SI writer and MLB insider Tom Verducci has "red-flagged" Latos and Carrillo to spend some time on the DL for the upcoming 2010 season. On hot stove the other night, Verducci said he previously red-flagged 34 young pitchers, and only 4 improved and stayed healthy the following season. Ouch!
almost 2 years ago
81homegames
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I'm not going to lie
I started reading Verducci’s article and then I got sidetracked by pictures of Lindsey Vonn.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Feb 18, 2010 11:12 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
Is it just me...
…or do you get incredibly deflated whenever ESPN runs an update on the ticker regarding her health and it reads “Vonn’s husband reports her shin…blah, blah, blah.”
Husband?? F**k.
Who's also her coach...
He got in there early.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
by Axion on Feb 18, 2010 1:24 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How much do you think
it costs to open a women’s Olympic training facility?
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
Well, if I've learned anything from GLB
it’s that peepholes in the locker room practically pay for themselves.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Feb 18, 2010 2:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, it's not just you ...
but whenever I do something like that, a dozen other obstacles come to my mind, so I know my only chance is in fantasy anyway, so what difference does it make that she wears a ring. Like the fantasy where I’m the only man left on Earth, … well you probably don’t want to know the details. I bet you already have your favorite version.
by playingwithinmyself on Feb 18, 2010 1:36 PM PST up reply actions
Yup
Usually, I’m a scientist who was unable to stop the spread of the terrible virus that was incurable and man-made. Immune, I am now the last human survivor in what is left of New York City and perhaps the world. For three years, I have faithfully sent out daily radio messages, desperate to find any other survivors who might be out there. But I am not alone. Mutant victims of the plague — The Infected — lurk in the shadows… watching my every move… waiting for me to make a fatal mistake. Perhaps mankind’s last, best hope, I am driven by only one remaining mission: to find a way to reverse the effects of the virus using my own immune blood. But I know I am outnumbered… and quickly running out of time.
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Feb 18, 2010 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
Don't you love those days
when the only thing you get accomplished is commenting on GLB?
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Feb 18, 2010 1:54 PM PST up reply actions
Days, weeks...whatever
Thank you for waving at me.
by Winfield's Ghost on Feb 18, 2010 1:57 PM PST up reply actions
Yes. With Lindsey's pictures.
Thank you for waving at me.
by Winfield's Ghost on Feb 18, 2010 2:01 PM PST up reply actions
Isn't that WG's latest novel?
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 18, 2010 3:43 PM PST up reply actions
Seriously
It’s like, “Come on, ESPN! You had to wait for me to close my office door and take my pants off before you show me that?”
"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG
by TheGrandHatching on Feb 18, 2010 1:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Verducci Effect
This was an interesting tool about 10 years ago, but information is a little more detailed these days. As are what we know about pitcher mechanics and how that effects how much workload a pitcher can handle.
There is also a bias in his data. The “effect” is that a pitcher 25 or younger who establishes a career high in innings while also increasing their IP by a certain number (in the graphic above it seems to be 50 IP, but I think the effect is usually a 30 IP increase) is likely to see in a decrease in ERA or an injury in the next year.
Bias 1: Pitchers 25 and younger are more likely to get hurt period. More days are spent on the DL per pitcher by pitchers 25 and younger than pitchers 26 and older. So there’s that.
Bias 2: Players who establish a career high in anything will tend to regress back towards the average for their group the next year in that category. Chances are if the pitcher had a career high in innings his ERA was above average, so he’s already more likely to see a high ERA the following year.
Basically what I’m saying that the Verducci Effect takes players who are already likely to get injured and experience a decrease in ERA and saying that a subset of those players are also likely to see one of these two things happen. While that subset is possibly more likely than the superset, there is actually no evidence shown at this point that this is true. So, we all should be skeptical.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 18, 2010 3:25 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
Pitcher Mechanics and Tommy John
Certain pitchers have better mechanics that others. Some will inherently be able to put up with workload increases no matter how sudden or big they are. The Verducci Effect does not take this into account while some major league organizations do. So there is a chance that certain pitchers are purposely qualifying for the Verducci Effect because the organization knows that they can handle it.
Returns from Tommy John surgery are quite predictable and there’s a certain timeframe where the pitcher needs to be babied and a certain point where they can be treated like everyone else. These timeframes are well established after many recorded experiences of Tommy John recovery and baseball organization can be comfortable with innings increases for Tommy John survivors after they have reached a certain milestone. I believe Carrillo fits this description.
m
That being said, I’m not sure that Latos fits either description. I think the Padres worked him hard and are risking injury, but, like my previous post said, that risk may not be any greater than the one established by him being a pitcher 25 and younger.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 18, 2010 3:34 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
Nice posts
Paragraphs and everything.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
by Axion on Feb 18, 2010 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
With basebally talk
Mountain West Connection ::Above the Rest::
Bolts From The Blue "There’s a gleam men. Let’s go get the gleam! Focus and Finish!!! One play at a time!!! Let's Go!!!"
it kind of reminds me of that movie "You've got mail"...I'm Tom Hanks he's Meg Ryan -- Padres prospect Matt Antonelli on sdsuaztec4
by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Feb 18, 2010 4:00 PM PST up reply actions
It was a conscious decision
Thanks, jbox!
Take that, WG!
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
by Wonko on Feb 18, 2010 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm flabbergasted
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
TWSS
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Taken
and rec’d.
Thank you for waving at me.
by Winfield's Ghost on Feb 19, 2010 5:53 AM PST up reply actions
So are you saying...
that the Padres don’t need to be watchful of Latos’ workload this season because he is equally likely to suffer injury due to his youth?
Because an MLB season is so much longer than a HS or College season it makes sense that young pitchers are susceptible to overwork and possible injury. I think there’s a subset within that under 25 age group and it’s those who’ve begun to build the stamina to log over 200 inning a season. Those within that subset are probably less likely to suffer injury than the pitcher who ups his innings by 50-80 year over year…..of course I refuse to do the research necessary to substantiate that opinion.
So I just hope the Padres are careful with Latos.
"Shut the fuck up Donnie, you're out of your element!" ~Walter Sobchak from The Big Lebowski
No
I’m saying that the Verducci Effect is not a good reason to be watchful of his workload.
He’s already at risk without knowing about the Verducci effect (he’s already been sidelined by nagging injuries and he’s in the at risk group of young pitchers), so they already should be mindful of his workload.
The theories you present on pitchers are ones that have come up before. What we know today is that certain pitcher’s body makeup are better for “building up stamina” and others are not. Not every pitcher has the proper motion to take advantage of how their body works or know where the weak points in the kinetic chain are for them. To this day people still think that the big and strong pitchers will have better stamina, but really that has little effect on how much they can abuse their tendons and joints. Coaches and organizations today are both too conservative and too aggressive. Some pitchers cannot handle the abuse of high workloads brought on by ignorant coaches. And, at the opposite end, some pitchers get babied when they actually could have the type of mechanics and body type to thrive in long outings, high pitch counts and less days off.
What this all means is that the Padres have to do their due diligence with all their young pitchers, Latos included, and try to figure out exactly what that player can handle and let them handle it. That sort of analysis can’t be summed up by the Verducci Effect or Pitcher Abuse Points or whatever other metric is used that doesn’t treat the athlete as an individual.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
The Million Dollar Question
He’s already at risk without knowing about the Verducci effect (he’s already been sidelined by nagging injuries and he’s in the at risk group of young pitchers), so they already should be mindful of his workload.
Gotcha.
Does Latos have the mechanics to increase inning substantially this year? I would guess, no, due to a litany of nagging injuries.
"Shut the fuck up Donnie, you're out of your element!" ~Walter Sobchak from The Big Lebowski
Most likely
Latos will never be a workhorse type pitcher and he’ll probably have a major injury at some point. I would advocate babying him unless the team has a real shot at contention.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Bigger Pitchers
To this day people still think that the big and strong pitchers will have better stamina, but really that has little effect on how much they can abuse their tendons and joints.
Since the bigger guy isn’t exerting himself as much to throw high velocity, doesn’t that equal more stamina and less stress on the arm?
by 81homegames on Feb 19, 2010 10:29 AM PST up reply actions
Not necessarily
It all depends on how they exert the force through their arm. If one thing is out of alignment it really doesn’t matter how much force they exert since it will fatigue them just as fast.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
well....
check the league leaders in IP from last season…. Lincecum and Greinke are the only ones in the top ten under 6’5" tall… whatever that means.
Great
Can you now look at the other 100 years worth of pitching statistics and get back to me. Divide them up by era please, that would be helpful. Oh, and get some doctors and medical trainers to examine the mechanics of pitchers of different body types.
Or, you can just take my word that I’ve read a bunch of research that has already done those things and I’m just trying to help relate that back to some people who might be concerned about a couple of the pitchers on our staff.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
The injury concern
comes from doubling your workload from one season to the next.
He threw ~120 innings last season and if he doubles that…
oh there’s Wonko
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
Research has shown
That minor league innings are not the same as major league innings in reference to workload. The prevailing theory is that players exert a little more when they are playing in big league games that count.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
?
Whose prevailing theory is this? Yours?
by 81homegames on Feb 19, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
Nope
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Can I plz get a Wonko wrap-up?
Well he open the season in the starting five and will he live through the season?
Wonko?? Really
Not sure Wonko’s change up is ready for the rotation
"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"
I have no clue
I’m no expert. I’m just able to spot an “expert” faking it when I see one.
I'm the first person to admit that I'm wrong about a lot of things, but I'm going to be the last person to admit I'm wrong about what we're currently talking about.
Bolts from the Blue - General Manager: It is what it isn't
Spud Norris
looks like a potato.
Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play
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