.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
by Axion on Apr 7, 2011 10:38 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I am a strong believe in:
Winning and our of reach, use reserves. Losing and out of reach, fight to the death. If Buddy had used this philosophy, would would have has our hottest hitter up with a chance to tie the game.
Venable does need to be our everyday starter for sure. Denorfia is terrible, and his only getting the playing time he is because of his 6 homers in a 2 week span streak last August.
I don’t think Hawpe is going to work out anything on the bench however. If it is his swing, you are right, but if its just confidence he needs to get out there. Cantu will get his AB’s spelling Headley and facing lefties.
"We fight, we claw, we hang around. We find a way to do it." - Cam Maybin
Hundley should hit 3rd
as long as he’s our best impression of Adrian. Batting him any lower is just taking at-bats away from him and run production away from the team.
Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.
Maybe Hudson should be our #8 hitter
He has enough speed to possibly steal a bag before the pitcher sac bunts.
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
It doesnt matter what order they bat in
If we dont have more than one one person consistantly get on base
by SD Jake on Apr 7, 2011 12:00 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
headley is actually doing a good job also
Ill take a .381 obp any day.
by SD Jake on Apr 7, 2011 12:02 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
At one point
This post included an “every day lineup” that had Headley 3rd and Hundley 4th.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
by John Gennaro on Apr 7, 2011 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
wouldnt mind that
I actually like venable lead off. But I agree he needs to be playing pretty much every day, even against lefties.
by SD Jake on Apr 7, 2011 12:11 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I guess using Francona's BoSox as an example is bad...
Since they are now, y’know, 0-6…
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
At least they're doing something was John's point
http://twitter.com/matthewverygood
http://lobsterstuffedwithtacos.tumblr.com
by matthewverygood on Apr 7, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I know, it just seemed like this was the best thread to post that the Red Sox lost ANOTHER game :-)
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
This is why I didn't respond
I knew it was more an announcement than criticism.
I’d like to point out that Adrian Gonzalez is once again on a team where he’s the only one hitting. Perhaps it was HIM that was the problem and not the Padres, hmmmm?
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
Schadenfreude
is pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others :)
"There is a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot."
---Steven Wright
Keep Hundley at 8th
This is such a small sample size… 5 games. WHY THE ## would we tell everyone to go screw themselves and change everything.
Hundley is looking good, and he is doing well batting 8th. Just let it go. Once people start walking him to face the pitcher, then we can talk about moving him. Until then, let’s be happy we have a player who is doing great, right where he is.
I agree with the top of the lineup and the Will Venable situation. I’m not sure what we want to do there, but we need to do something, and stick with it. We need stability at the top, just like we need stability everywhere (Hundley in the 8th please).
I don’t think Headley should be “spelled” or given a break. Keep him in there 162/year. He is a solid player, offensively and defensively. The only reason Stauffer has been shelled this season is because we have a great infield. WE NEED TO KEEP THAT INTACT EVERY DAY we play. Change Hawpe/Cantu or spell an outfielder (not Maybin) if you want, but don’t touch our players who know how to play defense well.
I don't understand
What’s so wrong with moving Hundley up? Okay, he hasn’t been walked to get to the pitcher YET, but imagine if he came up right now with a guy in scoring position and 2 outs? Wouldn’t you rather avoid that situation while he’s scorching hot than welcome it?
It’s not like you can’t move him back once he goes back to normal.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
ok... so, statistics... let's use them.
Let’s see what the OBP of the various Padres are…
Venable 0.143
Bartlett 0.190
Hudson 0.333
Hawpe 0.133 Cantu 0.300
Ludwick 0.318
Headley 0.381
Maybin 0.211 Denorfia 0.273
Hundley 0.550
So… imagine now that throughout 5 games you had to decide where to put your BEST POWER hitter based on the above OBP…
Well, if you had batted him 3rd/4th/5th, there would NOT have been many guys on base, period. The above numbers show that very clearly.
If you had had him bat 6th, things look a bit better…. 7th, things look better. If you bat him 8th, things still look pretty decent (but not as good as 7th).
So, where did you want him? 4th or 5th you said… eh, since our 3/5/6 hitters seem to get on base the most… that doesn’t make a lot of sense. 7th might make some sense, right after Ludwick and Headley who both get on base at an OK clip. The whole point here is that Hundley is hitting for power right now. We do indeed want him to come up to bat with men on base… it’s just that our 1/2 hitters are not getting on base. Neither is our clean up hitter.
The moral of this story is either you agree with the idea that statistics after FIVE games are meaningful, and thus we want to keep Hundley in the bottom third of our line up, OR
You think statistics after FIVE games are not particularly meaningful and you are willing to give things some more time.
Also, don’t forget that by having Hundley in the 8th spot it is VERY easy to pinch hit for the pitcher’s position if he does get on and the game is close. We can pinch hit with a lefty or a righty.
First off, that logic is ridiculous. I also said to move Venable down, so the lineup would actually be more like…
Bartlett
Hudson
Headley
Hundley
Ludwick
Cantu
Venable
Maybin
In that situation, our two best OBP guys thusfar are sitting in front of Hundley. Also, who determines power by OBP? That’s absurd.
The moral of this story is either you agree with the idea that statistics after FIVE games are meaningful, and thus we want to keep Hundley in the bottom third of our line up, OR
You think statistics after FIVE games are not particularly meaningful and you are willing to give things some more time.
There is no moral and there is no story, but I digress. I think that riding the hot hand is necessary in a lineup that has no real world-beaters. Hundley is the hot hand, and batting him 8th is the opposite of “riding him”.
Also, don’t forget that by having Hundley in the 8th spot it is VERY easy to pinch hit for the pitcher’s position if he does get on and the game is close. We can pinch hit with a lefty or a righty.
With this logic, the best hitter should ALWAYS hit 8th….because, you know, those pinch hitters are way better hitters than the guys that actually get to play every day. Having Hawpe or Denorfia getting up once a game with Hundley on is way better than having Ludwick get up multiple times a game with Hundley on. How could I have missed that?
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
You completely missed my point
Hundley has the best SLG of all of our players. I list OBP to illustrate how one would determine where to place our best power hitter.
Second, the “hot hand” is BS. That is my entire point. Your line up is marginally better… but only based on 5 games. You place a guy with a .190 OBP as our lead off hitter…. again, based on 5 games.
So yeah…. my logic is ridiculous, but your lead off hitter with a .190 OBP is brilliant.
My logic is pretty simple, let’s keep things how they are based on how players are capable of performing based on years of playing baseball, and not based on 5 games.
Hundley will be (I hope) a fine player this year, but why mess with a good thing? He has been great in the 8 spot. We have seen time and again that when you move players into different positions, they produce differently. The Padres leadoff hitters last year is a perfect example of this.
Anyways, if you don’t understand my point on pinch hitting, I am not going to spell it out for you. It’s not the crux of my argument, but rather a mitigating point as to why hitting before the pitcher is not a completely hopeless position.
Actually, you should look at the statistical analyses about where different players should bat in the line up, if you really want to understand lineup dynamics and criticize my logic.
Anyways, my main point was this: Stop thinking you know more than Hoyer, Black, and everyone else in the Padres organization. They know what they’re doing and our team is doing fine. If you want to criticize individual decisions during a game, go for it. I think we all do based upon what we know about a situation and decisions having to be made on the fly. However, if you are going to be doing this every week, “analyzing” who should bat where,…. it’s going to be a long year. What you are doing (after five games, in which we are 3-2) is like saying… “Heath blew two saves last week, and gained a loss in a third game that was tied. He should never close again. Adams has been awesome lately. He should be our closer.”
Anyways, let’s go Padres!
Yes
Brad Hawpe and Heath Bell are the same.
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
To be fair
Hundley hit .439/.465/.756 in 41 AB during Spring Training, which isn’t completely worthless data.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Apr 8, 2011 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions
John Dewan's Slugging Percentage Indicator
Didn’t it predict break-out seasons at, like, a 60% clip?
I have a screaming baby to deal with, so I’ll let someone else look it up…
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Apr 8, 2011 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions
So to recap this enlightening discussion
Hundley hit .439/.465/.756 in 41 AB during Spring Training, which isn’t completely worthless data.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Apr 8, 2011 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Still pretty worthless.
41 AB is a tiny sample when the games actually matter.
Bolts from the Blue // "I eat cereal out of a giant novelty wine glass because it makes me feel fancy." - Britney Wade
Bloody Elbow // "Everybody underestimates the kick in the groin." - Bas Rutten
if there is one thing you can count on
Buddy will be shuffling the linwp often
"There is a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot."
---Steven Wright
Hawpe really does look out of sorts.
Even his glove work at first is awkward. I don’t think he’s even done a stretch when there’s a play at first. He’s a squatter.
his defense has been terrible
If I were ClayDick, I would’ve strangled him for mangling the toss over to first in StL (in what was a close game at the time).
Bolts from the Blue - Destroying your opinions with facts.
I remember that one.
He thought he might run the 12 feet or so before realizing that would be a poor decision, then threw behind Clay.
Cantu has made a couple sweet plays on the line.
And he catches the ball with some of that Latin flare. I like that.
Everything is better with Latin flare.
That is for sure. We do seem to be missing some eccentricity since Hairston Jr. is gone. No one entered the batters box with more flamboyancy.
"We fight, we claw, we hang around. We find a way to do it." - Cam Maybin
Call up
Rizzo, Castro, Decker, Kelly
"Get your hopes up. That's what hopes are for by the way, to get up. You don't get your hopes down, you get your hopes up." -Jeffrey Tambor
Fascinating stuff, Ello.
Bolts from the Blue // "I eat cereal out of a giant novelty wine glass because it makes me feel fancy." - Britney Wade
Bloody Elbow // "Everybody underestimates the kick in the groin." - Bas Rutten
by Richard Wade on Apr 8, 2011 9:10 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
3% of the season is in the books.
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
These aren't bad suggestions.
Venable is not a leadoff hitter, and Hundley should not be hitting 8th. As for the first base conundrum, I don’t know enough to say where the best place is for Hawpe.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 8, 2011 1:00 PM PDT reply actions
With regards to Hawpe, I'd consider 1B his job to lose for the time being
I thought Cantu was going to be the super sub, giving Savior, O-Dawg and Hawpe the occasional day off. However, if Cantu has the hot bat, Brad should start getting phased out in favor of Snidely Whiplash.
I’m interested in seeing who Bud fields today. I’d like to think that Venable can handle facing Lilly.
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
Venable's in
Venable 9, Bartlett 6, Hudson 4, Cantu 3, Ludwick 7, Headley 5, Maybin 8, Hundley 2, Richard 1.
Hopefully he doesn’t sit too often. The problem with putting a guy like Denorfia on Buddy’s bench is he’ll use him way too much.
by Antonio Olivares on Apr 8, 2011 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, it's unfortunate
He’s all-effort, but he is a defensive liability :-/
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
Yeah he should only be playing LF and RF... his CF is lame.
"We fight, we claw, we hang around. We find a way to do it." - Cam Maybin
I'd like to see a regular lineup of
Bartlett
Hudson
Headley
Ludwick
Venable
Cantu/Hawpe platoon
Hundley
Maybin
If Bartlett continues to struggle move him to 8th, let Headley lead off and everyone else shift up a spot.
If Hundley is still hitting well at the end of the month consider moving him up, but the first week has little predictive value.
by Antonio Olivares on Apr 8, 2011 6:31 PM PDT reply actions
Maybe try Hudson at lead-off and Venable bat second?
Headley put some muscle on in the off-season and I think he might be better suited batting lower in the order, if not for the potential power then for putting someone on with faster wheels.
Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...
I just think OBP is more important than speed at the top of the order
Ideally you would have a guy that could combine both OBP and speed, but that doesn’t seem to be happening this year.
Hopefully Bartlett and Hudson will have .340ish OBP’s. I’d be happy with that at the top of the order.
I think Venable is better suited somewhere in the middle of the order 4-5-6. He’s got good power, but strikes out too much to sustain a high OBP. It’s a new year though, maybe he can cut down on those strike outs and take a step forward.
by Antonio Olivares on Apr 8, 2011 8:15 PM PDT reply actions
Linwup of teh gawds
Hudson
Bartlett
Headley
Ludwick
Cantu/Hawpe
Hundley
Venable
Maybin
that’s what i would go with for now until we figure out what kind of a hitter Cant/Hawpe/Maybin are. Ideally we could move on to something like this later in the season:
Venable
Hudson
Ludwick
Headley
Hawpe/Cantu
Hundley
Maybin
Bartlett
I don't know what their approach is
but from what I saw the past few games is that we’re taking too many good pitches, especially with a strike already on the batter. I think it was Hundley who took a 1-1 pitch last night right down the fcuking middle, then whiffed at a Lilly curveball in the dirt on the next pitch. The same thing happened to Chase as well.
Lincecum was pounding the zone with fastballs, but all we could do was take a pitch to fall behind and have Tim dictate the at-bat to the Padres hitters.
I think being a little more aggressive, especially in the early count, is going to be beneficial to some of these struggling hitters.
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