I was listening to Darren Smith today and he threw out some numbers that got me thinking. Darren quoted Jed Hoyer as saying "it will take 92 victories to win the West".
So, let's do the math, shall we?
We (and yes I am not on the team) have 46 games left in the regular season. SF has 43 to go. If the Padres (disappointingly) play .500 ball for the rest of the season, they will end up with 92 wins. The Large Clumsy Ones from the North must go 26 / 17 and the Team Named After a Flying Squirrel must go 32 / 13 to win the West.
Note that the Padres are 2 games under their Pythagorean W-L of 71-45 , the true measure of luck stat. Also, note that the remaining schedule includes 24 cupcakes - 8 games against the Stinky Brown Furry Things 8, 3 vs the Sloppy Drunks, 6 facing the Short Statured Reptiles and 7 agin the Large Clumsy Ones from the North.
Finally, consider that the Padres have 7 Sundays left on their schedule.
Throw all those numbers into a big pot and stir...and take this poll.