Pre-Season Padres Predictions prove that we aren't psychic

by jbox on Oct 4, 2010 10:27 AM PDT

Back on March 31, 2010 before the season started we looked into the distant future trying to use our psychic abilities to predict the end result of the Padres season. As we do each year we'll look back at these predictions to see if we have a witch among us, then we'll burn said witch.

I remember that most experts and their simulations seemed to agree that the Padres win total would be approximately 71 and unanimously said that they'd finish in last place... in all of baseball. I seem to even remember a blogger skipping the Padres when doing his NL West preview because they weren't even worth talking about.

Padres fans though were more optimistic. As a whole, 38% of Gaslamp Ballers believed that the Padres would finish with between 81-85 wins. 19% correctly guessed the win total would be between 85-90.

Only two Gaslamp Ballers, Mad_Villan and BeantownComPadre predicted the Padres record correctly. BeantownComPadre probably was the closest with his other predictions, so he is clearly a witch. That's quite a feat considering there were a few too many people who weren't able to predict that there would be 162 games in the season.

Dex and I considered starting a psychic website years before we started a Padres blog, but neither of us displayed much psychic ability this year. We both picked the Padres to finish 2nd in the NL West. I was correct that the Giants would win. Neither of us were very close with our win totals. I chose 85 wins and Dex chose 83. Dex had a more bold prediction up his sleeve when he predicted this to be the "Best Season Eva!" on live TV while Jonny Dub "begged to differ".

In any case, take the time to review your predictions from earlier in the season and try to fine tune your psychic skills and tune out those voices in your head that helped you with this year's predictions.

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
San Francisco	92	70	.567	0	Won 1
San Diego	90	72	.555	2	Lost 1
Colorado	83	79	.512	9	Lost 8
Los Angeles	80	82	.493	12	Won 2
Arizona	65	97	.401	27	Lost 2

(updated 10.4.2010 at 9:09 AM PDT)

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Comments

I had

76-86, with a fourth place finish.
So I really underestimated them. Despite after going to a few spring training games and leaving being really confident in the team. I guess I am a bit of a pessimist when it comes to the Padres.

I did correctly predict that San Fran. would win the division. I thought Chris Young would be traded before the season was over and I thought there would be one Padre All-Star. Clairvoyant I am not.

This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman

by Padres_Hobo on Oct 4, 2010 11:13 AM PDT reply actions

Predicted Padres second

But I thought the Dodgers would take it with all their talent.

Loss yesterday still stings, I’m just hoping next year we can build on this year and take anoter step in the right direction. The expectations will be much higher next year and hopefully we’re all right.

Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts

by mrbarneydangles on Oct 4, 2010 12:07 PM PDT reply actions

PhantomPretender

was good too..predicting a three way tie (that almost happened)

Don't hate the game, hate the nerds!

by thenerdhater on Oct 4, 2010 12:14 PM PDT reply actions

ugh

That streak column in the standings is depressing to look at.

by SD Jake on Oct 4, 2010 12:32 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Rockies losing 8 in a row?

I like it

"Get your hopes up. That's what hopes are for by the way, to get up. You don't get your hopes down, you get your hopes up." -Jeffrey Tambor

by Ketchup on Oct 4, 2010 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd like it a little better if it hadn't started against the Giants.

by Darklighter on Oct 4, 2010 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I predicted 83-79 with a third place finish.

At least I knew what it would take to finish third.

I BELIEVE.

by LetBurroughsPitch on Oct 4, 2010 12:45 PM PDT reply actions

OH SNAP

My name is Guybrush Threepwood, and I'm a mighty pirate.
"How appropriate! You fight like a cow!"
Faceless slider-tossing goofs FTW.

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 4, 2010 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions

I think I was pretty accurate

"Get your hopes up. That's what hopes are for by the way, to get up. You don't get your hopes down, you get your hopes up." -Jeffrey Tambor

by Ketchup on Oct 4, 2010 1:16 PM PDT reply actions

Division overall was a lot better than expected

I think my prediction was based on the idea that we (the West) wouldn’t be able to keep up with the Central and the East.

by Dex on Oct 4, 2010 1:29 PM PDT reply actions

I'm surprised that mine look pretty good

I was right or somewhat right about these
1. Anthony Gwynn Jr. won’t be as bad as you think.
2. Injuries will be relatively minimal.
4. A-Gone will have a solid year, but not as good as ’09, but he will have more RBIs and less walks. He will finish the year as a Padre.
5. The team will finish in 2nd or 3rd and almost make the playoffs.
6. The Bullpen will be our saviors.
7. Since the team will be doing well, there will be no major trades, for good p.r.
8. We will be entertained.

And pretty much wrong with this one:
3. Blanks, Headley & Venable will significantly improve.

by recorddigger on Oct 4, 2010 2:26 PM PDT reply actions

I thought Headly would break out this year too

Instead I was really disappointed.

This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman

by Padres_Hobo on Oct 4, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Headley did.

My name is Guybrush Threepwood, and I'm a mighty pirate.
"How appropriate! You fight like a cow!"
Faceless slider-tossing goofs FTW.

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 4, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions

Yup.

I considered making a comment about how his (adjusted) offensive numbers this year were 15% higher than the average player, or that his defense was 11 runs above average according to UZR and 20 runs above average according to DRS…

But whatever.

(Anyway, I think “Beyond the Boxscore” had an article on him a while back.)

"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG

by TheGrandHatching on Oct 4, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions

His fielding was gold glove caliber.

17.4 runs over average. Best of all third basemen in the major leagues.

My name is Guybrush Threepwood, and I'm a mighty pirate.
"How appropriate! You fight like a cow!"
Faceless slider-tossing goofs FTW.

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 4, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions

but he was still batting 8th at the end of the year

by recorddigger on Oct 4, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions

He had a rough September.

Overall his season batting numbers were slightly above average. He’s a very streaky player. His gold glove defense made him one of the most valuable third basemen in baseball.

My name is Guybrush Threepwood, and I'm a mighty pirate.
"How appropriate! You fight like a cow!"
Faceless slider-tossing goofs FTW.

by Zach (maestro876) on Oct 4, 2010 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions

you're right

and he held himself together during his slump and really contributed defensively down the stretch. Headley and Venable HAVE to improve at the plate next year. I’d be happy if their plate discipline just improved and they wouldn’t strike out as much. I hear Blanks won’t be back until the All-Star break. That’s rough.

by recorddigger on Oct 4, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Yea, I think the rough Sep leaves a sour taste right now

but all in all I was happy with Headley. I forget how young he is but he still has plenty of room to improve and I believe he will.

Mat Latos is the real deal...Go Lakers, Pads, and Bolts

by mrbarneydangles on Oct 4, 2010 7:32 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess I expected less strike outs and more HRs out of him. Not even thing about defense, no doubt he exceeded my expectations there. Batting not so much.

This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman

by Padres_Hobo on Oct 4, 2010 4:31 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Headley is going to try and put on more muscle in the off-season. I hope it helps his power numbers.

But I hope it doesn’t impact his defense. He made some plays that would have made Kouz’s HoF glove crap in its proverbial pants.

Ehhhh, I don't deserve a signature...

by sdchicken on Oct 4, 2010 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes and no

Your predictions were also pretty vague. Where’s the qualitative prediction? Show us you’re psychic next year!

by jbox on Oct 4, 2010 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Qualitative?

Or quantitative?

"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG

by TheGrandHatching on Oct 4, 2010 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

quantitative

don’t correct me in front of recorddigger!

by jbox on Oct 4, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions

But it makes our day.

I need new pants.

by jodes0405 on Oct 4, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions

yes, but all psychics are vague. That's the artform.

and you have to admit, my vague predictions were pretty right-on!

by recorddigger on Oct 4, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions

I was gonna ask if you were a politician...

by ABY on Oct 4, 2010 8:31 PM PDT up reply actions

How well did I do?

I BELIEVE

by Hormel on Oct 4, 2010 3:52 PM PDT reply actions

I was off by 15

75-87 but I did predict the Giants would win the division and that Gonzo would lead the division

Understanding is a three edged sword; your side, their side and the truth.
Bolttalk Podcast - the Best Chargers show on the Web!

by TheAxManCometh on Oct 4, 2010 4:08 PM PDT reply actions

I was off by four games and I predicted the Giants to win the division

Wish I had been wrong and we wouldn’t have had that ten game losing streak. I could’ve gone for a couple of more weeks of this.

"I'll tell you about it because I am here and you are distant."

by The Kipper on Oct 4, 2010 4:12 PM PDT reply actions

I don't remember what my prediction was

…or if I even had one? It’s hard to predict the future when you can’t remember what you did to today! I blame the jameson.

What I am seeing though, is an awful lot of GLB’ers foreseeing this giants win. :/
Let the finger pointing begin.

by ABY on Oct 4, 2010 8:37 PM PDT reply actions

My "best guess" was 87 wins and 2nd place behind the Giants.

Not bad, but Jed has a gleam in his eye, and I’ll wait for the changes before I make any 2011 predictions.

For now, I’m giving in to hate. the Padres would still be alive if the Phils had beaten the Braves. Down a run in the ninth, they made three outs on strikeouts – all looking. Didn’t even swing the bat. I suspect it was on purpose, hoping for the 3-way tie that would have had any team they met in the playoffs playing at least one extra game, with their rotation messed up. So I’m blaming the Phils, and rooting against them.

by wegotballsley on Oct 5, 2010 11:44 AM PDT reply actions