Strasburg pt. 2?

by 'Eaters on Jul 23, 2009 12:05 PM PDT

While perusing the Worldwide Leader (I know, I know) I noticed a link to this story about the Natinals and Strasburg being far away from a deal, so much so that the final outcome is in doubt. Obviously, this news needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it's likely just a negotiating tactic by Boras. But, there are two reasons I'm holding out hope that Stras doesn't get signed by the Aug. 17 deadline:

1. He is asking for an insane amount of money, which is accompanied by a certain amount of risk. Any time you offer a player that much money upfront, especially one who hasn't pitched in the major leagues yet, teams will hesitate. Especially financially strapped teams like the Natinals.

2. He could intentionally sabotage this process to avoid playing for the Natinals. This is suspect, and frankly more than a little stupid if you ask me, but superstar college athletes have a history of not wanting to play for a franchise they deem to be inept. Like Eli Manning. While I don't think Stras will reject all offers out of hand, I think it may make him less desperate to get a deal done––as in more likely to walk away from an offer he doesn't like so he could try again with another franchise.

Now, like I said, I'm not exactly holding my breath here, but this is something to keep an eye on. Because if Strasburg returns to the draft–and we'll know by Aug. 18–we are back in the mix. Because we suck.

Arizona	40	55	.421	21	20-30	20-25	416	463	-47	Lost 1	4-6
Kansas City	37	57	.394	23.5	22-30	15-27	371	467	-96	Lost 9	1-9
San Diego	37	58	.389	24	24-26	13-32	346	477	-131	Lost 4	2-8
Cleveland	37	58	.389	24	20-28	17-30	469	524	-55	Lost 1	4-6
Washington	28	66	.298	32.5	18-31	10-35	401	522	-121	Won 2	3-7

Obviously if/when the Natinals finish last again and pick first, they are unlikely to try their hand with Strasburg again. To fail twice would be monumentally embarrassing. That leave us in a prime position to fail it out with the Indians, Royals and Diamondbacks. This would be a tremendous splash signing for Moorad as he begins to put his fingerprints on the team. Additionally, if Strasburg returns to the 2010 draft, there will be added pressure for him to sign with the team that picks him. Returning for a third draft seems out of the question.

The point is just to keep an eye on the contract negotiations, even though real news is likely going to be scarce until right before the deadline. (And also, I want to be on the record as first to bring up this idea.)

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

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Better tell the team not to win 5 of 6 over the Nationals this year.

Love we shine like a burning star
We're falling from the sky tonight

by Zach (maestro876) on Jul 23, 2009 12:17 PM PDT reply actions

If Strasburg doesn't sign

then don’t you we will have trouble signing him if we land him in next year’s draft? Its true that he most likely will ask for less money, but it won’t make a big difference. It would be awesome if he joins this team, but we might have to open some room

by denimem on Jul 23, 2009 12:40 PM PDT reply actions

Don't believe ESPN

Boras, Strasburg and the Nationals all want to work out a deal. ESPN is making up a story where there isn’t one.

I happened to be watching ESPN the day they “broke” this story and the headline originally was “No indication that Strasburg will sign”. So their story was, they had no story. So they eventually changed the headline to make it look like he wasn’t going to sign and threw in some old claims about going to Japan or Independent ball. Boras knows that not signing rarely turns out well for his clients and that waiting an extra season to start playing means waiting an extra year to get the next big paycheck. On top of that, Boras always waits until the last minute (or later, as was the case with Alvarez last year) to sign. So, the fact that there isn’t any indication that a player will sign is equivalent to saying that the player’s agent is probably Scott Boras.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 23, 2009 12:43 PM PDT reply actions

Even if you ignore the ESPN story completely (which is understandable)

this is a historic contract Strasburg and Boras are seeking. There has never been anything close to this before. Dice-K had a few similarities, but he had still pitched pro ball and it was open to multiple bidders, leading the Sox to bid unnecessarily high.

Even before the Natinals made him their pick on draft day, getting a deal worked out was definitely not a done deal. Natinals fans have always had good reason to be nervous that he wouldn’t sign. And holding him back for next year’s draft isn’t going to significantly hurt his draft value, he can still play competitive pro ball (unlike college football players), he’ll still be the top talent on the board and he’ll still get millions and millions.

by 'Eaters on Jul 23, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Its definetly not out of the realm of possiblity

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 23, 2009 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Yup, this is the gist of the post.

and the reason I posted it.

by 'Eaters on Jul 23, 2009 2:36 PM PDT up reply actions

What about Bryce Harper?

Can we go for dead last and just sign him?
http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1156215/index.htm

by TJB on Jul 23, 2009 1:55 PM PDT reply actions

Bryce Harper

He’ll probably be the top player available in the 2010 draft (barring a Strasburg return visit), but scouts say that he’s not the prospect of other top #1 picks. He’ll simply be the best available. Strasburg, however, was one of those top guys. Possibly the best pitching prospect in the draft ever.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 23, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Let me re-word part of that

but scouts say that he’s not quite the same level of prospect as other top #1 picks.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 23, 2009 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions

we need a catcher

but id still take Stras over Harper anyday

by 1210pads on Jul 23, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

How bad are the Nats

I seriously have a hard time imagining having a team worst that the Padres right now…let alone 9 games back…..Really?

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 23, 2009 1:59 PM PDT reply actions

That's a whole lot of "ifs" to even be in a position to draft Strasburg

I just don’t see it. I’d love it if it did, but it would be real hard.

by JollyWaffle on Jul 23, 2009 2:04 PM PDT reply actions

It's not that unlikely

He will probably sign but if he doesn’t there is a really really good chance we will be able to draft him next June.

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 23, 2009 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions

assuming it falls through with the Nats, what makes you think the Padres would be in a position to commit that much money to a pitcher? I know we will be dealing a lot of guys this offseason, and some expensive contracts will be flushed, but I just don’t see us putting up that kind of money for anyone.

by soulSD on Jul 23, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions

I think it will put Moorad in a position to make a big splash

I think it could happen

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 23, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions

Is the money even that big?

Let’s say that Boras wants something crazy like $30 million for Strasburg to sign. Even if he did want that he knows that there aren’t many teams that eat that cost as a one time signing bonus. So, he’s going to have to spread it out over 5 years. Since minor leaguers and first and second year players make a very small amount compared to that, you are essentially getting a player that makes $6 million a year, plus some more once he hits arbitration. Given the kind of talent Strasburg is, you’ll probably be getting at least a league average pitcher for that price with the chance that you could be getting an even better pitcher by his 3rd or 4th year. The Padres very recently paid $10 million for the similar services of Greg Maddux, $5 million for Randy Wolf and something similar for David Wells.

Basically, what I’m saying is that unless the numbers are astronomically higher than what I’ve mentioned, you’re getting a pretty darn good deal that pretty much everyone except the Marlins can’t pass up.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 23, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions

hmm

I am just leary of “can’t miss prospects”.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 23, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I've seen him pitch in person probably 20 times

He is for real.

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 23, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions

I know

but we have all heard that before…I say its true less than 50% of the time.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 23, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions

That's not true

Any scout you talk to will say they’ve never seen anything like him before

Fire Bud Black!

by Sam (sdsuaztec4) on Jul 23, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions

People were doubting LeBron too

While the guys that were paid to scout said he was legit. It’s funny now to laugh at those silly people.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 23, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Actually, it was funny then too.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 23, 2009 6:50 PM PDT up reply actions

2003 NBA vs MLB Draft - don't even compare...

When you look back, it shows you how hard it is to pick good players from the draft…in any sport – especially baseball. Strasburg is anything but a shoo-in.

NBA 2003
1. Cleveland LeBron James
2. Detroit (from Memphis) Darko Milicic
3. Denver Carmelo Anthony
4. Toronto Chris Bosh
5. Miami Dwyane Wade
6. LA Clippers Chris Kaman
7. Chicago Kirk Hinrich
8. Milwaukee (from Atlanta) T.J. Ford
9. New York Michael Sweetney
10. Washington Jarvis Hayes

MLB Draft 2003
Tampa Draft#:1 Delmon Young Position:RF
BrewersDraft#:2 Rickie Weeks Position:2B
Detroit Draft#:3 Kyle Sleeth Position:RHP
San Diego Draft#:4 Timothy Stauffer Position:RHP
Kansas City Draft#:5 Christopher Lubanski Position:CF
Chi. Cubs Draft#:6 Ryan Harvey Position:CF
Baltimore Draft#:7 Nicholas Markakis Position:OF
Pittsburgh Draft#:8 Paul Maholm Position:LHP
Texas Draft#:9 John Danks Position:LHP
Colorado Draft#:10 Ian Stewart Position:3B

NFL 2003
1 Cincinnati Carson Palmer QB USC
2 Detroit Charles Rogers WR Michigan State
3 Houston Andre Johnson WR Miami (Fla.)
4 NY Jets Dewayne Robertson DT Kentucky
5 Dallas Terence Newman CB Kansas State
6 New Orleans Johnathan Sullivan DT Georgia
7 Jacksonville Byron Leftwich QB Marshall
8 Carolina Jordan Gross OT Utah
9 Minnesota Kevin Williams DT Oklahoma State
10 Baltimore Terrell Suggs DE Arizona State

More likely than not – the Nats will pay a lot of money for a bust.

"Quote me as saying I was mis-quoted."

Groucho Marx

by planetjeffy on Jul 24, 2009 3:46 AM PDT up reply actions

I don't know about "more likely than not"

While nothing is a sure thing, nothing about Strasburg has led me to believe has he a greater chance of failing than succeeding.

by 'Eaters on Jul 24, 2009 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions

You're missing the point

We aren’t talking about The Draft. We are talking about Stephen Strasburg. There is a difference between players. Not all top picks are equal. Some are better prospects than others. Stephen Strasburg is simply the best one ever. There is no comparison here with Delmon Young or Carson Palmer. They are simply not in his league. Both those players had known flaws that made the people picking them wary. Most top picks due. Strasburg has the least amount of those of any pitching prospect ever. You can’t just discard that by saying the draft is crapshoot. At some point you have to use some sort of evaluation.

Your statement “More likely than not – the Nats will pay a lot of money for a bust.” would be true if we were talking in general about the #1 overall pick. But, we are not. We are talking about a specific person that has scrutinized and evaluated by hundreds, if not thousands, of scouts that all agree that his chances of succeeding are the highest you could possibly have.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions

I just finished reading Outliers…which suggest that where he ends up has a bigger factor on if he will be a success than the individual.

I think he has a great shot at being a stud, given I seen him pitch live 3 times and was impress, but I am saying a lot can happen between now and his first CY Young award. Some are in his control and a lot of it is not.

That is why I don’t think a team that has limited resources can invest so much into a sure thing prospect. Sure the Yankees and BoSox can afford to give him $30M and if it works out as we think it should it would be awesome. If the 5%, 15% whatever the chance it does not, then they can recover and move on

Most other teams can’t recover from that. If the Nats have $30M to spend on signing draft picks, I say sign 6 to 10 really good interantional signings as you probbaly have a better organization chance.

This also gets into the fact it is baseball and not basketball. As great as an ace that Strasburgh can be, he is only a piece of the puzzle. He is great for a team that needs an ace to push them over the hump. But for the nats he is only going to pitch 14%of their innings (in a good year) and the other 86% of the innings they are going to suck.

Now if they sign Strasburgh and he dominates like he should, they probably should trade him for a Kings ransom ASAP.

If I was the GM, I say sign him, send him to low A ball and let him K the 1.5 batters an inning for 1 year then trade him for 8-10 top prospects.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 24, 2009 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions

When you add Strasburg to your rotation you can also drop your weakest link

So it can affect more than just the games he pitches. Plus affect on bullpen usage. I’m sure they wouldn’t mind the extra gate on his pitching days too.

by 'Eaters on Jul 24, 2009 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions

but

the Nats have more than one weak link.

If they had some solid 2-3 types and some good bullpen pieces that was just over worked, that is a different argument. But that have a mediocre to average lineup. Horrible defense, and 13 pitchers who are not even replacement levels. Plus you look at the farm system and there is no help on the way.

Put Stras on teams like the Twins, Braves, Mets, heck even the Royals and he makes thim conternders and Favorites.

Put him on the 2011 nats and they go 70-92.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 24, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions

But the alternative is not sign him

And get 1 draft pick next year. That’s still only 1 player to help the future team AND he’s an additional year away from making the big league team. I guess the other alternative, in hindsight, would have been to not take Strasburg, but again you’re only getting 1 player. The team is better off with Strasburg than without him regardless of the state of the rest of the franchise.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jul 24, 2009 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions

The point is:

My argument wasn’t not taking Strasburgh, its about not having a slotted drafted system and allowing a prospect holding a franchise hostage.

So you can argue that $30Mf or 5 years is a good bargain for the potential of Strasburgh, but the risk to him not hitting his potential makes it tough for teams that have limited resources. At least allow the Nationals to trade the rights to sign Strasburgh if they don’t want the monetary risk and you refuse to regulate amature signing.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 24, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't know

Once you start drafting players you know you can’t afford in hopes of selling their rights off to one of the few teams that can…well then big market teams own the market for free agents AND top prospects.

by 'Eaters on Jul 24, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions

that is why

I said we need a slotted system or at the very least allow them to trade the prospects, because right now the big market teams do control the amateure market.

"Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

by Ron Mexico on Jul 27, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions