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Padres 2010 Preview: San Diego Padres, current home of Adrian Gonzalez

SBNation asked each of their baseball blogs to write up a preview.

Introduction

After opening Petco Park with four winning seasons and winning two NL West pennants, the Padres fell on hard times in 2008, finishing with 99 losses. The Padres came back in 2009 with a younger team and a new ownership group, and improved on their 2008 record by 12 games.

When a team is as little-known as the San Diego Padres, finishing with close to a hundred losses caused most casual baseball fans outside of San Diego to just forget about the team completely, which plays right into our hands considering our strategy of winning while people aren't paying attention.

Position Players

In February, when pressed, Padres manager Bud Black offered this up as his would-be 2010 lineup:

1. Anthony Keith Gwynn Jr., CF

2. David Eckstein, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. Chase Headley, 3B
5. Kyle Blanks, LF
6. Will Venable, RF
7. Nick Hundley, C
8. Everth Cabrera, SS

Adrian Gonzalez is the Padres' best position player and is also the player least likely to finish the season as a Padre. Best guess says that the Padres will move Adrian Gonzalez for at least four and as many as seven players in return. Obviously, the team would hope to get young prospects. Moving Adrian Gonzalez at the right time would enable the Padres to play Kyle Blanks at first base and keep proper outfielders in the outfield.
 
Just for the record, Tony Gwynn's son and David Eckstein have little to no business being at the top of a lineup that also features Everth Cabrera and Will Venable, not to mention a platooning Scott Hairston, recently reacquired from the A's as part of a deal involving Kevin Kouzmanoff.

With Kouzmanoff gone, the Padres can play Chase Headley at his more natural position of 3B and slide Kyle Blanks over to LF. Scott Hairston can play every outfield position and the only thing keeping this team from starting Hairston is the Gwynn name and the promise of genetics.

Jerry Hairston Jr. and Matt Stairs are also on the team to provide something.

Rotation

Some combination of Chris Young, Kevin Correia, Jon Garland, Clayton Richard, Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc and Tim Stauffer.

There's a definite "play-to-your-strengths" thing going on with the Padres' rotation. Even without 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy, the Padres will have several guys to choose from to make up their rotation in 2010. While it's not a staff full of aces, there are plenty of young options that have the potential to make up for it. Kevin Correia was a solid presence to make up for the injuries to Peavy and Young last season. The front office believes John Garland will play to Petco Park perfectly. Clayton Richard showed plenty of heart. All that said, my money's on Mat Latos to have a bit of a breakthrough this season.

Bullpen

Heath Bell will be doing the closing once again this season and while there has been some moaning among Padres faithful that he won't have as strong a bullpen behind him as he's had in years past, just the fact that the Padres play in Petco Park will keep the middle innings at home safe.

In The System

As young as this team is to begin with, my own guess is that the Padres will play the guys that they have up at the start of the season with just occasional looks to the minor leagues. Donavan Tate is one player who Padres fans are looking forward to. Josh Barfield will likely start the season at AAA Portland and may see some action with the big league club as well.

Miscellaneous

Maybe the most important thing to note is that Kevin Towers has been replaced with former Theo Epstein protege Jed Hoyer. The ownership group is in the process of transitioning from John Moores, who was forced to sell the team because of a not-unmessy divorce. While the budget is reported to be tight this season, the new ownership group has been busy sending the message to fans that the Padres' rebuild will not be a lengthy process. The restrictive cable contract that the Padres are currently in will be expiring in the next year or so and Jed Hoyer et al. may use 2010 as a dry run for getting back into the playoff hunt by next year.


All that said, if the dice fall right and the young team somehow does well enough to be in contention moving towards the All-Star Break, it would seem to behoove the new ownership group to try to top things off a bit earlier than 2011.

Conclusion

I like to look at odds in reverse. Would I be willing to bet $200 to win $1 that the Padres won't win the World Series? Heck no! That's a suckers bet. The Padres should at LEAST be a 100-1 shot. Look at the number as we get closer to the middle of the season and my money is that it climbs to better than 50-1 as more of the young guys get noticed.

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments |

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Comments

Display:

I'm okay with the team platooning Gwynn Jr. and Shrek

And since Dan Haren is the opening day starter for the DBacks, that means that Gwynn is the opening day starter in CF. I also don’t mind him at the top of the lineup since he has speed, but can’t steal very well. That’s ideal since you don’t want to be stealing bases in front of Adrian anyway since he can knock you in from anywhere.

 I like Cabrera batting in a spot where his SBs can be a weapon instead of a hindrance. It seems it would be better to move him to 7th, since I could see Hundley flying out a lot and ECab could be on 3rd with 3Bs or 2Bs+SBs. With him batting 8th you are going to end up bunting him over to a base that he could have stolen.

If I wanted to go out of the box, I might put Blanks batting 2nd if Buddy’s heart is set on protecting AGon with Savior. That would seem to put a lot more pressure on the pitcher than having Eckstein there. And I’m pretty sure Blanks is actually a better runner than the scrappy Eck. Of course, I’m not a huge fan of Eck as an everyday player to begin with, but there aren’t any other options unless Antonelli rises from the grave.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 3, 2010 12:45 PM PST reply actions  

You have a good point

And since Gwynn doesn’t get on base very well, it actually kinda helps in that the fewer people on in front of Adrian, the less likely they are to walk him to avoid the multi-run homer.

by Dex on Mar 3, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions  

I'm not as pessimistic about TGJr's on base skills as you are.

I would consider them on par with Hairston or Venable at this point. A career .342 OBP against righties is nothing to sneeze at (at least compared to the rest of the Padres).

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 3, 2010 1:58 PM PST up reply actions  

I am not comfortable with the word PENNANT

being used to describe winning a division.
It cheapens the meaning.

by strummer on Mar 3, 2010 12:55 PM PST reply actions  

It's somewhat apt

It’s usually a reference to flag being displayed for winning something. The Padres do display their Divisional Titles as pennants. So, while you may not be comfortable, it still kinda works.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 3, 2010 12:58 PM PST up reply actions  

i have come across others that get bent about the word Pennant.

I think its odd.
I guess my thinking is more in line with Wonkos. they won something.

552

by wrveres on Mar 4, 2010 12:16 AM PST up reply actions  

I've never dated a baseball fan

so I’m not sure how anyone I’ve came across feels about that word.

(I can never resist a lame jizz joke)

www.FriarsOnCardboard.blogspot.com
"jbox does not drink coffee, as it makes him clean house big time." ~Kev

by TheThinGwynn on Mar 4, 2010 12:47 AM PST up reply actions  

who calls it a flag?

People call it a pennant. It’s a pennant. People refer to the winner of the NL West as the NL West champion. Does the word “champion” make you feel uncomfortable there?

by Dex on Mar 3, 2010 1:40 PM PST up reply actions  

Winning the NL West

or any other division is not a pennant.
Just because Padre fans prefer to cheapen the currency, does not change its definition.

Go to any other town and start claiming the Padres won 2 pennants this decade, and they will laugh in your face. Winning a division is not winning a pennant.

by strummer on Mar 3, 2010 1:50 PM PST up reply actions  

Well

Wikipedia’s entry for Pennant (sports) offers us this:

In Major League Baseball, a pennant typically refers to such a flag flown specifically by the National League or American League championship team of a given season, or to such a championship itself.

However, the entry for Pennant says the following:

Pennant race, the race to clinch the league or division title in a regular baseball season.

So, congratulations, you’re all a-holes.

Anywho, I think having a pennant for NL West Division Champions is like having one for the NL West Sportsmanship Award or Baseball’s #1 Dads. Maybe we can start to phase out the division pennants as we win more league championships?

"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG

by TheGrandHatching on Mar 3, 2010 2:14 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

SBNation, asking you to do stuff

Where do they get off?

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Mar 3, 2010 1:16 PM PST reply actions  

You forgot Sean Gallagher

He’s probably the leader for the 5 spot as spring training starts.

Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Mar 3, 2010 1:38 PM PST reply actions  

My leader for the 5th spot is Stauffer.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 3, 2010 1:54 PM PST up reply actions  

Personally...

I’d rather have Latos as a 5th starter

by Padrefanatico on Mar 3, 2010 2:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Me too

That doesn’t make him the favorite though.

I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.

Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't

by Wonko on Mar 3, 2010 2:38 PM PST up reply actions  

I have been pulling for Gallagher but would love for it to be Latos.

I am prepared however, to hear the news that it will be Stauffer or LeBlanc, which reminds me of doing my taxes. “Didn’t I just do these last year?”

by goldfyngor on Mar 3, 2010 11:12 PM PST up reply actions  

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