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Our 2007 #1 Pick

In the spirit of the MLB draft and also as a tribute to today's performance by Nick Schmidt (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 Ks and a W) in Fort Wayne, I thought I'd talk about the left handed 23 year old pitcher.

Star-divide

Nick has had a good run recently. This is his 4th straight start where he's held the other team scoreless. In all 4 of those starts he allowed 0 or 1 BBs and struck out 5 or more. The one caveat is that he's only gone 4, 5.1, 5 and 6 IP in those starts mostly I assume because they are protecting him from re-injuring his arm. Over the course of the season, which included some rough starts at the beginning (which I attribute to the rehab process), he has 40 Ks, 18 BB, and 3.89 ERA in 10 G and 34 2/3 IP.

For those who don't know, Nick Schmidt was the 1st pick made by the Padres in the 2007 draft and the 23rd overall selection. Shortly after signing with the Padres (he only appeared in 3 games for Fort Wayne) he had an elbow injury that needed Tommy John surgery. He missed all of the 2008 season and finally got back to pitching at the start of the 2009 season for the Fort Wayne Tin Caps the Padres' Low A affiliate.

As I said earlier, he is 23 years old and will turn 24 in October. This is, as prospect gurus say, a little old for his league, especially for a 1st round pick. Low A is typically filled with players drafted out of high school and in their 3rd year of professional baseball (and thus ~20 years old), international signees in their 4th-5th year of professional baseball (19-21 years old) and players drafted out of college the year before (22-23 years old). Why does it matter? Because, unless you skip some levels then you will have to go through High-A, AA, and AAA before reaching the majors and if you are already 23 then that means you aren't making your big league debut until you're 27 years old, which is a pretty old rookie. Fellow 2007 Padres draftee of college Cory Luebke is already in High A Lake Elsinore (and dominating, which is awesome) and 3 fellow 1st round picks from 2007 who also went to college are in AA (Aaron Poreda, Daniel Moskos and Joe Savery), 1 is in AAA (James Simmons), and 2 (Ross Detwiler and David Price) are in the majors. There's even 1 pitcher drafted in the first round in 2007 out of High School in the majors (Rick Porcello). Suffice it to say, Schmidt will need to skip some levels to make an impact on the Padres in the near future. The last 4 starts are starting to show that he is going to earn those promotions. Some guys skate by doing just enough to get promoted, but shutting out your opponents in 4 straight games is a good way to make the organization want to promote you quickly.

Kudos to Nick Schmidt for battling back. In this day and age, coming back to full strength after Tommy John seems like a near certainty, but its not. I think Cesar Carillo's (Padres' 2006 #1 pick) struggles in San Antonio can show you that some comebacks are tougher than others. I hope he keeps pitching well and gets promoted quickly. The Padres' #1 picks have been the butt of jokes for a few years, but if Nick can be successful going forward he and the Padres FO will have the last laugh.

This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.

4 recs  |  Comment 11 comments

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Comments

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Nice

Schmidt as a prospect gets overlooked because of his TJ surgery, but with a few more goods starts like this people will start remembering him and thinking about him as a prospect again. Schmidt pitching well bolsters our farm system’s depth tremendously and hopefully he keeps it up.

by sdpads24 on Jun 10, 2009 8:04 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Wonko.

Nice work.

"When the going gets tough... TheGrandHatching pops in later." -- WG

by TheGrandHatching on Jun 11, 2009 7:13 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Good Job

When do you project him to the majors?

Big Numbers

by homerun013 on Jun 11, 2009 9:50 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Great post

I’ve been trying to find some analysis on our prospects for some time now and this is perfect. Just a good update.

"Dwight Howard couldn't score 40 points in a game if he was going against Yi Jianlian's chair." Bill Simmons chat 5/20

"I don't feel this team can beat us four times," Mo Williams 5/21

by L Magico on Jun 11, 2009 10:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Wonk

All this optimism from you…I’m wondering if I somehow slipped into a parallel universe.

by maestro876 on Jun 11, 2009 7:05 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

This is evil Wonko

You can tell because he has the mustache.

Isn't it enough to know that I ruined a pony making a gift for you? ◔ヮ◔
Uncommon Sportsman :: Absurdity in play

by Axion on Jun 13, 2009 2:07 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's still probably a good two years from being a Padre

and he really isn’t more then a #3 guy at best

So it’ll be nice to have him up here but I don’t know if he’d make a big impact here regardless

by TheAxManCometh on Jun 14, 2009 9:37 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

We don’t have a #3 so that sounds good to me.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jun 14, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

From Baseball Prospectus
Don’t write him off

Nick Schmidt, LHP, Padres (Low-A Fort Wayne)
Wednesday’s stats: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K
The Padres’ first-round pick in 2007, Nick Schmidt continued the long run of bad luck among top San Diego picks when he missed all of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery. This year didn’t really start any better, as he had a 5.94 ERA in four starts before going on the disabled list with more soreness in his surgically repaired elbow. Since returning however, he’s showing the form that get him selected that high in the first place, mixing four solid pitches, throwing strikes and keeping hitters off balance. With zero earned runs allowed in his last four starts over 20.1 innings, he’s suddenly worth keeping an eye on.

Memo to baseball managers: You manufacture runs by NOT making outs, not by making them on purpose.

by Wonko on Jun 14, 2009 4:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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