2011 Padres, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2011 8:47 AM PST

Here is a look at how the Padres 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Padres games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4676 which translates to an expected win total of 75.76 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Padres game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4842 or 78.44 wins. The Padres actually went 71-91 on the season. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Padres were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	SD Win Perc	Sim SD Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	09-26-2011	Casey Coleman	Mat Latos	CHN	SD	SD	62.756	62.756	61.577	SD	0	2	2
2	06-05-11	Jordan Lyles	Mat Latos	HOU	SD	SD	62.049	62.049	60.583	SD	2	7	9
3	05-03-11	Jeff Karstens	Mat Latos	PIT	SD	SD	60	60	61.671	SD	5	6	11
4	06-10-11	Jason Marquis	Mat Latos	WAS	SD	SD	59.759	59.759	59.388	WAS	2	1	3
5	06-04-11	Aneury Rodriguez	Aaron Harang	HOU	SD	SD	59.432	59.432	58.572	SD	3	6	9
6	05-02-11	James McDonald	Aaron Harang	PIT	SD	SD	59.1	59.1	63.309	PIT	4	3	7
7	06-29-2011	Bruce Chen	Tim Stauffer	KC	SD	SD	58.932	58.932	64.141	SD	1	4	5
8	09-03-11	Alex White	Cory Luebke	COL	SD	SD	58.333	58.333	59.25	COL	5	4	9
9	04-16-2011	Mat Latos	Neslon Figueroa	SD	HOU	SD	58.071	58.071	58.104	HOU	3	5	8
10	09-04-11	Aaron Cook	Mat Latos	COL	SD	SD	57.717	57.717	54.883	SD	2	7	9
11	05-04-11	Kevin Correia	Clayton Richard	PIT	SD	SD	57.537	57.537	59.847	PIT	7	4	11
12	08-17-2011	Dillon Gee	Mat Latos	NYN	SD	SD	57.356	57.356	61.198	NYN	7	3	10
13	05-06-11	Armando Galarraga	Tim Stauffer	ARI	SD	SD	57.173	57.173	63.094	SD	3	4	7
14	08-18-2011	Javier Vazquez	Tim Stauffer	FLA	SD	SD	57.173	57.173	55.503	SD	1	3	4
15	06-27-2011	Jeff Francis	Mat Latos	KC	SD	SD	56.989	56.989	58.19	SD	3	4	7
16	05-20-2011	Erik Bedard	Mat Latos	SEA	SD	SD	56.427	56.427	57.931	SEA	4	1	5
17	08-19-2011	Chris Volstad	Wade LeBlanc	FLA	SD	SD	56.427	56.427	56.558	SD	3	4	7
18	08-21-2011	Anibal Sanchez	Cory Luebke	FLA	SD	SD	55.457	55.457	58.559	SD	3	4	7
19	07-16-2011	Barry Zito	Cory Luebke	SF	SD	SD	55.257	55.257	58.511	SD	3	11	14
20	08-16-2011	John Niese	Cory Luebke	NYN	SD	SD	55.257	55.257	55.887	SD	1	6	7
21	08-20-2011	Clay Hensley	Aaron Harang	FLA	SD	SD	55.056	55.056	59.4	SD	1	14	15
22	06-03-11	J.A. Happ	Dustin Moseley	HOU	SD	SD	54.442	54.442	52.439	SD	1	3	4
23	06-09-11	Livan Hernandez	Aaron Harang	WAS	SD	SD	54.233	54.233	55.532	SD	3	7	10
24	07-29-2011	Jason Hammel	Tim Stauffer	COL	SD	SD	54.023	54.023	55.597	COL	3	2	5
25	09-20-2011	Mat Latos	Jhoulys Chacin	SD	COL	SD	54.023	54.023	42.15	SD	2	1	3
26	08-03-11	Ted Lilly	Tim Stauffer	LAN	SD	SD	53.811	53.811	60.144	SD	0	3	3
27	04-10-11	John Ely	Aaron Harang	LAN	SD	SD	53.811	53.811	56.713	SD	2	7	9
28	05-08-11	Joe Saunders	Aaron Harang	ARI	SD	SD	53.704	53.704	54.226	SD	3	4	7
29	06-28-2011	Felipe Paulino	Clayton Richard	KC	SD	SD	53.596	53.596	59.251	SD	2	4	6
30	06-02-11	Bud Norris	Tim Stauffer	HOU	SD	SD	53.488	53.488	56.295	HOU	7	4	11
31	06-11-11	John Lannan	Clayton Richard	WAS	SD	SD	53.271	53.271	56.959	WAS	2	1	3
32	04-08-11	Ted Lilly	Clayton Richard	LAN	SD	SD	52.719	52.719	52.719	LAN	4	2	6
33	04-12-11	Sam LeCure	Clayton Richard	CIN	SD	SD	52.494	52.494	54.658	CIN	8	2	10
34	07-26-2011	Joe Saunders	Dustin Moseley	ARI	SD	SD	52.494	52.494	56.343	ARI	6	1	7
35	09-16-2011	Wade Miley	Tim Stauffer	ARI	SD	SD	52.267	52.267	50.635	SD	0	2	2
36	07-27-2011	Ian Kennedy	Cory Luebke	ARI	SD	SD	52.153	52.153	54.837	ARI	4	3	7
37	07-17-2011	Matt Cain	Mat Latos	SF	SD	SD	51.923	51.923	52.42	SF	4	3	7
38	04-11-11	Edinson Volquez	Mat Latos	CIN	SD	SD	51.456	51.456	56.632	CIN	3	2	5
39	04-20-2011	Aaron Harang	James Russell	SD	CHN	SD	51.456	51.456	49.455	SD	5	4	9
40	09-02-11	Kevin Millwood	Aaron Harang	COL	SD	SD	51.338	51.338	48.774	COL	3	0	3
41	08-07-11	Mat Latos	Kevin Correia	SD	PIT	SD	51.22	51.22	54.809	SD	7	3	10
42	06-12-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Tim Stauffer	WAS	SD	SD	51.22	51.22	55.915	WAS	2	0	2
43	08-02-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Mat Latos	LAN	SD	SD	51.1	51.1	57.389	LAN	1	0	1
44	07-14-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Aaron Harang	SF	SD	SD	51.1	51.1	42.958	SF	6	2	8
45	05-07-11	Daniel Hudson	Dustin Moseley	ARI	SD	SD	50.86	50.86	46.476	ARI	6	0	6
46	06-24-2011	Derek Lowe	Tim Stauffer	ATL	SD	SD	50.739	50.739	60.098	SD	11	2	13
47	06-06-11	Clay Mortensen	Clayton Richard	COL	SD	SD	50.617	50.617	47.299	COL	3	0	3
48	06-26-2011	Tim Hudson	Cory Luebke	ATL	SD	SD	50.617	50.617	50.356	SD	1	4	5
49	08-08-11	Tim Stauffer	Mike Pelfrey	SD	NYN	SD	50.249	50.249	50.955	NYN	8	9	17
50	04-23-2011	Joe Blanton	Tim Stauffer	PHI	SD	SD	50.249	50.249	55.149	PHI	4	2	6
51	07-28-2011	Daniel Hudson	Mat Latos	ARI	SD	SD	50.249	50.249	52.228	SD	3	4	7
52	05-19-2011	Chris Narveson	Aaron Harang	MIL	SD	MIL	50.249	49.751	47.573	SD	0	1	1
53	08-15-2011	R.A. Dickey	Aaron Harang	NYN	SD	NYN	50.249	49.751	52.165	NYN	5	4	9
54	09-23-2011	Ted Lilly	Wade LeBlanc	LAN	SD	LAN	50.495	49.505	57.67	LAN	2	0	2
55	09-06-11	Eric Surkamp	Wade LeBlanc	SF	SD	SF	50.739	49.261	52.853	SF	6	4	10
56	04-27-2011	Tommy Hanson	Mat Latos	ATL	SD	ATL	50.739	49.261	51.211	ATL	7	0	7
57	07-10-11	Tim Stauffer	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	50.98	49.02	50.465	LAN	1	4	5
58	09-18-2011	Joe Saunders	Aaron Harang	ARI	SD	ARI	50.98	49.02	53.07	ARI	5	1	6
59	06-08-11	Aaron Cook	Dustin Moseley	COL	SD	COL	51.1	48.9	48.734	COL	5	3	8
60	08-12-11	Mat Latos	Bronson Arroyo	SD	CIN	CIN	51.1	48.9	48.277	CIN	3	5	8
61	09-24-2011	Chad Billingsley	Aaron Harang	LAN	SD	LAN	51.22	48.78	53.68	SD	0	3	3
62	04-15-2011	Aaron Harang	J.A. Happ	SD	HOU	HOU	51.338	48.662	49.47	SD	4	2	6
63	04-21-2011	Roy Oswalt	Mat Latos	PHI	SD	PHI	51.338	48.662	51.34	PHI	3	0	3
64	05-29-2011	Dustin Moseley	Yunesky Maya	SD	WAS	WAS	51.338	48.662	48.467	SD	5	4	9
65	07-07-11	Cory Luebke	Barry Zito	SD	SF	SF	51.807	48.193	46.931	SF	1	2	3
66	04-26-2011	Jair Jurrjens	Aaron Harang	ATL	SD	ATL	51.807	48.193	59.593	ATL	8	2	10
67	09-19-2011	Cory Luebke	Kevin Millwood	SD	COL	COL	51.923	48.077	49.41	SD	8	2	10
68	04-13-2011	Travis Wood	Tim Stauffer	CIN	SD	CIN	52.267	47.733	47.484	SD	2	3	5
69	05-16-2011	Clayton Richard	Armando Galarraga	SD	ARI	ARI	52.267	47.733	52.477	SD	8	4	12
70	09-28-2011	Ryan Dempster	Wade LeBlanc	CHN	SD	CHN	52.267	47.733	51.677	SD	2	9	11
71	09-05-11	Madison Bumgarner	Tim Stauffer	SF	SD	SF	52.494	47.506	44.6	SF	7	2	9
72	04-09-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Dustin Moseley	LAN	SD	LAN	52.494	47.506	48.656	LAN	4	0	4
73	04-14-2011	Dustin Moseley	Bud Norris	SD	HOU	HOU	52.607	47.393	52.054	HOU	0	1	1
74	08-06-11	Cory Luebke	Paul Maholm	SD	PIT	PIT	52.719	47.281	49.882	SD	13	2	15
75	04-17-2011	Clayton Richard	Brett Myers	SD	HOU	HOU	53.162	46.838	53.241	SD	8	6	14
76	04-22-2011	Cole Hamels	Clayton Richard	PHI	SD	PHI	53.162	46.838	50.382	PHI	2	0	2
77	09-21-2011	Anthony Bass	Aaron Cook	SD	COL	COL	53.162	46.838	42.24	SD	4	0	4
78	05-31-2011	Mat Latos	Mike Minor	SD	ATL	ATL	53.38	46.62	48.007	SD	5	4	9
79	07-03-11	Mat Latos	Matt Beaven	SD	SEA	SEA	53.596	46.404	44.889	SEA	1	3	4
80	05-25-2011	Chris Carpenter	Mat Latos	STL	SD	STL	53.596	46.404	46.615	SD	1	3	4
81	05-21-2011	Michael Pineda	Clayton Richard	SEA	SD	SEA	53.704	46.296	49.677	SEA	4	0	4
82	04-29-2011	Clayton Richard	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	53.811	46.189	53.996	LAN	2	3	5
83	09-27-2011	Matt Garza	Anthony Bass	CHN	SD	CHN	53.811	46.189	48.234	CHN	6	2	8
84	07-08-11	Mat Latos	Chad Billingsley	SD	LAN	LAN	54.233	45.767	42.033	LAN	0	1	1
85	08-11-11	Cory Luebke	John Niese	SD	NYN	NYN	54.442	45.558	45.302	SD	3	2	5
86	06-21-2011	Mat Latos	Afredo Aceves	SD	BOS	BOS	54.442	45.558	45.569	SD	5	4	9
87	06-25-2011	Jair Jurrjens	Dustin Moseley	ATL	SD	ATL	54.442	45.558	50.047	ATL	10	1	11
88	07-02-11	Cory Luebke	Doug Fister	SD	SEA	SEA	54.649	45.351	40.41	SD	1	0	1
89	07-09-11	Aaron Harang	Rubby DeLaRosa	SD	LAN	LAN	54.649	45.351	43.694	LAN	0	1	1
90	04-25-2011	Derek Lowe	Dustin Moseley	ATL	SD	ATL	54.649	45.351	49.178	SD	3	5	8
91	05-24-2011	Kyle McClellan	Aaron Harang	STL	SD	STL	54.649	45.351	48.062	STL	3	2	5
92	05-27-2011	Clayton Richard	John Lannan	SD	WAS	WAS	54.649	45.351	47.293	WAS	1	2	3
93	04-05-11	Madison Bumgarner	Aaron Harang	SF	SD	SF	54.955	45.045	49.852	SD	1	3	4
94	05-11-11	Tim Stauffer	Randy Wolf	SD	MIL	MIL	55.056	44.944	51.365	SD	13	6	19
95	05-22-2011	Felx Hernandez	Tim Stauffer	SEA	SD	SEA	55.056	44.944	54.539	SEA	6	1	7
96	07-30-2011	Ubaldo Jimenez	Aaron Harang	COL	SD	COL	55.056	44.944	43.474	COL	10	6	16
97	08-13-2011	Tim Stauffer	Homer Bailey	SD	CIN	CIN	55.056	44.944	42.083	CIN	1	13	14
98	06-17-2011	Clayton Richard	Brian Duensing	SD	MIN	MIN	55.357	44.643	42.345	MIN	5	6	11
99	05-18-2011	Yovanni Gallardo	Dustin Moseley	MIL	SD	MIL	55.457	44.543	51.097	MIL	5	2	7
100	08-01-11	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	LAN	SD	LAN	55.556	44.444	52.602	LAN	6	2	8
101	04-02-11	Clayton Richard	Jake Westbrook	SD	STL	STL	55.556	44.444	49.631	SD	11	3	14
102	07-31-2011	Juan Nicasio	Wade LeBlanc	COL	SD	COL	55.85	44.15	44.153	SD	3	8	11
103	07-01-11	Dustin Moseley	Jason Vargas	SD	SEA	SEA	56.044	43.956	39.199	SEA	0	6	6
104	07-15-2011	Tim Lincecum	Dustin Moseley	SF	SD	SF	56.044	43.956	44.965	SF	6	1	7
105	05-01-11	Dustin Moseley	Jon Garland	SD	LAN	LAN	56.14	43.86	52.144	SD	7	0	7
106	04-06-11	Tim Lincecum	Tim Stauffer	SF	SD	SF	56.14	43.86	50.145	SF	8	4	12
107	08-09-11	Wade LeBlanc	Chris Capuano	SD	NYN	NYN	56.236	43.764	40.123	NYN	4	5	9
108	05-23-2011	Kyle Lohse	Dustin Moseley	STL	SD	STL	56.236	43.764	43.61	STL	3	1	4
109	05-28-2011	Tim Stauffer	Jordan Zimmerman	SD	WAS	WAS	56.236	43.764	48.775	SD	2	1	3
110	08-10-11	Aaron Harang	R.A. Dickey	SD	NYN	NYN	56.803	43.197	43.476	SD	9	5	14
111	04-20-2011	Dustin Moseley	Matt Garza	SD	CHN	CHN	56.897	43.103	38.046	CHN	1	2	3
112	04-30-2011	Tim Stauffer	Hiroki Kuroda	SD	LAN	LAN	56.897	43.103	53.833	SD	5	2	7
113	07-19-2011	Tim Stauffer	Anibal Sanchez	SD	FLA	FLA	56.989	43.011	43.452	SD	4	0	4
114	06-18-2011	Tim Stauffer	Scott Baker	SD	MIN	MIN	57.082	42.918	47.635	MIN	0	1	1
115	09-07-11	Matt Cain	Aaron Harang	SF	SD	SF	57.173	42.827	46.36	SD	1	3	4
116	07-23-2011	Mat Latos	Kyle Kendrick	SD	PHI	PHI	57.173	42.827	48.282	PHI	6	8	14
117	09-25-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	LAN	SD	LAN	57.173	42.827	52.447	LAN	6	2	8
118	05-15-2011	Mat Latos	Jason Hammel	SD	COL	COL	57.265	42.735	35.055	SD	8	2	10
119	09-17-2011	Josh Collmenter	Wade LeBlanc	ARI	SD	ARI	57.265	42.735	50.76	SD	1	3	4
120	06-07-11	Ubaldo Jimenez	Tim Stauffer	COL	SD	COL	57.356	42.644	46.927	SD	0	2	2
121	09-12-11	Aaron Harang	Eric Surkamp	SD	SF	SF	57.356	42.644	42.687	SF	3	8	11
122	05-17-2011	Tim Stauffer	Daniel Hudson	SD	ARI	ARI	57.806	42.194	41.18	ARI	1	6	7
123	05-09-11	Mat Latos	Zach Greinke	SD	MIL	MIL	57.895	42.105	44.69	MIL	4	3	7
124	04-18-2011	Tim Stauffer	Carlos Zambrano	SD	CHN	CHN	57.895	42.105	47.502	CHN	0	1	1
125	08-23-2011	Mat Latos	Matt Cain	SD	SF	SF	57.983	42.017	42.104	SD	7	5	12
126	08-14-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Dontrelle Willis	SD	CIN	CIN	58.071	41.929	38.517	SD	7	3	10
127	08-27-2011	Aaron Harang	Joe Saunders	SD	ARI	ARI	58.071	41.929	45.103	ARI	1	3	4
128	08-05-11	Aaron Harang	Jeff Karstens	SD	PIT	PIT	58.42	41.58	48.112	SD	15	5	20
129	08-31-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	58.42	41.58	47.945	LAN	2	4	6
130	09-10-11	Tim Stauffer	Wade Miley	SD	ARI	ARI	58.592	41.408	38.115	ARI	5	6	11
131	07-20-2011	Aaron Harang	Ricky Nolasco	SD	FLA	FLA	58.592	41.408	37.965	SD	14	3	17
132	08-30-2011	Tim Stauffer	Hiroki Kuroda	SD	LAN	LAN	58.763	41.237	40.227	LAN	5	8	13
133	04-03-11	Dustin Moseley	Jaime Garcia	SD	STL	STL	58.848	41.152	39.925	STL	0	2	2
134	06-14-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Juan Nicasio	SD	COL	COL	59.596	40.404	40.476	COL	3	6	9
135	06-15-2011	Mat Latos	Jhoulys Chacin	SD	COL	COL	59.596	40.404	38.943	COL	3	6	9
136	06-19-2011	Dustin Moseley	Francisco Liriano	SD	MIN	MIN	59.596	40.404	39.323	MIN	4	5	9
137	08-28-2011	Cory Luebke	Ian Kennedy	SD	ARI	ARI	59.596	40.404	48.3	ARI	1	6	7
138	09-13-2011	Cory Luebke	Matt Cain	SD	SF	SF	59.759	40.241	39.697	SF	2	3	5
139	09-09-11	Mat Latos	Daniel Hudson	SD	ARI	ARI	59.92	40.08	42.233	ARI	2	3	5
140	07-05-11	Tim Stauffer	Matt Cain	SD	SF	SF	60.239	39.761	44.37	SD	5	3	8
141	05-10-11	Clayton Richard	Shaun Marcum	SD	MIL	MIL	60.317	39.683	43.649	MIL	6	8	14
142	07-06-11	Dustin Moseley	Madison Bumgarner	SD	SF	SF	60.707	39.293	33.995	SF	5	6	11
143	05-13-2011	Dustin Moseley	Jorge de la Rosa	SD	COL	COL	60.861	39.139	29.235	COL	7	12	19
144	08-26-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Josh Collmenter	SD	ARI	ARI	61.014	38.986	38.827	ARI	0	5	5
145	08-29-2011	Mat Latos	Clayton Kershaw	SD	LAN	LAN	61.014	38.986	40.587	LAN	1	4	5
146	07-21-2011	Dustin Moseley	Javier Vazquez	SD	FLA	FLA	61.315	38.685	41.262	SD	5	3	8
147	09-14-2011	Mat Latos	Tim Lincecum	SD	SF	SF	61.538	38.462	40.605	SF	1	3	4
148	05-14-2011	Aaron Harang	Jhoulys Chacin	SD	COL	COL	62.617	37.383	36.293	SD	9	7	16
149	05-30-2011	Aaron Harang	Tim Hudson	SD	ATL	ATL	62.687	37.313	41.888	SD	3	2	5
150	09-08-11	Cory Luebke	Ian Kennedy	SD	ARI	ARI	62.963	37.037	44.606	ARI	1	4	5
151	07-22-2011	Cory Luebke	Cole Hamels	SD	PHI	PHI	63.57	36.43	36.314	PHI	1	3	4
152	08-24-2011	Tim Stauffer	Tim Lincecum	SD	SF	SF	63.57	36.43	33.523	SF	1	2	3
153	06-20-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Andrew Miller	SD	BOS	BOS	64.222	35.778	33.949	BOS	5	14	19
154	03-31-2011	Tim Stauffer	Chris Carpenter	SD	STL	STL	64.602	35.398	39.21	SD	5	3	8
155	06-13-2011	Anthony Bass	Aaron Cook	SD	COL	COL	64.727	35.273	35.38	SD	3	1	4
156	07-04-11	Clayton Richard	Tim Lincecum	SD	SF	SF	64.789	35.211	38.08	SD	5	3	8
157	04-24-2011	Roy Halladay	Wade LeBlanc	PHI	SD	PHI	64.851	35.149	43.585	PHI	3	1	4
158	06-01-11	Clayton Richard	Tommy Hanson	SD	ATL	ATL	64.974	35.026	35.776	ATL	3	4	7
159	09-11-11	Wade LeBlanc	Josh Collmenter	SD	ARI	ARI	65.096	34.904	36.345	SD	7	6	13
160	06-22-2011	Clayton Richard	John Lackey	SD	BOS	BOS	66.887	33.113	39.551	SD	5	1	6
161	07-24-2011	Tim Stauffer	Roy Halladay	SD	PHI	PHI	68.75	31.25	33.793	PHI	3	5	8
162	07-25-2011	Aaron Harang	Cliff Lee	SD	PHI	PHI	68.75	31.25	31.231	SD	5	4	9

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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More data

In the Padres “Top 29” favored games they were 21-8 for a win percentage of 0.7241 and Vegas only to win 16.5 of those games. So the Padres even though they underwhelmed by 4.75 Vegas wins still managed to over perform by 4.5 wins on their “Top 29” favored games. The remaining 133 games must’ve been pretty ugly.

Let’s take a look at how they did in thirds of the season. Did the Padres tail off and play below their team true talent level towards the end of the season?

A: Not really, if anything the Padres had a slight uptick the last third of the season. Vegas expected the following win totals for each third of the season (25.37, 25.06, 25.33). While the simulator, always the one who thought the Padres were a little better than they were had the Padres with expected win totals of (26.91, 25.45, 26.16) and the empirical numbers came in (23, 23, 25). The Padres did not exceed their Vegas expected wins in any of the three thirds of the season, but came close to surpassing the expected total in the last third.

Next up, how did the Padres do compared to Vegas expectations when certain Padres pitchers were starting. The Padres performance when Aaron Harang was the starting pitcher really stands out as the best data point for the Padres.

1. Mat Latos
Starts: 31
Actual Team Wins: 13
Actual Team Losses: 18
Vegas Expected Wins: 15.60
Vegas Expected Losses: 15.40

2. Tim Stauffer
Starts: 31
Actual Team Wins: 14
Actual Team Losses: 17
Vegas Expected Wins: 15.27
Vegas Expected Losses: 15.73

3. Clayton Richard
Starts: 18
Actual Team Wins: 6
Actual Team Losses: 12
Vegas Expected Wins: 8.87
Vegas Expected Losses: 9.13

4. Dustin Moseley
Starts: 20
Actual Team Wins: 5
Actual Team Losses: 15
Vegas Expected Wins: 9.05
Vegas Expected Losses: 10.95

5. Cory Luebke
Starts: 17
Actual Team Wins: 8
Actual Team Losses: 9
Vegas Expected Wins: 8.43
Vegas Expected Losses: 8.57

6. Aaron Harang
Starts: 28
Actual Team Wins: 17
Actual Team Losses: 11
Vegas Expected Wins: 13.63
Vegas Expected Losses: 14.37

7. Wade LeBlanc
Starts: 14
Actual Team Wins: 6
Actual Team Losses: 8
Vegas Expected Wins: 6.33
Vegas Expected Losses: 7.67

Note: Hopefully there are no errors in my data but every once in a while something slips through.

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by Xeifrank on Nov 18, 2011 8:49 AM PST reply actions