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2011 Padres, Against The Odds

By on Nov 18 2011, 8:47a 2

Here is a look at how the Padres 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Padres games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4676 which translates to an expected win total of 75.76 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Padres game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4842 or 78.44 wins.  The Padres actually went 71-91 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Padres were the largest favorite to win.

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercSD Win PercSim SD Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 09-26-2011 Casey Coleman Mat Latos CHN SD SD 62.756 62.756 61.577 SD 0 2 2
2 06-05-11 Jordan Lyles Mat Latos HOU SD SD 62.049 62.049 60.583 SD 2 7 9
3 05-03-11 Jeff Karstens Mat Latos PIT SD SD 60 60 61.671 SD 5 6 11
4 06-10-11 Jason Marquis Mat Latos WAS SD SD 59.759 59.759 59.388 WAS 2 1 3
5 06-04-11 Aneury Rodriguez Aaron Harang HOU SD SD 59.432 59.432 58.572 SD 3 6 9
6 05-02-11 James McDonald Aaron Harang PIT SD SD 59.1 59.1 63.309 PIT 4 3 7
7 06-29-2011 Bruce Chen Tim Stauffer KC SD SD 58.932 58.932 64.141 SD 1 4 5
8 09-03-11 Alex White Cory Luebke COL SD SD 58.333 58.333 59.25 COL 5 4 9
9 04-16-2011 Mat Latos Neslon Figueroa SD HOU SD 58.071 58.071 58.104 HOU 3 5 8
10 09-04-11 Aaron Cook Mat Latos COL SD SD 57.717 57.717 54.883 SD 2 7 9
11 05-04-11 Kevin Correia Clayton Richard PIT SD SD 57.537 57.537 59.847 PIT 7 4 11
12 08-17-2011 Dillon Gee Mat Latos NYN SD SD 57.356 57.356 61.198 NYN 7 3 10
13 05-06-11 Armando Galarraga Tim Stauffer ARI SD SD 57.173 57.173 63.094 SD 3 4 7
14 08-18-2011 Javier Vazquez Tim Stauffer FLA SD SD 57.173 57.173 55.503 SD 1 3 4
15 06-27-2011 Jeff Francis Mat Latos KC SD SD 56.989 56.989 58.19 SD 3 4 7
16 05-20-2011 Erik Bedard Mat Latos SEA SD SD 56.427 56.427 57.931 SEA 4 1 5
17 08-19-2011 Chris Volstad Wade LeBlanc FLA SD SD 56.427 56.427 56.558 SD 3 4 7
18 08-21-2011 Anibal Sanchez Cory Luebke FLA SD SD 55.457 55.457 58.559 SD 3 4 7
19 07-16-2011 Barry Zito Cory Luebke SF SD SD 55.257 55.257 58.511 SD 3 11 14
20 08-16-2011 John Niese Cory Luebke NYN SD SD 55.257 55.257 55.887 SD 1 6 7
21 08-20-2011 Clay Hensley Aaron Harang FLA SD SD 55.056 55.056 59.4 SD 1 14 15
22 06-03-11 J.A. Happ Dustin Moseley HOU SD SD 54.442 54.442 52.439 SD 1 3 4
23 06-09-11 Livan Hernandez Aaron Harang WAS SD SD 54.233 54.233 55.532 SD 3 7 10
24 07-29-2011 Jason Hammel Tim Stauffer COL SD SD 54.023 54.023 55.597 COL 3 2 5
25 09-20-2011 Mat Latos Jhoulys Chacin SD COL SD 54.023 54.023 42.15 SD 2 1 3
26 08-03-11 Ted Lilly Tim Stauffer LAN SD SD 53.811 53.811 60.144 SD 0 3 3
27 04-10-11 John Ely Aaron Harang LAN SD SD 53.811 53.811 56.713 SD 2 7 9
28 05-08-11 Joe Saunders Aaron Harang ARI SD SD 53.704 53.704 54.226 SD 3 4 7
29 06-28-2011 Felipe Paulino Clayton Richard KC SD SD 53.596 53.596 59.251 SD 2 4 6
30 06-02-11 Bud Norris Tim Stauffer HOU SD SD 53.488 53.488 56.295 HOU 7 4 11
31 06-11-11 John Lannan Clayton Richard WAS SD SD 53.271 53.271 56.959 WAS 2 1 3
32 04-08-11 Ted Lilly Clayton Richard LAN SD SD 52.719 52.719 52.719 LAN 4 2 6
33 04-12-11 Sam LeCure Clayton Richard CIN SD SD 52.494 52.494 54.658 CIN 8 2 10
34 07-26-2011 Joe Saunders Dustin Moseley ARI SD SD 52.494 52.494 56.343 ARI 6 1 7
35 09-16-2011 Wade Miley Tim Stauffer ARI SD SD 52.267 52.267 50.635 SD 0 2 2
36 07-27-2011 Ian Kennedy Cory Luebke ARI SD SD 52.153 52.153 54.837 ARI 4 3 7
37 07-17-2011 Matt Cain Mat Latos SF SD SD 51.923 51.923 52.42 SF 4 3 7
38 04-11-11 Edinson Volquez Mat Latos CIN SD SD 51.456 51.456 56.632 CIN 3 2 5
39 04-20-2011 Aaron Harang James Russell SD CHN SD 51.456 51.456 49.455 SD 5 4 9
40 09-02-11 Kevin Millwood Aaron Harang COL SD SD 51.338 51.338 48.774 COL 3 0 3
41 08-07-11 Mat Latos Kevin Correia SD PIT SD 51.22 51.22 54.809 SD 7 3 10
42 06-12-11 Jordan Zimmerman Tim Stauffer WAS SD SD 51.22 51.22 55.915 WAS 2 0 2
43 08-02-11 Hiroki Kuroda Mat Latos LAN SD SD 51.1 51.1 57.389 LAN 1 0 1
44 07-14-2011 Madison Bumgarner Aaron Harang SF SD SD 51.1 51.1 42.958 SF 6 2 8
45 05-07-11 Daniel Hudson Dustin Moseley ARI SD SD 50.86 50.86 46.476 ARI 6 0 6
46 06-24-2011 Derek Lowe Tim Stauffer ATL SD SD 50.739 50.739 60.098 SD 11 2 13
47 06-06-11 Clay Mortensen Clayton Richard COL SD SD 50.617 50.617 47.299 COL 3 0 3
48 06-26-2011 Tim Hudson Cory Luebke ATL SD SD 50.617 50.617 50.356 SD 1 4 5
49 08-08-11 Tim Stauffer Mike Pelfrey SD NYN SD 50.249 50.249 50.955 NYN 8 9 17
50 04-23-2011 Joe Blanton Tim Stauffer PHI SD SD 50.249 50.249 55.149 PHI 4 2 6
51 07-28-2011 Daniel Hudson Mat Latos ARI SD SD 50.249 50.249 52.228 SD 3 4 7
52 05-19-2011 Chris Narveson Aaron Harang MIL SD MIL 50.249 49.751 47.573 SD 0 1 1
53 08-15-2011 R.A. Dickey Aaron Harang NYN SD NYN 50.249 49.751 52.165 NYN 5 4 9
54 09-23-2011 Ted Lilly Wade LeBlanc LAN SD LAN 50.495 49.505 57.67 LAN 2 0 2
55 09-06-11 Eric Surkamp Wade LeBlanc SF SD SF 50.739 49.261 52.853 SF 6 4 10
56 04-27-2011 Tommy Hanson Mat Latos ATL SD ATL 50.739 49.261 51.211 ATL 7 0 7
57 07-10-11 Tim Stauffer Ted Lilly SD LAN LAN 50.98 49.02 50.465 LAN 1 4 5
58 09-18-2011 Joe Saunders Aaron Harang ARI SD ARI 50.98 49.02 53.07 ARI 5 1 6
59 06-08-11 Aaron Cook Dustin Moseley COL SD COL 51.1 48.9 48.734 COL 5 3 8
60 08-12-11 Mat Latos Bronson Arroyo SD CIN CIN 51.1 48.9 48.277 CIN 3 5 8
61 09-24-2011 Chad Billingsley Aaron Harang LAN SD LAN 51.22 48.78 53.68 SD 0 3 3
62 04-15-2011 Aaron Harang J.A. Happ SD HOU HOU 51.338 48.662 49.47 SD 4 2 6
63 04-21-2011 Roy Oswalt Mat Latos PHI SD PHI 51.338 48.662 51.34 PHI 3 0 3
64 05-29-2011 Dustin Moseley Yunesky Maya SD WAS WAS 51.338 48.662 48.467 SD 5 4 9
65 07-07-11 Cory Luebke Barry Zito SD SF SF 51.807 48.193 46.931 SF 1 2 3
66 04-26-2011 Jair Jurrjens Aaron Harang ATL SD ATL 51.807 48.193 59.593 ATL 8 2 10
67 09-19-2011 Cory Luebke Kevin Millwood SD COL COL 51.923 48.077 49.41 SD 8 2 10
68 04-13-2011 Travis Wood Tim Stauffer CIN SD CIN 52.267 47.733 47.484 SD 2 3 5
69 05-16-2011 Clayton Richard Armando Galarraga SD ARI ARI 52.267 47.733 52.477 SD 8 4 12
70 09-28-2011 Ryan Dempster Wade LeBlanc CHN SD CHN 52.267 47.733 51.677 SD 2 9 11
71 09-05-11 Madison Bumgarner Tim Stauffer SF SD SF 52.494 47.506 44.6 SF 7 2 9
72 04-09-11 Hiroki Kuroda Dustin Moseley LAN SD LAN 52.494 47.506 48.656 LAN 4 0 4
73 04-14-2011 Dustin Moseley Bud Norris SD HOU HOU 52.607 47.393 52.054 HOU 0 1 1
74 08-06-11 Cory Luebke Paul Maholm SD PIT PIT 52.719 47.281 49.882 SD 13 2 15
75 04-17-2011 Clayton Richard Brett Myers SD HOU HOU 53.162 46.838 53.241 SD 8 6 14
76 04-22-2011 Cole Hamels Clayton Richard PHI SD PHI 53.162 46.838 50.382 PHI 2 0 2
77 09-21-2011 Anthony Bass Aaron Cook SD COL COL 53.162 46.838 42.24 SD 4 0 4
78 05-31-2011 Mat Latos Mike Minor SD ATL ATL 53.38 46.62 48.007 SD 5 4 9
79 07-03-11 Mat Latos Matt Beaven SD SEA SEA 53.596 46.404 44.889 SEA 1 3 4
80 05-25-2011 Chris Carpenter Mat Latos STL SD STL 53.596 46.404 46.615 SD 1 3 4
81 05-21-2011 Michael Pineda Clayton Richard SEA SD SEA 53.704 46.296 49.677 SEA 4 0 4
82 04-29-2011 Clayton Richard Ted Lilly SD LAN LAN 53.811 46.189 53.996 LAN 2 3 5
83 09-27-2011 Matt Garza Anthony Bass CHN SD CHN 53.811 46.189 48.234 CHN 6 2 8
84 07-08-11 Mat Latos Chad Billingsley SD LAN LAN 54.233 45.767 42.033 LAN 0 1 1
85 08-11-11 Cory Luebke John Niese SD NYN NYN 54.442 45.558 45.302 SD 3 2 5
86 06-21-2011 Mat Latos Afredo Aceves SD BOS BOS 54.442 45.558 45.569 SD 5 4 9
87 06-25-2011 Jair Jurrjens Dustin Moseley ATL SD ATL 54.442 45.558 50.047 ATL 10 1 11
88 07-02-11 Cory Luebke Doug Fister SD SEA SEA 54.649 45.351 40.41 SD 1 0 1
89 07-09-11 Aaron Harang Rubby DeLaRosa SD LAN LAN 54.649 45.351 43.694 LAN 0 1 1
90 04-25-2011 Derek Lowe Dustin Moseley ATL SD ATL 54.649 45.351 49.178 SD 3 5 8
91 05-24-2011 Kyle McClellan Aaron Harang STL SD STL 54.649 45.351 48.062 STL 3 2 5
92 05-27-2011 Clayton Richard John Lannan SD WAS WAS 54.649 45.351 47.293 WAS 1 2 3
93 04-05-11 Madison Bumgarner Aaron Harang SF SD SF 54.955 45.045 49.852 SD 1 3 4
94 05-11-11 Tim Stauffer Randy Wolf SD MIL MIL 55.056 44.944 51.365 SD 13 6 19
95 05-22-2011 Felx Hernandez Tim Stauffer SEA SD SEA 55.056 44.944 54.539 SEA 6 1 7
96 07-30-2011 Ubaldo Jimenez Aaron Harang COL SD COL 55.056 44.944 43.474 COL 10 6 16
97 08-13-2011 Tim Stauffer Homer Bailey SD CIN CIN 55.056 44.944 42.083 CIN 1 13 14
98 06-17-2011 Clayton Richard Brian Duensing SD MIN MIN 55.357 44.643 42.345 MIN 5 6 11
99 05-18-2011 Yovanni Gallardo Dustin Moseley MIL SD MIL 55.457 44.543 51.097 MIL 5 2 7
100 08-01-11 Clayton Kershaw Cory Luebke LAN SD LAN 55.556 44.444 52.602 LAN 6 2 8
101 04-02-11 Clayton Richard Jake Westbrook SD STL STL 55.556 44.444 49.631 SD 11 3 14
102 07-31-2011 Juan Nicasio Wade LeBlanc COL SD COL 55.85 44.15 44.153 SD 3 8 11
103 07-01-11 Dustin Moseley Jason Vargas SD SEA SEA 56.044 43.956 39.199 SEA 0 6 6
104 07-15-2011 Tim Lincecum Dustin Moseley SF SD SF 56.044 43.956 44.965 SF 6 1 7
105 05-01-11 Dustin Moseley Jon Garland SD LAN LAN 56.14 43.86 52.144 SD 7 0 7
106 04-06-11 Tim Lincecum Tim Stauffer SF SD SF 56.14 43.86 50.145 SF 8 4 12
107 08-09-11 Wade LeBlanc Chris Capuano SD NYN NYN 56.236 43.764 40.123 NYN 4 5 9
108 05-23-2011 Kyle Lohse Dustin Moseley STL SD STL 56.236 43.764 43.61 STL 3 1 4
109 05-28-2011 Tim Stauffer Jordan Zimmerman SD WAS WAS 56.236 43.764 48.775 SD 2 1 3
110 08-10-11 Aaron Harang R.A. Dickey SD NYN NYN 56.803 43.197 43.476 SD 9 5 14
111 04-20-2011 Dustin Moseley Matt Garza SD CHN CHN 56.897 43.103 38.046 CHN 1 2 3
112 04-30-2011 Tim Stauffer Hiroki Kuroda SD LAN LAN 56.897 43.103 53.833 SD 5 2 7
113 07-19-2011 Tim Stauffer Anibal Sanchez SD FLA FLA 56.989 43.011 43.452 SD 4 0 4
114 06-18-2011 Tim Stauffer Scott Baker SD MIN MIN 57.082 42.918 47.635 MIN 0 1 1
115 09-07-11 Matt Cain Aaron Harang SF SD SF 57.173 42.827 46.36 SD 1 3 4
116 07-23-2011 Mat Latos Kyle Kendrick SD PHI PHI 57.173 42.827 48.282 PHI 6 8 14
117 09-25-2011 Clayton Kershaw Cory Luebke LAN SD LAN 57.173 42.827 52.447 LAN 6 2 8
118 05-15-2011 Mat Latos Jason Hammel SD COL COL 57.265 42.735 35.055 SD 8 2 10
119 09-17-2011 Josh Collmenter Wade LeBlanc ARI SD ARI 57.265 42.735 50.76 SD 1 3 4
120 06-07-11 Ubaldo Jimenez Tim Stauffer COL SD COL 57.356 42.644 46.927 SD 0 2 2
121 09-12-11 Aaron Harang Eric Surkamp SD SF SF 57.356 42.644 42.687 SF 3 8 11
122 05-17-2011 Tim Stauffer Daniel Hudson SD ARI ARI 57.806 42.194 41.18 ARI 1 6 7
123 05-09-11 Mat Latos Zach Greinke SD MIL MIL 57.895 42.105 44.69 MIL 4 3 7
124 04-18-2011 Tim Stauffer Carlos Zambrano SD CHN CHN 57.895 42.105 47.502 CHN 0 1 1
125 08-23-2011 Mat Latos Matt Cain SD SF SF 57.983 42.017 42.104 SD 7 5 12
126 08-14-2011 Wade LeBlanc Dontrelle Willis SD CIN CIN 58.071 41.929 38.517 SD 7 3 10
127 08-27-2011 Aaron Harang Joe Saunders SD ARI ARI 58.071 41.929 45.103 ARI 1 3 4
128 08-05-11 Aaron Harang Jeff Karstens SD PIT PIT 58.42 41.58 48.112 SD 15 5 20
129 08-31-2011 Wade LeBlanc Ted Lilly SD LAN LAN 58.42 41.58 47.945 LAN 2 4 6
130 09-10-11 Tim Stauffer Wade Miley SD ARI ARI 58.592 41.408 38.115 ARI 5 6 11
131 07-20-2011 Aaron Harang Ricky Nolasco SD FLA FLA 58.592 41.408 37.965 SD 14 3 17
132 08-30-2011 Tim Stauffer Hiroki Kuroda SD LAN LAN 58.763 41.237 40.227 LAN 5 8 13
133 04-03-11 Dustin Moseley Jaime Garcia SD STL STL 58.848 41.152 39.925 STL 0 2 2
134 06-14-2011 Wade LeBlanc Juan Nicasio SD COL COL 59.596 40.404 40.476 COL 3 6 9
135 06-15-2011 Mat Latos Jhoulys Chacin SD COL COL 59.596 40.404 38.943 COL 3 6 9
136 06-19-2011 Dustin Moseley Francisco Liriano SD MIN MIN 59.596 40.404 39.323 MIN 4 5 9
137 08-28-2011 Cory Luebke Ian Kennedy SD ARI ARI 59.596 40.404 48.3 ARI 1 6 7
138 09-13-2011 Cory Luebke Matt Cain SD SF SF 59.759 40.241 39.697 SF 2 3 5
139 09-09-11 Mat Latos Daniel Hudson SD ARI ARI 59.92 40.08 42.233 ARI 2 3 5
140 07-05-11 Tim Stauffer Matt Cain SD SF SF 60.239 39.761 44.37 SD 5 3 8
141 05-10-11 Clayton Richard Shaun Marcum SD MIL MIL 60.317 39.683 43.649 MIL 6 8 14
142 07-06-11 Dustin Moseley Madison Bumgarner SD SF SF 60.707 39.293 33.995 SF 5 6 11
143 05-13-2011 Dustin Moseley Jorge de la Rosa SD COL COL 60.861 39.139 29.235 COL 7 12 19
144 08-26-2011 Wade LeBlanc Josh Collmenter SD ARI ARI 61.014 38.986 38.827 ARI 0 5 5
145 08-29-2011 Mat Latos Clayton Kershaw SD LAN LAN 61.014 38.986 40.587 LAN 1 4 5
146 07-21-2011 Dustin Moseley Javier Vazquez SD FLA FLA 61.315 38.685 41.262 SD 5 3 8
147 09-14-2011 Mat Latos Tim Lincecum SD SF SF 61.538 38.462 40.605 SF 1 3 4
148 05-14-2011 Aaron Harang Jhoulys Chacin SD COL COL 62.617 37.383 36.293 SD 9 7 16
149 05-30-2011 Aaron Harang Tim Hudson SD ATL ATL 62.687 37.313 41.888 SD 3 2 5
150 09-08-11 Cory Luebke Ian Kennedy SD ARI ARI 62.963 37.037 44.606 ARI 1 4 5
151 07-22-2011 Cory Luebke Cole Hamels SD PHI PHI 63.57 36.43 36.314 PHI 1 3 4
152 08-24-2011 Tim Stauffer Tim Lincecum SD SF SF 63.57 36.43 33.523 SF 1 2 3
153 06-20-2011 Wade LeBlanc Andrew Miller SD BOS BOS 64.222 35.778 33.949 BOS 5 14 19
154 03-31-2011 Tim Stauffer Chris Carpenter SD STL STL 64.602 35.398 39.21 SD 5 3 8
155 06-13-2011 Anthony Bass Aaron Cook SD COL COL 64.727 35.273 35.38 SD 3 1 4
156 07-04-11 Clayton Richard Tim Lincecum SD SF SF 64.789 35.211 38.08 SD 5 3 8
157 04-24-2011 Roy Halladay Wade LeBlanc PHI SD PHI 64.851 35.149 43.585 PHI 3 1 4
158 06-01-11 Clayton Richard Tommy Hanson SD ATL ATL 64.974 35.026 35.776 ATL 3 4 7
159 09-11-11 Wade LeBlanc Josh Collmenter SD ARI ARI 65.096 34.904 36.345 SD 7 6 13
160 06-22-2011 Clayton Richard John Lackey SD BOS BOS 66.887 33.113 39.551 SD 5 1 6
161 07-24-2011 Tim Stauffer Roy Halladay SD PHI PHI 68.75 31.25 33.793 PHI 3 5 8
162 07-25-2011 Aaron Harang Cliff Lee SD PHI PHI 68.75 31.25 31.231 SD 5 4 9

                                                                                                                                                                                                               

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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