Typically result in a higher BABIP. Same with line drives. Flyball pitchers (like Jake) may have a BABIP lower than .300, but will be more likely to give up HRs, which don’t count against BABIP.

Even if Cla were getting hitters to ground out softly with regularity in 2006, being able to do that with any consistency over a multiyear period has never been done in the history of baseball. So, while it may have appeared to be a skill, it most likely was somewhat skill-based and mostly luck based. If he had normal luck instead of good luck, those balls would have been hit harder with more regularity and thus found some holes with more regularity.

Taking a look at fangraphs, his GB% in 2006 was close to what it’s been in later years. It was at it’s highest in 2007. A quick glance will let you notice that his LD and FB percentages are at all time highs in 2009, but his HR rate is way way down vs his career norms. Which means that he is actually getting lucky that this year he’s not giving up more HRs. That could change in the second half. Yikes.

It’s also interesting that his 2006 and 2007 splits for K/9, LD%, GB%, FB% and even InfieldFB% are roughly the same. Which does seem to point to the ideas that 2006 either resulted in more balls right at people or poorer contact on the balls hit. His 2008 and 2009 splits also seem to match up, and — as I eluded to previously — the main reason he has a lower ERA is that he’s giving up less HRs. He’s also getting less strikeouts.

This data also amounts to only 237 2/3 IP. For a starting pitcher that’s less than 2 seasons of data. So, the fluctuations are not that meaningful. If you took a starter’s splits and broken them down into quarter seasons you would probably see similar fluctuations. His numbers basically amount to a starter pitching lights out for 6 or 7 outings, then having some bad outings mixed with a few good outings mixed with a few adequate outings for about 25 outings. In the end you end up with 14-12 with a 3.41 ERA for a groundball heavy pitcher (67.5%) that strikes out 6.25 hitters per 9 innings in 237 IP. And that results in a BABIP of .317, which is about what you would expect for this type of pitcher.