I'll just start by saying last night turned out fantastic for Padre fans---we keep Jake Peavy a little longer, we lose Jody Gerut (sorry to see you go, Jody!) but Tony Gwynn Jr. makes a key contribution with the game on the line (and a standing ovation at Petco).  And Hairston with a walk-off hit---how does he do that?--to keep a win streak going.

I was debating the merits of a Peavy trade with a friend of mine (he's a Mets fan, so you'll see why his examples are Mets-heavy).  I don't want to see Peavy go, at all, but I guess I'm resigned to it at this point---Becky and John need the money to fight over in court, I guess. 

Anyway, we started digging up a history of trades for pitcher's of roughly Peavy's caliber--meaning Cy Young award winners, pitchers otherwise thought to be at the top of the heap.  I know history is no predictor of what might happen for the Padres should Peavy get dealt.....but I'm really, really not encouraged by what kind of return teams have often gotten.  Talk up prospects all you want, it's a risky business.

There are a couple good deals in here for the team dealing the pitcher.....but there are more often a whole bunch of names, all of whom I'm sure scouts rated very highly at the time, of people you've never heard from again. 

Check it out and see what you think:

 

Randy Johnson - July 31, 1998: Traded by the Seattle Mariners to the Houston Astros for Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen. The Houston Astros sent John Halama (October 1, 1998) to the Seattle Mariners to complete the trade.

Tom Seaver - June 15, 1977: Traded by the New York Mets to the Cincinnati Reds for Doug Flynn, Steve Henderson, Dan Norman and Pat Zachry

Bret Saberhagen - December 11, 1991: Traded by the Kansas City Royals with Bill Pecota to the New York Mets for Gregg Jefferies, Kevin McReynolds and Keith Miller.

July 31, 1995: Traded by the New York Mets with a player to be named later to the Colorado Rockies for a player to be named later, Arnold Gooch (minors) and Juan Acevedo. TheNew York Mets sent David Swanson (minors) (August 4, 1995) to the Colorado Rockies to complete the trade.

Roger Clemens - February 18, 1999: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees for Homer Bush, Graeme Lloyd and David Wells.

Bartolo Colon - June 27, 2002: Traded by the Cleveland Indians with Tim Drew to the Montreal Expos for Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, Grady Sizemore and Lee Stevens.

January 15, 2003: Traded by the Montreal Expos with Jorge Nunez (minors) to the Chicago White Sox for Rocky Biddle, Orlando Hernandez, Jeff Liefer and cash.

 

Jack Mcdowell - December 14, 1994: Traded by the Chicago White Sox to the New York Yankees for Keith Heberling (minors). The New York Yankees sent Lyle Mouton (April 22, 1995) to theChicago White Sox to complete the trade.

 

Frank Viola - July 31, 1989: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the New York Mets for Rick Aguilera, Tim Drummond, Kevin Tapani and David West. The New York Mets sent Jack Savage (October 16, 1989) to the Minnesota Twins to complete the trade.

 

David Cone - March 27, 1987: Traded by the Kansas City Royals with Chris Jelic to the New York Mets for Rick Anderson, Mauro Gozzo and Ed Hearn.

August 27, 1992: Traded by the New York Mets to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jeff Kent. The Toronto Blue Jays sent Ryan Thompson (September 1, 1992) to the New York Mets to complete the trade.

April 6, 1995: Traded by the Kansas City Royals to the Toronto Blue Jays for David Sinnes (minors), Tony Medrano (minors) and Chris Stynes.

July 28, 1995: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays to the New York Yankees for Jason Jarvis (minors), Mike Gordon (minors) and Marty Janzen.

Johan Santana:  February 2, 2008: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the New York Mets for Deolis Guerra (minors), Kevin Mulvey (minors), Carlos Gomez and Philip Humber.

 

With the Santana trade, it's definitely still too early to tell how that turned out for the Twins.  But overall, I'm not particularly pleased with most of the return for a top of the rotation guy.  There's exactly ONE deal, here, the Colon deal that gets you Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips, that is the dream return.  I know this is what we're hoping for if Peavy (sadly) has to go.....but it's pretty rare.