Padres fall to the Diamondbacks, 6-3. Dan Haren too sexy to handle
by Dex on Apr 5, 2010 7:42 PM PDT
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PrintI think it's interesting that a team built for speed and defense should lose, in part, because of a couple of errors. It's also interesting to see an inside-the-park home run hit against us.
I was excited for a moment when the Padres got the back to back home runs in the ninth, but only for the moment.
More thoughts in bullet form:
- The heart of the Padres order (Adrian Gonzalez, Kyle Blanks, Chase Headley) is 5-12 with a double, two home runs, 3 RBIs and 3 R
- The rest of the team is 0-20
- Jon Garland is not a fast worker. I've seen cathedrals built in the time it takes this guy to get to a ready position.
- Dan Haren was lights out. I am eager to see anybody but Haren tomorrow.
- I am eager to see more of the Diamondbacks bullpen this week if Bob Howry was any indicator of anything.
- I know there's probably a good reason for it, but I'm looking forward to when our 1-2 hitters start behaving like 1-2 hitters.
I am now 0-1 this season in Open Threads. I've asked Jonny Dub to do tomorrows. He thinks he can do better. We'll see about that.
Still, the Dodgers lost and baseball is here! It looked gross today, but the heart is strong! The heart beats! All is not lost yet!
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Be interesting to see what CY has tomorrow.
These games hinge on starting pitching. Our bullpen is way better than theirs. If the starters can get us to the 6th/7th inning with a lead or tie I like our chances. Same formula would have worked today if not for Garland sucking.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 5, 2010 7:56 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Plus
Edwin Jackson is a WAY worse pitcher than Dan Haren. We should get a few more baserunners tomorrow.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 5, 2010 7:59 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Jackson had one good year last year mostly fueled by luck.
Outside of that he’s been league average or worse.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Of course
our lineup will likely make him look much better.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Dangerously close.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
We're 0.6% of the way through the season
Let’s at least make it to 5% before making that decision, heh.
I gave up...
…in hopes of catching your breakfast burrito.
by Drama on Apr 6, 2010 5:53 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m committed to giving up until such time as Eckstein is removed from the 2-hole.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
Second
Too bad Donatello is already hurt again. Hopefully the Aristocrat hits like .500 in AA so he can move up quicklyl
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Apr 5, 2010 9:20 PM PDT up reply actions
We should get Loretta back in there
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Apr 6, 2010 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions
Garland was mediocre
Not bad… he has made a career of being league average. The sloppy D by Cabrera, Headley, and Gonzo screwed us… we win 3-2 without the Un-Earned runs.
Only 2 Earnies for Jon not too bad
Compare that to the Dodgers Ace who gave up 7 earnies in only 4 IP
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Apr 5, 2010 9:21 PM PDT reply actions
Against the PIRATES
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Apr 5, 2010 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Puh-lease
It’s not like Jon was pitching well without those errors. He could locate his best pitch. He was off, errors or no that was bad outing.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Just got done watching the game on DVR
not what I was hoping for. Errors definitely costs us and Adrian never came to the plate with a man on base. This is going to be a long season if Gwynn and Eck can’t get on base. We were facing a top notch pitcher in Harren so I am excited to see what we can do tomorrow.
We can still win the series and that’s what we need to do. One series at a time.
Lamar = Laker for Life...Go Pads...Go Bolts
by mrbarneydangles on Apr 5, 2010 11:05 PM PDT reply actions
You'll be waiting a long time
for Eckstein to get on base.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
^This
He’s the worst hitting position player on the team. He should be batting 8th or 9th if they insist on starting him.
Bolts from the Blue // "He looks like a catfish" - Nick Hardwick on Brandon Siler
Bloody Elbow // " looks like your comment violated rule #4. and it’s a heck of a rule, rule #4" - Kid Nate
by Richard Wade on Apr 6, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Agreed 100%.
I was listening to Buddy Black on the radio this morning and he said, “We need guys to get on base in front of our 3-4-5 hitters. We need to improve our on base percentage.” Noble sentiments to be sure, but if that’s the goal then WHY ARE GWYNN AND ECKSTEIN HITTING FIRST AND SECOND?!?!?!?!??
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
Bobbleheads
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Apr 6, 2010 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Why are you including Gwynn with Eckstein?
Assuming we don’t play Gwynn against lefties, TGJr should end up with one of the best OBPs on the team. The only players I can say with a deal of confidence that will finish with higher OBPs are Adrian and Blanks. He easily could end up close or ahead of Venable, Headley and Cabrera.
Obviously, Gwynn had a hard time with Haren yesterday. But, I think of Haren as the 2nd best pitcher in the NL. So, I’m not going to pass judgment just for that.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Apr 6, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
I imagine it doesn't make that much of a difference.
Cabrera and Headley are both projected with higher OBPs than Gwynn, though not by much, so he could end up better than them.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
By PECOTA
Gwynn is supposed to best Cabrera’s OBP by .001. However, if Gwynn bats like his projection for a month or so, he should really be removed from the lineup entirely. And, if Cabrera matches his he doesn’t belong at the top of the lineup. Both guys need to take a step forward in order to be top of the lineup guys.
Given that Gwynn is in his prime and put up a .350 OBP in his only chance at consistent playing time (and .390 in his last stop at AAA), it seems like he’s a decent candidate to bat in front of Adrian. Cabrera strikes me as more of a wild card as far as how he’ll hit this year. And plus you’d like to able to use his speed to steal bases and it’s riskier to do that at the top of the lineup.
The main thing seems to be that it’s hard to project who exactly will be a better table setter for Adrian and Blanks in 2010.
It’s interesting that with Eckstein, his worst case scenario projection has him at .330 OBP, which is funny because that’s actually higher than last year. His 50th percentile projection is actually higher than his career OBP.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Looking at the projections available on Fangraphs
Gwynn projects in the .340ish range. Cabrera projects to the .340-50ish range. Eckstein in the .320-30ish range. I didn’t know the PECOTA projections.
I guess it’s fine to have Gwynn up there, so long as Eck isn’t.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm not sure about the accuracies of any of the FanGraph projections
PECOTA has been one of the most accurate for about the last decade and you can see the ranges of the projections. Most projections are just weighted means which can often hide the volatility of a projection. For example, two guys could have a .250/.320/.400 projection, but one guy may have a 90th percentile projection of .300/.360/.500 and the other .270/.330/.420. You’ll probably what the first guy even if his 10th percentile projection is terrible (at least you’ll be able to see he’s terrible pretty quick and replace him), whereas what you’ll get with the other guy is pretty blah.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
All right.
Like I said, I guess I’m ok with Gwynn up there, then. I still think it would be better to have Cabrera up there with him, as he could use the plate appearances more than Eckstein.
Btw, while we’ve been talking Eckstein is no longer in the lineup tonight and Jerry Hairston takes his place. Woohoo!
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Seems to me
That’s part of the plan of having Jerry there. He’ll fill in for various people at various, especially an older fellow like Eck. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jerry plays 4 out of every 7 games and not just for PH and platoon reasons.
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Oh I also wanted to say
that from just perusing, it seems like most of the projection systems that are computer-based (as opposed to Bill James) universally predict every player to be worse than the year before, sometimes significantly so.
So we should probably remember some of the guys we’re talking about have room to improve and get better, and out-perform their projections.
"I aim to misbehave." - Mal Reynolds
Bolts From The Blue - Heavy with the facts, slightly less heavy with the opinions.
by Zach (maestro876) on Apr 6, 2010 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions
We still have games left this season..........Right?
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
WRONG.
(My apologies. Wonko is attending to some other, more official, contrarian activities. He should be back shortly. Thanks for your patience.)
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Apr 6, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
You're both wrong.
(Remember, that’s my catch phrase, I don’t go around just telling one person they are wrong)
No, I don't think you're an idiot. Please don't go trying to prove me wrong about that.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Apr 6, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Blankety Blank
Love me some big Blanks power. It made up for the loss. Predictions? 30+ HRs
by Original Blanksta on Apr 6, 2010 11:13 AM PDT reply actions
Powerful? Likable? He's like Ryan Klesko, except he kind of looks like he belongs in the outfield
Klesko never ran anywhere unless you pointed him at a taco bar and slapped his ass.
Yup, I'm the nut who believes Mark Loretta is a possible future Hall of Famer.
by StrangeBroP25 on Apr 6, 2010 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Everytime Klesko was starting in LF
We called it “Adventures in the Outfield”
Because you never knew where he was going to do.
It was always creative, though.
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