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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Mat Latos trade is 81% Fresh

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 20:  Starting pitcher Mat Latos #38 of the San Diego Padres works the second inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 20, 2011 in Denver, Colorado.  (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

Almost everyone agrees that the Padres got the better end of this deal, but the move helped both clubs.

Apologies to RottenTomatoes.com

81_fresh_medium

Here's what the media and bloggers think of the trade:

Fresh_medium

Quick Thoughts on Latos to the Reds - Beyond the Box Score
Overall, I think this is a great move for both clubs--both were able to fill a big need with a young, club-controlled player. Alonso is a big chip, but if you are going to use it getting a young anchor for your rotation isn't too shabby.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @tomkrasovic
American League scout tells me: #Padres just killed #Reds in that deal. We shall see. Usually, Padres fare well when trading MLB pitchers

Fresh_medium

Mat Latos Padres/Reds Trade Reaction with Jeff Erickson
The trade marriage was perfect and now Latos is the man upon whom the Reds will pin their hopes, while Byrnes quietly racks up a huge haul and takes it to the cashier’s window.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @Mudcat55
Balsley+Volquez=WINNER

Fresh_medium

Padres trade Latos to Reds in multi-player deal - MLB - Tim Brown -Yahoo! Sports
While Latos should give the Reds immediate help, the Padres appear to have gotten the better end of the deal

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @JonHeymanCBS
baseball people checking in. so far all agree padres gm josh byrnes made great deal for latos.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @aaronboone_espn
@1st glance looks like Padres did really well. Reds banking on Latos being an ace.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @Buster_ESPN
First instinct on Latos deal: No way SD trades him if they thought he was really good. Acute fly ball pitcher, high emotions headed to CIN.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @Buster_ESPN
First rival evaluator I spoke with LOVES the trade for the Padres: "San Diego made an absolute killing with that deal."

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @Buster_ESPN
E-mail from second rival evaluator (and don't kill the messenger): "Overall big win for Padres and huge gamble for Reds."

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @Buster_ESPN
Observation of third rival evaluator: "The only way I'm making that trade for Latos is if he has [perfect] mound makeup. And he doesn't."

Fresh_medium

Reds Unload for Mat Latos " MLB Dirt
The Padres really got a nice haul for Latos and I love the deal for them. They picked up some good young players that fit nicely for their team. For the Reds, they are looking good to make a run at the NL Central.

Rotten_mediumTwitter / @sdutSullivan
On first blush, I don't like the Padres giving up on Mat Latos, but I know he was exasperating.

Fresh_medium

Prospects in the Mat Latos Trade - Minor League Ball
The Padres add depth to an already-strong farm system, and all three prospects involved are either ready (Alonso) or almost ready (Boxberger, Grandal) to contribute. If these three guys develop to their maximum potential, the Padres will get the better of this trade in the long run.

Rotten_mediumTwitter / @sdutCanepa
The Padres big box office attraction next season will be Randy Jones Barbecue.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @dereknbcsd
Josh Byrnes, welcome to the party! Trades Mat Latos to the Reds for Edinson Volquez and 3 of Cincy's top 10 prospects. Huge steal!!

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @JimBowdenESPNxm
The most lopsided trade I've witnessed in recent memory as the Padres swindle the Reds in the 5-player trade that lands Mat Latos in Cinci

Fresh_medium

Mat Latos traded to Reds for four players - Call to the Pen
The Padres did receive more value in this trade, but the Reds really needed a starter and only had use for Grandal and Boxberger out of the four players who they traded.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @PadresProspects
#Padres struck while the iron is hot. Received the best haul of any trade this offseason. They need as much talent as possible.

Rotten_mediumOMG Mat Latos - Red Reporter
What they gave up: Grandal is a nice talent to give up, but the rest were in my opinion fairly marginal prospects. Boxberger's a relief pitcher, so whatever. Volquez is now someone else's problem, and Alonso is a low defense, low/moderate power 1B. Obviously the Padres (and a lot of other people) disagree with me, or they wouldn't have given up Latos.

Fresh_medium

Padres Get Short And Long-Term Help For Latos | FanGraphs Baseball
Byrnes managed to get a nice combination of short-term production and long-term value by trading Latos, and he should be applauded for being open-minded enough to take an upgrade over Rizzo if it meant getting the most talent possible.

Rotten_mediumMLB - Mat Latos is a good addition for Cincinnati Reds - Keith Law - ESPN
The Cincinnati Reds give up a lot of future value, but nearly all of it surplus value for their own club, in exchange for a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter. The San Diego Padres swap quality for quantity in a building move that helps them but doesn't entirely add up for me.

Fresh_medium

Cincinnati Reds made shrewd move in Matt Latos MLB trade -Ken Rosenthal | FOX Sports on MSN
Good trade for the Pads. Good trade for the Reds.

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @jonmorosi
#Padres made an excellent trade.

Rotten_mediumTwitter / @friarhood
losing four years of a #1 starter for a couple average hitters is winning?

Fresh_medium

Twitter / @ScottMCBSSports
Early react to Padres/Reds: SD got great haul in Alonso and 3 others. Latos had ongoing maturity issues. Signs they always will be there.

Poll
Was Mat Latos trade fresh or rotten?
Fresh
321 votes
Rotten
86 votes

407 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 137 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Good article on FanGraphs if you wanna add it

Fangraphs

Fire Bud Black.
Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser. -- Vince Lombardi

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 17, 2011 4:15 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

thanks

Added a few more links. Now 81% Fresh

by jbox on Dec 17, 2011 4:41 PM PST up reply actions  

Keith Law

Latos a good addition for Reds

On the very next play Venable soiled the sheets again

by strummer on Dec 17, 2011 5:01 PM PST up reply actions  

My mistake

thanks

On the very next play Venable soiled the sheets again

by strummer on Dec 17, 2011 5:19 PM PST up reply actions  

I know we got quite the haul, but I'm really sad

We keep losing players whose jersey I would potentially buy.

I don’t know if there’s anyone left on this team who I can say that about.

LDE FIlms

by All Things SD on Dec 17, 2011 4:34 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Probably a good trade...

but I still voted rotten because it won’t matter who we get or how good they are if they end up being further trade bait. Feels like an endless cycle of prospects after prospects… and the ones that pan out are promptly packaged and shipped out for more prospects. Doesn’t matter if it’s the best trade in the world if these guys will never spend significant time with the big league club.

My mustachioed sperm donor is dead to me and I’m dead to the dumpster he sprayed his gravy in. - TTG

by theodore donald kerabatsos on Dec 17, 2011 4:37 PM PST reply actions   4 recs

Perpetual rebuilding

We get 3 years into a 5-year rebuilding plan, and then start over with a new 5-year plan. in 2-3 years, the whole process is repeated again.

On the very next play Venable soiled the sheets again

by strummer on Dec 17, 2011 4:47 PM PST up reply actions  

It's not a start over though.

Every single move they’ve made is clearly targeted towards a window starting in 2013. Everything.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 17, 2011 5:52 PM PST up reply actions  

That's encouraging...

until you remember the Peavy trade and how everything was supposed to culminate with a bunch of prospects coming up in 2011 or 2012. They were going to build the team around guys like Dykstra, Latos, Antonelli, Cumberland, Luebke, and Tate — and the hope (at least amongst the fans) was that these guys would form a great supporting cast around Adrian, the team would be winning, and we’d keep Adrian and have a competitive club. What happened there? Same thing that seems to have been happening over and over. Too many prospects ended up being not as good as advertised. The team shit the bed and all of the good pieces were traded away.

I’m not saying this to be a pessimist, I’m just trying to be realistic. I’m done with getting excited about prospects until they (a) perform well at the major league level and (b) actually play for the big league club for multiple years.

My mustachioed sperm donor is dead to me and I’m dead to the dumpster he sprayed his gravy in. - TTG

by theodore donald kerabatsos on Dec 17, 2011 6:30 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

To clarify

I’m not saying I don’t think these prospects will not be good, nor do I think the team will not be good in 2013. I’m just taking a wait and see attitude rather than the hopeful/completely-bought-in attitude I’ve had over past several years.

My mustachioed sperm donor is dead to me and I’m dead to the dumpster he sprayed his gravy in. - TTG

by theodore donald kerabatsos on Dec 17, 2011 6:34 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

I never felt that 2011-12 was the target.

The Peavy deal was a salary dump, and it was amazing that KT got back anything of value. Tate was never going to be ready until 2014ish at the earliest. Luebke has already helped the big league club and looks to be a key piece going forward.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 17, 2011 6:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Luebke will only be arbitration eligible in 2014.

Without any sort of extension, he’ll hit free agency in 2017.

by Rich Garcia's defective eyes on Dec 17, 2011 9:25 PM PST up reply actions  

and you have to remember, he's not adrian

if the padres W/L record is anything like the talent level currently in the minors leub isn’t going to have a ton of incentive to leave petco unless he’s getting sabathia money.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 17, 2011 9:42 PM PST up reply actions  

how about

we have several talented pitchers but our offense sucks. deal from a position of strength to construct a balanced roster.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 12:48 AM PST up reply actions  

I understand that.

This is probably going to turn out to be a great move, but it feels rotten right now. Latos was homegrown and one of the few remaining major players from our last feel good season. Also, he has proven ability at the major league level and I felt like he was our only hope of ever tossing a no-hitter.

by SeeAnFrockOh on Dec 18, 2011 9:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Man... Your spirit is broken...

If there’s one thing that’s just weird, it’s the fact that we haven’t had a no-hitter yet considering the pitching talent that the Padres have had. Mat Latos is one in a long line of good pitchers the Padres have had.

The cycle though… All hope for that goes out the window once they trade Will Venable.

by Dex on Dec 18, 2011 11:04 AM PST up reply actions   3 recs

When was Latos arbitration eligible?

All I know is he wasn’t going to be a free agent after this season. Why expect Luebke to be any different?

by Ualtar on Dec 18, 2011 7:55 AM PST up reply actions  

Because they're completely different situations.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 18, 2011 8:14 AM PST up reply actions  

I feel like the target was 2012-2013

Now, I feel like 2013 is optimistic and 2014-2015 would be more realistic…
but that is a long time away and requires a lot of prospect maturation.

by Zen Blade on Dec 18, 2011 3:20 AM PST up reply actions  

look at it this way

for 2012 we’ve got maybin, hundley, headley, alonso, and one of guzman/blanks/rizzo (assuming we don’t bring anymore close-to-production guys), along with a (still) decent starting rotation and a bullpen that’s already coming together. some starting rotation and bullpen help is definitely on its way by midseason. even without latos and bell, there’s no way this team is worse than the 71 win team in 2011.

by 2013 you have erlin and weiland penciled in the rotation, maybe castro and kelly if they can up their stock. gyorko and decker will be more than ML ready by 2013. hundley/grandal could be a serious strength for the club behind the dish and with the bat.

i think the 2012 team comes closer to .500 than last year, but won’t compete unless they get hot and/or get some serious contributions from the youngsters. 2013 will be a year when you expect to field a winning team that can make a run if they peak at the right time coughgiantscough. by 2014-15 you hope to be at a place when you have a talented core at the big league level and a system that is always bringing in new young players to pick up the slack when the older ones leave.

IMO the team will be interesting in 2012, and it will get better from there.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 4:08 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm not as optimistic with the rotation

Kelly and Castro were both looking to be stud-like in 2013… now, most people hardly mention Castro when talking about top Padres prospects and Kelly doesn’t seem so special.

I don’t see a stud #1 yet. One of these guys (or two) could always develop into such a starter, but I just don’t see it.

Based on the Padres in the playoffs, you need elite players. That was always the big thing missing in the 2000’s. We never seemed to have that elite player who was going to get us to the World Series (or win a World Series). We all knew Peavy performed pooooooorly in high pressure situations, and we didn’t have anyone else who was fearsome.

After seeing Latos smack down the Giants multiple times in 2010, he really looked to me like someone who could be that elite #1.

Now, we are told to wait a few years and see if this new GM’s plan works…

by Zen Blade on Dec 18, 2011 5:37 AM PST up reply actions  

Also

Those early Petco teams were not great teams. Barely got by weak divisions to pad a resume.

by Dex on Dec 18, 2011 6:48 AM PST up reply actions  

The 2006-07 teams were pretty good.

As was the division those years.

A pirate I was meant to be!
"You say you're nasty pirates,
scheming, thieving, bad bushwackers?
From what I've seen I tell you
You're not pirates, you're just slackers!"

by Zach (maestro876) on Dec 18, 2011 8:15 AM PST up reply actions  

I agree we don't seem to have a stud #1 on the farm yet

But Latos was not drafted to be a stud #1 and yet still grew into (or may be growing into) one. Just as you never know which prospects will wash out, you sometimes don’t know which ones will surprise you, either. I also think ace pitchers are great but you can get the same result by having 2-through-5 pitchers that are better than everyone else’s 2-through-5. As you work through 162 games, you will win. It’d be nice to have a clear ace, we’ll see.

Ordo fratum magnus

by gkmandigo on Dec 18, 2011 8:12 PM PST up reply actions  

its not necessarily about the 162 games

as soon as you hit the postseason the #4 and 5 spots are basically meaningless and its all about your frontline starters, specifically your #1. no team gets to the world series without bonafide top of the rotation guys or a #2/3 talent guy pitching out of his mind like buehrle or beckett did.

look at the padres team in ‘98 vs. 2006 padres. you want guys like kevin brown who’s lights out all year long and hitchcock who somehow manages to pitch like an ace every postseason. look at who you’re going to face in the playoffs: the giants, phillies, braves, brewers, etc.

having solid 2-5 guys is great until you’re trotting dustin moseley out there against roy halladay in a must-win game.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 9:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Hate that we lost Latos

And at first glance I felt we got fleeced, but after reading up on the guys we got I now feel we got the better side of this trade. It not only gives us a better shot at doing something this year alone, but it also gives us a few more options for dealing other guys to improve our position even further. For me alot of it will hinge on which Volquez ends up pitching for us.

by athletics68 on Dec 17, 2011 5:40 PM PST reply actions  

Four?

I count 3, Rizzo (who will spend a whole year in AAA this year developing if we keep him because he’s proven he’s not MLB ready yet), Alonso (who is MLB ready and our likely opening day starter), and Jesus (who is a backup/utility type guy anyway and will be in a 1B and LF all year as needed). Who is the 4th?

by athletics68 on Dec 17, 2011 6:11 PM PST up reply actions  

Blanks/Kotsay as one 1B

Why ask a failed romance to come watch your successful one? You know, that's like inviting the Seattle Mariners to a World Series game. It's just weird for everyone.

by Friar Fever on Dec 17, 2011 6:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Blanks is not a 1B, he's a part time outfielder and waste of a roster spot.

And Kotsay is another utility guy hired more for his ability to be a vet on the team than anything else.

by athletics68 on Dec 17, 2011 6:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Kotsay is probably the bigger waste

Blanks…..I feel like this year will be where we know whether to keep him or get rid of him.

by TheFan09 on Dec 17, 2011 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

agree

thats why I think its more likely he’s traded.

then again wha the hell do I know. i thought no chance in hell Latos was tradedthis year.

Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981

by Nater Tater on Dec 18, 2011 2:10 AM PST up reply actions  

If

y’all swing Rizzo, Blanks, or Alonso for a good piece, I think this will be a win for the Padres.

I think the underrated piece in this trade is Volquez. I talk it about it here

Volquez may be an underrated piece in this trade. He’s under control for two more seasons, and due to a “dismal” season last year, Volquez shouldn’t cost too much. I put the word “dismal” in quotes because last year Volquez had a 4.08 xFIP compared to an ERA of 5.71. Two seasons ago he put up an xFIP of 3.75. It’s quite possible that Petco could allow Volquez next year to have a good half-season with an ERA in the mid 3’s and the Padres could take advantage of that and swap him at the trade deadline.

I think y’all will be back to competing in the NL West here in the next few years, and competing consistently.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 17, 2011 5:57 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Maybe in Cincy

Latos can earn enough to buy another ‘t’ for his name.

Volquez is a punk

Don't hate the game, hate the nerds!

by thenerdhater on Dec 17, 2011 6:20 PM PST reply actions  

I was expecting a more jubilant mood

when I came here, but now I see that I’ve underestimated the toll that constantly shipping away favorites for prospects has taken on the average Padre fan (at least at GLB).

That being said, no matter how you slice it this was an absolute haul for Latos. Alonso, Grandal and Boxberger (in that order) are consistently ranked in the top #15 of the Reds system (Alonso generally ending up in the top #2-5 range, Grandal #5-8 range, Boxberger #12-15). Volquez is a project, no doubt, but not one without hope or promise. If anything he should do better merely from the stadium switch.

Depth is never a bad thing to accumulate…but one of the 1B will definately be flipped for something else. Interested to see what the next move is.

by Omerta on Dec 17, 2011 8:15 PM PST reply actions  

BA ranked them all top 10

alonso and grandal were 3 and 4 respecitvely

by iheartyourfart on Dec 17, 2011 8:26 PM PST up reply actions  

Not sure why you would expect a jubilant mood

Even with that haul we just lost our best pitcher and the most exciting guy we had left.

by athletics68 on Dec 17, 2011 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

should read

Only exciting guy we had left.

by Ualtar on Dec 18, 2011 7:56 AM PST up reply actions  

true

However, a lot of what makes him exciting is getting on base and having the opportunity to steal bases and run fast. Without anybody behind him to hit he loses some of those opportunities. Also close games make the running game work. If the Padres have poor pitching and are not in these games then who cares if Maybin can steal a base, or makes a great catch that keeps the game 6-1 instead of 8-1.

Basically, I would not pay 50 bucks for me and my sons to go to Petco to watch Maybin. He isn’t enough to make the team fun.

by Ualtar on Dec 18, 2011 8:10 AM PST up reply actions  

3 sons, me, and usually my dad. Trolley for me and dad on weekends. close to 50

by Ualtar on Dec 19, 2011 7:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Do you have nine sons?

Because $5 is all it takes to get you into Petco Park for a game.

by jodes0405 on Dec 18, 2011 1:44 PM PST up reply actions  

You're a poor college student

Like most people want to have a chair that they can sit in and be able to see the game from.

by Dex on Dec 19, 2011 11:13 AM PST up reply actions  

I sit in a chair at every game.

More often than not it’s in field level. You just gotta be sneaky like a pig.

by jodes0405 on Dec 19, 2011 11:37 AM PST up reply actions  

And not have kids

Because when you have little kids and you’re sneaking into seats and get caught, people think you’re a bad parent and give you Looks.

by Dex on Dec 19, 2011 12:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Agreed

Solid return for the Padres. Volquez could rebound and be swapped at the deadline and the Padres have either the best or 2nd best farm system now without a doubt.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 18, 2011 1:11 PM PST up reply actions  

lol of course

the UT writers are the ones that disliked this trade

by iheartyourfart on Dec 17, 2011 8:26 PM PST reply actions  

of course

Fire Bud Black.
Show me a good loser, and I'll show you a loser. -- Vince Lombardi

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Dec 17, 2011 10:37 PM PST up reply actions  

They do HAVE to go to these games and report on them.

by Ualtar on Dec 18, 2011 8:48 AM PST up reply actions  

Reds fan here

I’m thrilled the Reds got Latos…..needed a top-of-the-rotation hammer, and they got one at a cheap salary….Still a good trade for the Padres, though, as the Reds gave up a lot, but they also traded from depth.

Alonso: Nice hitter, but blocked by Votto….also bad defensively, even at 1B. Petco will sap power numbers….20 HRs tops in that ballpark.

Grandal: Good hitting prospect but defense has been shaky. Another guy blocked, as Reds have Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan.

Boxberger: Good relief prospect….I think Reds will miss him the most….Jocketty made it sound like he was key to deal.

Volquez: I hate him….total headcase. Very frustrating to watch. That said, if he gets his head screwed on straight he could be good….and Petco can help mask his crappiness.

Overall, its a win/win for both teams.

"There's only one god, and his name is Death. And what do we say to Death? Not today!" --- Syrio Forel, Game of Thrones

by cesarhernandez on Dec 17, 2011 8:29 PM PST reply actions  

20 HRs tops in that ballpark.

So, like fifty-some total? Niiiice.

www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev

by TheThinGwynn on Dec 18, 2011 11:35 AM PST up reply actions  

I'm sorry,

but I don’t understand why people were voting “fresh” for this trade.

by owllover711 on Dec 17, 2011 9:36 PM PST reply actions  

we traded one talented player

for four. two that can help us immediately.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 17, 2011 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

projected rotation

opening day:

stauffer – luebke – volquez – and depending on health and ST performance Richard, Moseley and Bass will take the 4, 5, and swingman spots.

august/september:

stauffer – leubke – richard/moze/bass – erlin/weiland/castro

by iheartyourfart on Dec 17, 2011 10:05 PM PST up reply actions  

OK, I'm embarrassed.

I totally forgot about Richard. My bad.

I’m not familiar with the guys you named for August/September. Looks like I have some studying to do.

(I still have my doubts about all this. Indulge me?)

by owllover711 on Dec 17, 2011 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

And when I say I don't know the August/September guys,

I really mean the ones besides Luebke-Richard-Stauffer-Bass.

by owllover711 on Dec 17, 2011 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland are the two minor league pitchers we got when we traded Mike Adams to the Rangers.

They join Casey Kelly (who we got for Adrian) and Keyvius Sampson to form the next wave of Padre pitchers. You can read a little about them by clicking here

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 17, 2011 11:24 PM PST up reply actions  

and thats assuming no other trades

Or signings.

And I hope Castro has a comeback year too…

by SD Jake on Dec 17, 2011 10:16 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

rumors circling that Rizzo

could be used to land Matt Garza. I’d be down with this move and back on board. I guess I need to follow my own advice and wait till the dust truly settles before making judgements on the movement this winter.

Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981

by Nater Tater on Dec 18, 2011 2:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Two words

No way.
MIDDLE INFIELD.

That’s what we need.
And Garza is 1-2 years away from free agency. Not exactly sure.

by Zen Blade on Dec 18, 2011 3:25 AM PST up reply actions  

cubs don't have the pieces

for middle infield it would have to be either the rays or rangers for hak-ju lee or jurickson profar and rizzo probably won’t be enough on his own to land either of them. maybe throw in a lower level arm like mikolas?

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 3:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Well...unless they throw in Starlin Castro...

Which would be pretty cool…

Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...

by sdchicken on Dec 18, 2011 8:00 AM PST up reply actions  

That would be awesome but won't happen

Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts

by mrbarneydangles on Dec 18, 2011 7:09 PM PST up reply actions  

i'd have my doubts about that actually happening

but it would smash the haters. at that point you’d basically have traded latos, and rizzo for what is essentially an entire core of players

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 3:27 AM PST up reply actions  

padres have gone from rebuilding to

super rebuilding.

out: a potential ace, an all star first baseman who wanted to leave, and some good relievers

in: kelly, erlin, weiland, alonso, grandal, boxberger, volquez, fuentes, maybin.

with the exception of volquez who’s already somewhat established those guys are probably the biggest influx of young talent this org has ever seen. and byrnes doesn’t look done at all. hoyer was mostly about getting very young players with high upsides in the long term, but byrnes has mostly gone after guys who are close to contributing at the major league level.

consider the fact that we now more or less have 4 guys jockeying for he 1b/LF spot , you have to figure that 1 or 2 are expendable in order to get a targeted acquisition (probably RF, MI, or a starter with big upside). you can probably add another young player or two to that list (which is why i left rizzo off).

what i’m impressed with about byrnes is not only that he is obviously willing to make gutsy moves when the iron is hot, but that he’s simultaneously building for the near future and the long-term future.

i’ve never seen a team re-tool so comprehensively, bringing in so much talent, so inexpensively. We gave up two main guys (one we didn’t really have any choice in moving), and a few good complimentary pieces and brought in potentially an entire new team of young, exciting players that fit in with a team strategy that should allow us to compete consistently into the future.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 3:47 AM PST reply actions  

Yes, my heart is sore, but most of the rest of me is excited

A few of things to add:

*We’re desperate for a shortstop, so I could see that being the next move.

*At the same time, Rizzo is down in value at the moment, so I can also see him being kept for most of, if not all of, next season with the aim of letting his stock rise again before trading him.

*Byrnes sure seems keen to ensure the bullpen will be ok, and also to have it stocked to the point of being able to to keep the production line of tradeable relievers going.

*What does this do to the 40 player roster?

queen of the rec fairies
although it broke our hearts it did not break our will the herd

by Aussie fan on Dec 18, 2011 6:24 AM PST up reply actions  

we do need a SS

Maybe Cumberland can be a feel good comeback, but even then he really is a 2b/3b and not a SS.

Bartlet is not a bad option at SS he is just not a stud, but he probably won’t be here in 2013.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Dec 18, 2011 11:22 AM PST up reply actions  

unfortunately

cabrera is the best in our system right now of all players that are less than a year or two away. i think he can be decent, and josh seems to like him, but we all know he’s not a sure thing.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

He can be a decent 8th hole hitter

unfortunately not everyone can have an All-star offensively minded SS on their team. But given cabrera’s speed, little-bit of pop, and natural athleticism, he can be a contributing MLB SS. He just needs to be way more consistent with the glove and cut down on his strikeouts.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Dec 18, 2011 3:08 PM PST up reply actions  

he did both of those in AAA

here’s his k% by year and team:

’08 (high-A, rockies) – 18.4%
’09 padres – 20.1%
’10 padres – 22.4%
’11 AAA tucson – 14.4%

his fielding percentage was still just .950 though. despite his arm he might be better at 2b. he has the tools to be a great defensive SS (lateral quickness, speed, strong arm) but he’s going to have to do a lot to develop.

one caveat that works in his favor though is that tucson is apparently a very tough place to field because of the hard infield

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 4:21 PM PST up reply actions  

I like postive trending

Unfortunately he needs reps, and he is blocked by Bartlett.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Dec 18, 2011 4:37 PM PST up reply actions  

how about a three team deal

cubs get: rizzo, headley, skole

rangers get: garza

padres get: profar, top 10 cubs prospect, maybe a throw in from tex

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 11:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Latos and makeup

Was wondering if you all could answer a question from a Reds fan. It seems like there were several articles in 2010 about Latos’ maturation and improved makeup. Has there been any change to that narrative in 2011? I don’t recall any major blowups but thought you guys might have some special insight. Thanks in advance.

by ken on Dec 18, 2011 7:02 AM PST reply actions  

He struggled through spring training and well into the regular season. They attributed his struggles to trying to be too fine with his pitches instead of just throwing it. With all the unexpected success the Padres had in 2010 they kept him throwing well beyond the point when they had planned to shut him down. He physically wore out toward the end of that season. I think that’s when he started trying to be too fine with his pitches and the psychological impact of not being able to blow it by the hitters seemed to stay with him into the next season. He recovered from those issues in the second half of last season and should have a great year. Even if his personal stats get hammered by your ballpark, I would expect your offense to pick him up and you should win a lot of games when he’s on the mound.

by SeeAnFrockOh on Dec 18, 2011 9:51 AM PST up reply actions  

Latos can flat out pitch

Cincy will love this guy

On the other hand, you have different fingers.

by Hormel on Dec 18, 2011 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm really excited about him

sucks to lose so many prospects, but they weren’t going to help much this year.

Contributing little more than than snark and wittiness to SBN since 2007.

by Yossarian22 on Dec 18, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions  

as a win-now move

i don’t think the reds could have possibly picked up anyone better. he’s the best pitcher to move this offseason.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 4:22 PM PST up reply actions  

You should be

I think this makes the Reds either favorites or almost favorites to win the NL Central.

Brewers moving back, STL moving Back.

I am also a big closet fan of Brandon Phillips….

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Dec 18, 2011 4:39 PM PST up reply actions  

but the pirates are losing ludwick

you have to assume that adds gives them at least 10 or 15 games in the standings

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 5:30 PM PST up reply actions  

It is rare that a small market club can pick up a pitcher like this...

as soon as you watch Latos
effortlessly make batters look like idiots
you will forget about these prospects…no matter how they turn out.

On the other hand, you have different fingers.

by Hormel on Dec 19, 2011 2:37 AM PST up reply actions  

I know

I am looking forward to watching him every 5 days.

Contributing little more than than snark and wittiness to SBN since 2007.

by Yossarian22 on Dec 19, 2011 8:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Know how I know this is a good trade?

Friarhood hates it.

"The only thing I hate more than Raiders fans is Chargers fans." - A Chargers fan

Gaslamp Ball Wiki - All you need to know about Gaslamp Ball, its members, and all the inside jokes
Bolts from the Blue

by creanium on Dec 18, 2011 10:32 AM PST reply actions   3 recs

No more Team Latos shirts

I am joshing you Steve. ;)

by Dex on Dec 18, 2011 11:05 AM PST up reply actions   1 recs

clubhouse source -

Latos will not be missed by anyone.

Oh internet, what a wicked web you weave.

by Mad_Villain on Dec 18, 2011 11:21 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

Source: Cameron Maybin

Reason: Constant Taunting with Panda Express

“I can’t wait until this guy gets traded to the Reds. He will be missed by NO ONE!”

Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...

by sdchicken on Dec 18, 2011 4:53 PM PST up reply actions   3 recs

it took me years

To convert my wife (a native chicagoan) from a white sox fan to a Pads fan. But I did it. She loved the Padres, she was the one who bought a season ticket package for us. But after this trade news came out she said she was done with this team and baseball. I don’t blame her. I mean, I get that this was a great trade for us and that we should feel lucky or some shit like that ( you know, just like when you guys said we got some great prospects for adrian). But this cycle sucks. A team that continues trading every recognizable star they have for prospects every year isn’t rebuilding….they’re deconstructing. And they’ve been doing it dice 2008.

"Well, he ought to go home and find somebody else to bang." Jerry Coleman

by cubbuster on Dec 18, 2011 11:30 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

since* not dice....

"Well, he ought to go home and find somebody else to bang." Jerry Coleman

by cubbuster on Dec 18, 2011 11:31 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I sympathize

But don’t forget that in 1993 we traded Gary Sheffield (and Rich Rodriguez) to the Florida Marlins for three players, one of which was Trevor Hoffman. At the time, San Diegans HATED the trade and ripped ownership for sending away a player the fans really liked. I take a wait-and-see stance on all trades. I root for a team, not any single player. Yes, I want to like the guys on the team, but I don’t really know these new guys yet so I’ll give them a chance. I hear Volquez may be a bit of a head case, but Mat was kinda a head case too so maybe we just swapped two personality disorders. I’m looking forward to the new season to see what shakes out.

Ordo fratum magnus

by gkmandigo on Dec 18, 2011 8:34 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

Every star starts out as some sort of prospect.

I think chances are good that your wife’s next fan favorite comes out of this most recent batch of new arrivals.

For me, the most important thing is that they build toward being a consistently competitive (and thus, over-all entertaining) team, and this trade definately gives them a better chance for that, IMO, then holding onto Latos would’ve in the long run.

by Omerta on Dec 18, 2011 10:05 PM PST up reply actions  

I really liked Latos

Always looked forward to him pitching, and being dominant. He did frustrate me at times with some of his on-mound presence and just strange pitch selection. I always felt there was going to a point in the game where he would just go to a different level, or lose it menatality. But that is what you get with a young pitcher.

I felt, and still feel, that if he just puts it together a little more upstairs, mature as we all do, he could be a super dominant ace on any squad. I felt that Darren and Buddy could reach him, and make him the ace this year and for many years to come.

I also felt that I wouldn’t be ‘surprise" if he remained an AJ Burnett for his entire career. A very good pitcher with amazing stuff, but was never consistently dominant. I am not saying that I believe this would happen, that I just wouldn’t be shocked if it did.

Sad to see him go, as my new fear is that Dusty rides him into the ground in the next three years as they try to go the playoffs, and he goes the way of Prior/Woods/Schmidt

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Dec 18, 2011 12:29 PM PST reply actions  

I don't think you have much to worry about as far as your final statement

Since Dusty came to Cincinnati, outside of Harang and Arroyo, he usually doesn’t let his starters go much past 110 pitches. He was very cautious with Leake in 2010 who’s pitch count rarely made it into triple digits.

The biggest blunder Dusty made was using Harang for 4 innings in the long game with you guys in 2008, and then letting him pitch on regular rest. I was nervous when the Reds hired Dusty considering that Cueto and Bailey were both young highly touted pitching prospects at the time, but Dusty has not really been any harder on his starters than other MLB manager.

Contributing little more than than snark and wittiness to SBN since 2007.

by Yossarian22 on Dec 18, 2011 1:14 PM PST up reply actions  

I feel weird about this trade-- it's neither fresh nor rotten

Normally I feel better when I see the haul of prospects we gain in these trades, but I’m really not sold on this one…

Boxberger doesn’t fill a particular need, we have bullpen prospects.

Grandal doesn’t fit the team— an offensively-inclined catcher on a team that emphasizes run prevention.

Alonso might be very good but I’m not going to buy the hype after our last two touted 1B prospects floundered badly.

And Volquez is even more of a headcase than Latos.

However, all of these guys offer us a shot to contend in time, and this team reminds me of the squad that rampaged out of the gate and surprised everybody two years ago. We need middle infield help and the emergence of a consistent bat (Jesus saves!) but it would be very hard to be worse than last year.

Yakety Sax: Making divisional matchups hilarious since 1963.
Gaslamp Ball: SMELLS LIKE PROSPECTS IN HERE

by StrangeBroP25 on Dec 18, 2011 1:25 PM PST reply actions  

keeping the same roster as last year

would be worse
and the only trade bait Josh had was Latos

Volquez will feel the Petco love and thrive
Boxberger will step in when Street leaves
Alonso actually performed at the MLB level, unlike Blanks and Rizzo
Padres always seem to need catchers

On the other hand, you have different fingers.

by Hormel on Dec 18, 2011 2:46 PM PST up reply actions  

mlb teams always seems to need catcher

I know there are a few all-stars out there, but take a look at C’s that have posted 450+ABs in the past decade….yuk

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Dec 18, 2011 3:13 PM PST up reply actions  

two words

Rob Johnson

On the other hand, you have different fingers.

by Hormel on Dec 18, 2011 3:38 PM PST up reply actions  

don't agree with your reasoning here

grandal has decent potential as a defensive catcher. he’s got a very good arm and his footwork has apparently gotten good enough to where he throws out a high % of base stealers. his offensive game could be a plus too. i wouldn’t say he’s ‘offensively-inclined’ like a jesus montero etc. that’s a catcher in name only. besides, a catcher isn’t going “prevent” runs the way a centerfielder or shortstop will. The best thing they can do is call a good game, keep runners honest, and limit passed balls/wild pitches. The best defensive catcher in terms of metrics last season saved his team 5 runs. by comparison brett gardner has saved the yankees about 50 runs the last two years in CF. also catching prospects who can stick at catcher and become even average major league hitters are worth a LOT.

boxelberger is a bullpen arm (with starting experience, though i bet he stays in the bullpen), but i’ve never ever seen a GM who said “we have enough late-inning arms.” remember this team rode to 90 wins largely on the strength of the lockdown bullpen in 2010. if it wasn’t for the trades that brought in box, street, and burns our short term bullpen situation would not look pretty. the inconsistent gregerson and frieri and the unproven brach were the only late inning guys we had penciled in for the next few seasons.

volquez may be crazy, but he isn’t part of our long-term plans. he seems like the classic petco pump and dump. let our staff work their magic on him, refine his mechanics and his approach, and let a team overpay for him at the deadline. most agree that volquez was the “throw-in” to this trade, though he could potentially become quite valuable.

i think alonso and volquez help you out right away, while the other two may make an appearance in the second half of the year and could be contributors on the 2013 squad.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Strictly thinking on a business/baseball level, it's super fresh.

On a personal level, as a fan, it’s as rotten as rotten as they get.

by jodes0405 on Dec 18, 2011 1:54 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

that sums up how i feel

logically , the trade makes sense and probably makes us better. emotionally, i feel i lost a family member.

Scowling at Padres Losses since 1981

by Nater Tater on Dec 19, 2011 9:15 PM PST up reply actions  

Sucks

I dont see why you trade your number 1 for any potential nos. 3 and 4 prospects.
A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.
The Padres are obsessed with the fucking bushes.

by lasers pew pew pew! on Dec 18, 2011 3:03 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Let's see, what's next on the agenda....

Rizzo is certainly trade bait. The best fits would probably be the Cubs or Rangers. I’d prefer to move Rizzo to the Rangers for Mike Olt 3B. Good glove, great arm and 20-25 homer projection. That would make Headley expendable. Don’t get me wrong, good player, but he just can’t hit here. We could flip him for someone like Carlos Quentin and add another 20-25 homer bat to the lineup. ,

And that’s it! I mean, basically. We’d still need to address the middle infield but the team would be good to go next season.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 18, 2011 4:47 PM PST reply actions  

gyorko > olt

they’re not going to acquire another 3b. if anybody other than headley starts the season at 3b it will be darnell, or guzman if they’re willing to completely overlook his defense.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 18, 2011 5:42 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't see Gyorko having the power Olt does.

A lot of scouts and analysts question his athleticism for the position. Most of the people I talk to seem to think he’s more in the mold of someone like Joe Randa. Not spectacular with only moderate power projection. Wheras a guy like Olt has already drawn praise for his excellent defense and strong throwing arm. I see him as a .250/20 homer guy with 100 strikeouts and potential GG defense. I just think Gyorko will max out at around 10-15 homers.

We might already have players, but Olt could be the prototypical power hitting 3rd baseman with GG defense. The upside of trading Rizzo for Olt is that it makes Headley a valuable trade chip we can spin for MI talent.

"When you find your way. Then you see it disappear."

by padmadfan on Dec 18, 2011 11:32 PM PST up reply actions  

gyorko is definitely not a power hitter

but he has raked everywhere he’s gone. regardless of whether you think olt is better than gyorko, i don’t think you take one of your excess 1b and trade them for an excess 3b. gyorko’s ETA is probably september of this season. olt has gotta be a little ways off, so if you plan on using headley as a trade chip you’re better off with gyorko, or you give darnell a shot to hold down the hot corner for a year or so. olt pushes back the clock.

by iheartyourfart on Dec 19, 2011 12:10 AM PST up reply actions  

We already have a major cock-block at 3B

Two very good guys in the minors and Headley in the majors!!!

by Zen Blade on Dec 18, 2011 6:13 PM PST up reply actions  

Too many people are looking at this trade based off the name on the back of the jersey and not the front.

You can tell by fan reaction that there are two main types of Padres fans; 1) those who latch on to particular players and threaten to not come to games or support the team when their favorite (read: only player they recognize) is traded. This type is also called the “Hacksaw” Padres fan. The second type likes the players but also recognizes the name on the front of the jersey is what they’re cheering for and that all players are moving parts with the goal of making the playoffs and ultimately winning the World Series. You just have to ask yourselves, do the ends justify the means?

TBD

by IputtheYinTony on Dec 19, 2011 6:55 AM PST reply actions  

there are way more types of fans...

Like the “I am tired of constant rebuilding” fan…

or the…. “this deal is only done if a GM has a contract with 3+ years remaining”.

Or the… “does ownership actually want to win? Or do they just want to make money?”

by Zen Blade on Dec 19, 2011 10:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Starlin Castro

For rizo, headley, bartlet, and (insert pitching prospect here).

by EC_padsfan on Dec 19, 2011 9:15 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

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