LeBlanc Getting It Done

The Padres improved to 17-10 last night and are, in my mind, undoubtedly the biggest surprise story of the 2010 season thus far. This fast start is largely in part of fantastic pitching. The Padres pitching staff carried a 2.92 ERA and a higher but still stellar 3.74 FIP into their contest against the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday night.

Tuesday’s starter Wade LeBlanc has been a large part of the tremendous performance. He held the Rockies to two runs on seven hits in six innings, striking out four and walking two, not allowing a home run. Remarkably enough, this was quite easily LeBlanc’s worst start – it was the first one in which he had allowed more than one run or had a negative WPA.

about 2 years ago Wonko 7 comments 0 recs |

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Nice things to say about LeBlanc.

They still don’t buy the Padres as a whole, probably with good reason.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 5, 2010 9:19 AM PDT reply actions

I didn't get that impression

I also didn’t get the impression that they do buy into them either.

They are right that LeBlanc is walking a highwire act with that strand rate. There’s only so long you can keep stranding runners before some ground balls with eyes, dying quails or broken bat singles start causing problems.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on May 5, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions

I agree with you about the strand rate and it will definitely drop.

And he’ll give up runs. I don’t think anyone expects him to have an ERA in the 1.00s.

But I did ask Dave Cameron about the Padres in their chat today, and he told me flat out, “No, they’re not for real.”

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 5, 2010 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions

One of the reasons he said that

is because he thinks LeBlanc and Richard will regress majorly. Fair enough (and I don’t think that anyone expected LeBlanc to have an ERA in the 1.00s), but why don’t the Giants get penalized for Zito and Sanchez far out-performing their track records? At least our pitchers are young without established track records, unlike Zito and Sanchez who do.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 5, 2010 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Both Sanchez and Richard are definitely closer to their projections than Zito or LeBlanc. But, it does seem like a very poignant argument. I’d also argue that Latos is underperforming most projections for him. In addition, the Giants are also hitting .278/.344/.428 as a team. That seems like an unreasonable pace. While the Padres are hitting only slightly better than 2009. However, both teams are also winning games at unreasonable paces given their projections.

Anyway it would seem that the Giants are winning their games (and less of them) by hitting and pitching over their heads. The Padres are winning games by only pitching over their heads. Obviously, there are varying degrees of “over their heads” that could apply here, but it would seem that logic would dictate that the Giants would be the more likely team to regress. I would think the onus of proof would be on Cameron to say why the Padres would regress more.

Basically, I don’t see what you can point to with the Padres and say, “this is so far above what they can do that their current 102 win pace will regress back to 70 wins” or whatever. You could make the argument that if LeBlanc and Richard and Correia all regress so that their ERAs are between 4 and 4.5 and Latos improves such that he is in that range and the bullpen regresses slightly back to 2009 levels then you could probably knock them into the 80 wins area. But, I just don’t see how you can’t knock the Giants back there as well, if not farther.

One of the big problems with some of the Padres-suckiness logic is that I just don’t see this team going in the tank for extended periods like the 2008 or 2009 teams did. I mean, when those teams regressed, they flatlined to the bottom.

No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on May 5, 2010 5:28 PM PDT up reply actions

Exactly.

As you brought up with Latos, while some players are over-performing, others are under-performing significantly. Given the state of the NL West and the fact that the Padres already have a (albiet small) head start on the rest of the teams, I don’t see any reason why they can’t be in the hunt all year long for the division or the wild card.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 5, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions

In re bullpen regression

I think there’s every reason to expect it to be better this year. Last year’s numbers, though very good, were still weighed down by the trash we threw out there for a big chunk of the season. This year, there aren’t any Duaner Sanchez’s or Edwin Moreno’s—nothing but proven arms.

"It is a truth universally acknowledged that a zombie in possession of brains must be in want of more brains."
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.

by Zach (maestro876) on May 5, 2010 6:11 PM PDT up reply actions

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