Just tear it down - a trade plan for the San Diego Padres

by TheAxManCometh on Jul 24, 2009 10:09 AM PDT

Basically I've been thinking of the need to just tear the entire club down and start over from scratch. Its abundantly clear we don't have much in the way of talent besides a few key players. So a fire sale as well as a firing of key front office figures would have to be involved. At the position we are now, it'll be at least two years before we are competing. So frankly I say fire Black and most of the coaching staff and trade who we have now for some young players who are cheaper and can grow.

Fire Bud Black - he might not be totally responsible for this debacle but I don't think he's capable of motivating or bringing along our young players. Can most of his staff as well outside of Darren Balsley.

Trade Jake Peavy to the Milwaukee Brewers for Alcides Escobar, Brett Lawrie, and a pitching prospect not named Jeremy Jefferies.

Peavy will only go to National League teams, here's one that needs pitching. What we get back is their top prospect who's an incredible shortstop, a catcher/3B hybrid with ridiculous power and another pitcher. You could put Escobar at SS and move Cabrera (who i like) back to his natural 2B position. This would give us incredible range in the middle of the diamond combined with two guys who can flat out fly. A 1-2-3 of Cabrera, Gwynn, Escobar could run around the bases all day long. Lawrie has taken to catching better then 3B defensively, give him time and I think he could be good along with providing pop at a position we haven't had much of. At the very least he provides serious competition to Hundley (unknown) and Canham (I don't like). As for a pitching prospect, well, I just think Jefferies is a bonehead for getting busted twice with marijuana. So pick your pitcher to fill in.

Trade Heath Bell to the Florida Marlins for Sean West (and maybe Jose Ceda)

You want some power? How about a pitcher in High A compared roughly to Randy Johnson? He's big, he throws a mean fastball and has a decent slider and changeup. I think he could be another Mat Latos. And Bell, i do like him but let's face it, he has high value now and he's not used as much. Besides lots of people are clamoring for Schribner to be brought up and I agree he might have the talent to close immediately. With Ceda, if we could pry him, we get a guy back who we didn't know enough about when we sent him to the Cubs. Now we have someone who could close in AAA and could work as another arm or set up guy in the bullpen. At the very least he'll provide a nice change of pace from Gregerson/Worrell/Mujica who don't have Ceda's pure power.

Trade Adrian Gonzalez to the Boston Red Sox for Clay Buccholz, Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson and another middle prospect

This one hurts because I like Gonzalez and it would take a massive haul like this to trade him. But I don't know how much higher his value could get and its clear the Red Soxs are lusting after Gonzalez, so why not take them for all their worth. I personally am not sure about Buccholz; For all the talk about his amazing make up and talent, he hasn't done much at the major leagues when he gets brought up. Yes he threw a no-hitter BUT since then he hasn't made many good starts. So i'm wary but he probably has to be in the mix. Masterson is a workhorse San Diegan pitcher who is good at control, has a unique delivery and I like alot. I think at the minimum he could be a great reliever and at best could be in the mix for the bottom of our staff. Bowden is another control specialist who could truly thrive in Petco when he's pitched in some atrocious pitching environments in New England. I think he could be in the middle-back of the staff and again be a good pitcher. Lars Anderson - a powerhitting 1B - would be moved to LF (which he has played more often and better then Blanks). If you disagree with me, hey that's cool. Either way we get a patient hitter who can hit the ball very well. We definitely will need some more hitting after Gonzalez goes and he's the best they have. As for another prospect, I don't know who but take your pick.

Trade Kevin Kouzmanoff to anyone who'll take him for whatever they'll give us

I don't care who gets him and I don't care what they get for him. I've liked Kouz for a long while but its time to go. Move Headley back to 3B and go from there.

LINEUP

2B Cabrera
CF Gwynn
SS Escobar
1B Blanks
3B Headley
LF Anderson
C Hundley
RF Venable

BENCH

OF: Macias
INF: Salazar
INF: Gonzalez/Stansberry
OF: Baxter
C: Alfonzo

ROTATION
1. Young (Experience)
2. Latos
3. Buccholz
4. Bowden
5. Stauffer/Masterson/Correria

BULLPEN
CL: Schribner/Ceda
SU: Ceda/Gregerson
P: Worrell
P: Mujica
P: Gregerson
P: Perdomo
P: Adams

We're definitely younger and I think we supplement our current young guns with a massive wave of young talent. This at least would be more fun to watch then current Padres.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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Lets do it. Pull the trigger!

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by AIChief on Jul 24, 2009 11:37 AM PDT reply actions

I like it

I think we could get a few more B-Type prospects or high-ceiling guys from the Brewers for Peavy, but overall it looks good.

I am not sure he BoSox would give that much up for adrian though.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 24, 2009 11:46 AM PDT reply actions

Sorry to rain on your parade

But Jake is hurt and therefore untradeable and even when he returns he’s going to have an injury prone label.

Bell will be arbitration eligible and doesn’t fit the Marlins tastes, plus Sean West is a big part of their rotation plans for the future since their other guys are getting too expensive.

Red Sox just traded for a 1B. They won’t be trading for another. Plus, they are going to give up that much and I don’t think the Padres should settle for so little. Also, Anderson can’t play LF, you’d be better off with Blanks.

Finally, that team doesn’t look that much better, even from a talent perspective. I don’t see that team competing anytime soon. You’ve basically swapped out on offense Anderson and Escobar for Gonzalez and whoever our 2B of the future is. And pitching-wise you’ve swapped out Peavy for Buccholz and Bowden. Defensively, you’ve lost Adrian’s glove while making LF worse defensively and the 2B//SS position is upgraded defensively. The only thing I see that’s really been achieved here is that the payroll is lower. I guess the bonus is that Lawrie would be on the way, but it seems like a lot riding on him to be an All-Star catcher to make this work.

Speaking of All Stars, which of the players on this roster ends up being a consistent All Star-caliber performer? I just don’t see it. I know I’m supposed to be okay with trading off our top assets to get younger players (what with my penchant for rational or emotional player management), but it seems to me you end up with a better team if you keep our top players (basically because they are still so affordable the combined salary of Adrian/Peavy/Heat plus our other players is still around $40 mill) and try to surround them with the young cheap players that we are developing.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions

I would be happier with these things

if it included keeping Peavy. Jake + Latos + Buccholz + Correia/Stauffer/Young/Random FA seems a pretty decent starting rotation.

I’m of the opinion that the club would be best served by fielding a team with outstanding pitching, and an offense based around high OBP, high BA, and speed. That would embrace our park’s strengths and not play into its weaknesses (getting hitters that are slow but hit for power—power that doesn’t work in PETCO). Our pitching staff and defense would keep us in every game, and having high OBP and BA guys with lots of speed would be an ideal offense for a big pitcher’s park.

Course, there are problems tons of problems with this that I haven’t thought of.

Love we shine like a burning star
We're falling from the sky tonight

by Zach (maestro876) on Jul 24, 2009 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions

No offense, but

An offense based around high OBP, high BA, and speed would embrace every park’s strengths. That being said, if you got a bunch of slow, High OBP Power hitters and put them in Petco they would do very well. Also, the batting average really doesn’t matter. The higher your OBP, the less often you make outs. The less often you make outs, the more runs you score. It does, however, make it easier to have a high OBP if you can hit for a high BA.

The main problem with the strategy of getting these is this: everyone wants these players. Simple economics means that a commodity in demand will increase the price. So, of course, these players are quite expensive and the Padres don’t have the revenue to compete for these talents. Or, from another prospective, if we are talking about drafting these players, then these types of players go higher in the draft. From 2005-2008, the Padres didn’t draft very high so we settled for the Antonellis and Headleys and Deckers and Dykstras and Forsythes, etc who had some of these qualities, but not all of them. Before that, the team simply didn’t have the proper infrastructure in place to evaluate amateur players (a problem which rests solely on John Moores’ shoulders).

I guess what I’m saying is that the strategy you mention is everyone’s strategy (okay, maybe not the Royals). The Padres are trying to do the best they can with the resources they have, but are severely handicapped by the mismanagement that occurred in the early 2000s and the ensuing push in the mid 2000s to make the team competitive without developing the farm system first.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

I knew there was something I wasn't thinking of.

And you’re probably right. I was just trying to find a way to make our park play for us, rather than against us as it always seems to.

Love we shine like a burning star
We're falling from the sky tonight

by Zach (maestro876) on Jul 24, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions

It just seems like it plays against us

Because we have bad players. For example, Kouz is not a cleanup hitter in any ballpark. But, yet, with our team he seems like one of the better options there. Or, even if Headley reached more of his promise, he still doesn’t seem like a #5 hitter on a good club. Let’s say he could hit like .270/.340/.480 (that seems about where we’d like him to be at) where would that put him in the Phillies lineup? 6th? 7th? Jayson Werth has better numbers than that. The Phillies are actually a good example. They come in here and beat us around and they aren’t really built on speed. Sure, Victorino and Rollins both can run, but as I recall, they haven’t really needed to when they play here. They are just full of good hitters who also know how to take and walk and drive balls when they need to. That can work at Petco, you just need players that can do it.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Couple of things

1. Jake has some injury trouble but he’s still a pretty affordable ace, that’ll make him attractive still to other teams. He’s untradeable NOW but that doesn’t mean he can’t be worth alot in the off-season showing he’s healthy. If anything that’s the point of not rushing him back – this year is worthless and we need to think of next year.
2. LaRouche, whom the Red Sox acquired, is a FA at the end of the year. So I agree there won’t be a Gonzalez deal by the deadline BUT no reason one couldn’t be done in the off-season.
3. Bell I semi agree but the Marlins need a closer to be competitive, Bell being cheap and effective, so its 50/50
4. Anderson played outfield for team USA and played outfield in the minors for a few stretches. I said basically whomever can handle it better goes out there, blanks or anderson.
5. Defensive here’s how i see it, my lineup to the current one
1B. Downgrade – I agree 100% that Gonzalez plays better defense then either Blanks or Anderson
2B. Upgrade – Cabrera has great range and speed, he’d be better then Eckstein or Gonzalez/LROD/Whatever
SS. Upgrade – Escobar’s the best defensive SS in the minors today and no one doubts he can play major league defense today.
3B. Upgrade – Headley’s better then Kouz
LF. Push/Upgrade – gets Headley out there and Blanks has shown he can do it and Anderson has done it for stretches at a time
CF Push – same person
RF Push – Venable, whatever
C Push – Hundley, same

So its not as ‘horrible’ as you make it appear, and though it’d be cheaper it’d be full of some of the youngest and top talent from lots of teams minor league systems. It would be a talented team. Capable of challenging the dodgers? You could make a case if everyone comes along but probably not. Better then right now? Absolutely. Better then if we kept our biggest performers and tried to push our minor leagues or find ‘cheap vets’ next year? Heck yeah I think it would be.

by TheAxManCometh on Jul 24, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions

I guess my main worry

Is that your putting a lot of faith in players that another team developed and was still willing to trade. Usually, these things only work out where a couple of the guys you get back work out. I’m worried that you are giving up bonafide All Star players for guys that will probably amount to average major leaguers or worse.

I think that’s why Towers keeps talking about trading in the offseason, so he doesn’t have to gamble on prospects. Kind of like how the Peavy to the Braves deal focused on Escobar who was a fairly established major leaguer. As good of prospects as Escobar and Buccholz, and to a lesser extent, Bowden and Anderson it’s pretty risky to need all of them to pan out to see the trades as an upgrade.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Gonzalez trade

You have a good idea on trading Gonzalez to the Red Sox, however, you stretched his value a little bit…you can get the following for him DelCarmen, Anderson and either Bowden or Masterson ..3 for 1 and 3 very good players who are financially attractive to the Padres…Take the deal!

by Tony1Putt on Jul 24, 2009 2:51 PM PDT reply actions

See

That’s why this deal is bad. One side (Padres) wants to improve the club’s value by adding prospects and young players and the other (Red Sox) just wants to give us some scraps (no offense, those are good prospects, but I’m illustrating a point about giving up our cheap, productive, gold glove winning 1B).

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

If the red sox offer 'scraps' like that

then there’s no way Gonzalez is going to Boston. Its universally accepted he’s one of the best young cheap 1Bs out there and that any attempt to pry him away from SD would require the Texeira deal if not more. What you offered is crap, no chance he leaves San Diego for so little. Let’s not pretend that YOUR doing US the favor by taking Gonzalez off our hands – you desperately want a real 1B (Youkillis isn’t one) and you have to pay up to get it. Boston has the horses to get it done, will you actually do it or let your ego run amuck?

by TheAxManCometh on Jul 24, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Are you Theo Epstein?

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 24, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

They're just like f**king Cubs fans, aren't they?

by Drama on Jul 24, 2009 7:45 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Worse

At least Cubs fans know they are losers.

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 25, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions

Gimme Gimme Gimme

if we could make these trades happen id be thrilled

by 1210pads on Jul 24, 2009 2:57 PM PDT reply actions

I'm so excited....oh wait this didnt happen and we still suck eggs!

by Duke Street Kings on Jul 24, 2009 9:45 PM PDT reply actions

I think

Bucholz, Andersen, Masterson and two 2nd tier prospects is fair value for Gonzalez.
Other than that I agree with the original poster in his theory.
However I think SD should build around Peavy and Gonzalez because they basically aren’t going to get another Gonzalez EVER.
A superstar who wants to play in the most pitching friendly park in baseball and never complains about his lack of lineup protection and is signed at far below his actual value.

by Ohpityme on Jul 25, 2009 6:22 AM PDT reply actions

It might be fair value

But it’s not enough value to trade him.

The second part I agree with. Unless the Red Sox want to include Lester with that fair value you mentioned. Then I may recant. (What do the Red Sox care anyway if they lose Lester? They can just sign Lackey in the offseason. See? He’s totally expendable. Totally.)

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 25, 2009 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Trade Kouz and Bell

Especially Bell; they’re many teams in the hunt that need a solid reliever. Plus, there isn’t that many good ones available so the Padres can get good value from him. Peavy won’t be traded until the offseason. I’ll be shocked if they trade Gonzo.

by denimem on Jul 26, 2009 12:04 AM PDT reply actions

After losing to the nationals

in embarassing fashion, if anything, we should be pushing harder for a fire sale

by TheAxManCometh on Jul 26, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions

No

Sign Gonzo to a 3 yr extension in offseason, bring in the fences in right center. Expand Gonzalez beach. Build a Gonzalez pier extending onto the playing field.

They owe it to us to keep Adrian and spend some money on farm system and major league talent, instead of auctioning him off.

by Billy Almon on Jul 27, 2009 7:28 AM PDT reply actions

ouch, are we really gonna become the Pirates?

came across this on Twitter baseball brief that says we are

http://mrsportsblog.wordpress.com/2009/07/30/trade-adrian-gonzalez-only-if-the-padres-are-the-west-coast-version-of-the-pirates/

by cucamonga on Jul 30, 2009 10:15 PM PDT reply actions

If we trade Gonzales to Boston.....

Towers needs to stick with his statement of the other team overpaying. With Boston, I would like to see Bucholz, Masterson, Lars, BARD!!!!!!!, and Lowrie.

We tried Heath Bell to the Marlins but they wouldn’t give us Andre Miller and Sean West (I like the thought of that thoug).

I am not in the Headley over Kouz camp. Headley has never impressed me, and I really don’t think he will ever become anything in the MLB. I gaurantee you he won’t play as good a 3rd base as Kouz, won’t touch Kouz power numbers or RBI’s. People forget that every year, Kouz HR and RBI have improved. He is on pace to do that again. If he could learn to walk a little more (2BB this week, I almost fainted) and have a 1st half like he always does the second half…we would not be talking about getting rid of Kouz.

I think the best plan would be first and foremost….Moorad- Give us back out 75-80 million dollar payroll. Then, you need some OF, preferably 2. I would focus on 2 out of Bay, Winn, Ankiel, and Werth.

You need one mid level FA starter…I like D. Davis.

Trade Headley to a Seattle or Chi WS fo a lefty reliever…Thornton type guy (Or just sign Thornton in FA.

I like the though of a vet catcher with Hundley, but how about one who can hit? I believe Molina is available.

Don’t trade Peavy, Bell, or Adrian.

You come back with a lineup yopu can afford for 75-80 mil looking like this:

C-Molina
1b-Gonzales
2b-Eckstein (The guy is scrappy and comes through when we need him…keep him until you have a home grown replacement),
SS-Cabrera
3b-Kouz
LF-Bay
CF-Gwynn
RF-Winn

SP-
Peavy
Young
Correia
Latos
D. Davis/ Gallagher

Cl-
Bell

SU-
Adams

MR-
Gregerson
Mujica
Burke
Thornton
Perdomo/Worrell/Gallagher

Beanch-
Blanks 1b or of
Hundley c
Salazar util
Macias or Venable or Huffman of
Edgar or Luis IF

You could have this lineup with the old payroll of 75-80 mil. Good speed, good pop, good mix of vets and young guys, solid pitching staff, solid bullpen.

It all come down to Moorad bringing back that mid level 7-80 mil payroll and making the moves. (It protects are growing farm system as well).

by Love The Russians77 on Jul 31, 2009 10:42 AM PDT reply actions