Blue Jays defeat the Padres 7-1
by Dex on Jun 17, 2010 9:21 AM PDT
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PrintNow we are in second place. Now the Adrian Gonzalez watch begins.
I was getting IMs from somebody yesterday who, like the second the Dodgers won their game last night, started telling me that this is it. Ain't no way the Dodgers are giving up this lead now. Who knows. Maybe he's right.
THE END IS NIGH! THE END IS NIGH!
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I am sort of torn.
On one hand I blame Mike Adams. I believe we are 2-4 since he introduced the “BELIEVE!” T-Shirts to the clubhouse.
On the other hand I think maybe this series was very educational for the Pads. It should teach them that HR’s CAN be hit in the ballpark.
We are 3-3 on this home stand and the AWFUL O’s are coming to town. We don’t need to help them get back on their feet. We need to keep stomping them. If we go 6-3… thats a 66% win percentage… which one cannot argue with.
GO PADS!
"This team looks dangerous, like a convict with a temper, nothing to lose and a switch blade." -jbox
Don't let your love of Mikey A get in the way of the facts!
"This team looks dangerous, like a convict with a temper, nothing to lose and a switch blade." -jbox
I've heard worse
like “most stupidest”.
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
by TheThinGwynn on Jun 17, 2010 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions
The Padres don't even have to win today to get back in first.
Silly Dodger fans.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 17, 2010 9:31 AM PDT reply actions
7-8 in the month of June.
These games against the Orioles are becoming MWG. I don’t like when there’s pressure to beat crappy teams. These should be free and easy games, not tense and angry games.
by theodore donald kerabatsos on Jun 17, 2010 9:36 AM PDT reply actions
DON'T FREAK OUT
the Dodgers get to open a series against the Reds (1st place) and San Fran gets Toronto (good) and we get the Orioles.
Everyone remain calm. Mom was found, the earthquake stopped, now we will regain order in the west.
=SD=
They only get shitty red sux pitchers tho
Some rookie, wakefield who has a 7 ERA at home and is old and sucks, and then buckholz who is good
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 17, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Anyone for a
Dodger-reds/rockies-twins OT? Maybe?
"You're like the nicest internet person I know." - theodore donald kerabatsos
Adrian's leading the NL in WAR (for batters) today.
I like when one of our players is leading in a good stat.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
DEX, give us the person's name
Such arrogance and disrespect on the part of Dodger fans can not be tolerated.
I am not advocating violence, but merely irritating messages, e-mail, perhaps flowers on special holidays…
I partially blame myself for last night’s loss. I should not have posted first in the thread.
it was a Padres fan
he doesn’t read the blog. He’s always IMing me stuff like, “hey did you know Aaron Cunningham sold his Lincoln to Ice T?” And I’m forced to be like, “doublecheck where you found that please…”
Dear Dex,
Now don’t you go losing faith on me now too. You gotta keep believing. Believe that the Reds will pull off something of a miracle and get a win against the Dodgers this morning. Believe that our boys will come out of this off day pumped and ready to kill some birdies. WE ARE THE FRIAR FAITHFUL, DAMNIT, AND WE WILL NOT GIVE IN.
Love, jodes
I need new pants.
we need to get some OF O
Sorry, but if having the best run differential in the NL through 40% of the season is not enough to think that your team has a legitimate shot at the playoffs, what is? That was true as of 6/15, now we are edged out by Atlanta.
I like having faith, but I also like a FO willing to fill some holes. Our most glaring hole is OF offense. Arguably 3B offense too, but we are kind of invested in Headley.
So I am sick of seeing another decent leverage situation and we trot out Denorfia, Cunningham, Venable, Gwynn, etc, where we should have a capable hitter. I like Venable and Gwynn and maybe they develop, but they should not be Plan A on a first place team. Or a team that has been mostly in first place.
People have dismissed Dye and Burrell (the latter hitting 1.045 OPS right now) but both would have been upgrades on O. Yes, take a hit on D, but I would need to see some analysis to show that the offensive gains would be offset by the defensive losses. I am not crazy about trades because we don’t have a lot of depth to trade from. If there are any arguable FA additions that could help, as in Burrell and Dye, then I would pursue those.
It is great that Jed and Moorad have “The Plan” which, as far as I can tell means fielding a team totally on drafted, young and cheap talent. Reaping the benefits of that plan are a long way off. If Jed feels he can get better value near the trade deadline because more teams are willing to slough off players than they are now, OK. But my fear is that they are secretly hoping we slide enough to be official “sellers”.
So, I route and hope every game. But I also look realistically at the holes we have and hold the FO accountable for a) creating them; b) not filling them. Hold accountable in that I am annoyed at them but really have no other leverage. If we had a decent OF offense, we would be handily in first.
We win on Run Prevention
Which means that Gwynn is fine… and should probably be our full time CF starter. I like Scotty full time in LF… though he is weak against LHP… so maybe a bat that could platoon with him against LHP would be ok. I like a Venable and Cunningham Platoon in RF.
I think our offense would be better with Everth back. He gave us flexibility in the line up to keep guys fresh with JairHair. Right now I think our biggest problem is a stagnate line up unable to give many breaks to guys, and our bench is thin because of injuries.
"This team looks dangerous, like a convict with a temper, nothing to lose and a switch blade." -jbox
that is part of the equation...
We win by scoring more than the other guys. It is great that our D helps the other guys score less, but it hurts that those same guys don’t help us score much. And I am arguing for someone who can hit to play LF. Not that hard to play, especially with a good CF with range and we get a big boost to the offense.
Everth will be nice to get back, but hard to know how much he will add. Second year rule V guy. A lot of uncertainty.
Did you really just cite a stat, a shitty one at that, over 35 plate appearances???
I guess you’d love a guy who strikes out 3 times more often than he walks. lol
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 17, 2010 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Not to mentinon he's a terrible fielder.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 17, 2010 5:59 PM PDT up reply actions
It really is worth a mentinon.
www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev
by TheThinGwynn on Jun 17, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
i did cite that stat
who knows how it plays out and i don’t know what they are paying him, but it seems like a low downside, solid upside move
the giants are in the same position we are in: good pitching but no offense; sabean has made some dumb moves, but not all of his moves are dumb
yes, he is a bad fielder; and yes, we are have good defense but dismissing any good/decent hitter with a bad glove argues that we would put juan pierre over manny ramirez; ok, juan does not have an arm, but you see my point
the OPS for our LF’s is 575. not a typo. league average is 708, 701 for the NL
using some clumsy analysis, you can look at the relatinoship between team OPS and runs scored with PA’s. roughly, the difference between 575 and 700 for 1/9 of your PA’s (and it would not be 1/9, because he would be higher in the order), is basically 40 runs over the season. so, yes, pat may be a bad fielder, but is he 40 runs per season bad fielder?
i really don’t know the expected difference between a gold glove defender and a very bad fielder, but i would surprised if it is anywhere near 40 runs; we, hopefully, will not be getting 575 out of LF the rest of the way, but my larger point is that 575 from LF is not the way to win a division and jed does not seem to be running around finding replacements
there is no one in system that can step in, i fear our trade options will be limited, so why not do the best you can?
arguement aside...
why is OPS a crappy stat? i am genuinely curious, not arguing. i saw on BP article that argued that it was good at a team level but bad at the individual level, but it seemed a bit esoteric and my take away was that OPS weights slugging too much and OBP not enough
i have seen absolute average (or something like that) and win shares and others, but always assumed they were pretty strongly correlated with OPS
Because it treats OBP and SLG as equals
When in fact OBP in infinitely more important.
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jun 17, 2010 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions
fair enough
when i have done my correlation analyses and i get the best fit at 60% OBP and 40% slugging, but it does not change that much from 50/50; the r-squared of ops is like .92 and 60/40 model like .93
i suspect, as the BP article suggested, when you do analysis at the player level and not the team level, the true value of OBP comes out
Whats the Chi Squared?
"This team looks dangerous, like a convict with a temper, nothing to lose and a switch blade." -jbox
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