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Around the Mission: 8/1 Padres Links

Jake Peavy's guitar is packed and his locker is unoocupied in the San Diego Padres locker room after Peavy was traded to the Chicago White Sox  Friday, July 31, 2009, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

3 months ago: Jake Peavy's guitar is packed and his locker is unoocupied in the San Diego Padres locker room after Peavy was traded to the Chicago White Sox Friday, July 31, 2009, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Poll
A day after the Peavy trade, what stage of grief are you in?
Denial
5 votes
Anger
13 votes
Bargaining
12 votes
Depression
11 votes
Acceptance
89 votes

130 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments

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I would be curious to know

how the Friar Forcast came up with the Padres receiving “between $10M and $20M in value” for Peavy.

by strummer on Aug 1, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Looking at just Poreda's MORP (Market Value Over Replacement)

For the next 5 years, that alone is about $7 million. And that’s based on a very conservative projection that he ends up being a slightly below league average starter.

Major league ready players are worth a lot more than they get paid.

Peavy’s MORP over the next 3 years is just a tick under $30 million on the other hand.

Clayton Richard’s projection is less flattering than Poreda’s and is only worth ~$2 million over the next 5 years. So I can start to see the $10 million side of it. $20 million only would be true if things break right for the Padres with these young guys. I think Poreda and Richard are probably better than those projections from Baseball Prospectus, so it I’d give it a 50% chance that they get over $20 million of value from the trade. However, they also got payroll flexibility with Peavy’s salary gone, so we’ll still have to see what kind of value they get out of that.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Aug 1, 2009 2:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I think I understand it. They are putting the dollar value of a league average pitcher at a little under $2 million per year.

by strummer on Aug 1, 2009 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I guess the hope is

They use that salary relief to extend Adrian and sign guys like Tate et al.

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Aug 1, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Bell and Adrian

are still goners. It is just a matter of when.

by strummer on Aug 1, 2009 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bell maybe

Adrian I don’t think so.

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Aug 1, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

The Peavy trade solidified it for me. I think they felt like they could only have one player making that kind of money moving forward and they chose Adrian. Also I dont think they will get the same kind of offers in the offseason than they did at the deadline.

by Steve (Grey Suit) on Aug 1, 2009 6:55 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bell's value

If (when) the Padres are out of it come next deadline and Bell is still pitching at an All Star caliber level I think his value will be highest. For a lot of GMs that will solidify him in their minds as an elite level closer and maybe they’ll give up the type of players KT was asking for this year. If that’s the case, then he’ll get dealt. Short of that though and I think KT would see it as selling low, otherwise he’d already be gone.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Aug 1, 2009 11:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

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