Gwynn Jr., More Than Just A Familiar Name
Hey Sam from Amazin' Avenue here. I live in Nashville and blog about the Sounds (the Brewer's AAA affiliate) sporadically, so I thought I'd throw in my two cents about TGJ. I wrote this about him before the season:
Gwynn continued his trend toward total slap hitter for the Sounds last year, hitting a career high 62.1% of batted balls on the ground. The result was a modest .275/.328/.331. He’ll need to raise that average this year, if he has any aspirations of a career with the Brewers. Defensively, he was a solid 4 runs above average in center. Unless he enjoys a real breakout in 2009, look for fan-favorite Gwynn to spend the majority of his season with the Sounds.
Well Tony obviously reads my blog, and took it to heart, because he does look much better. After hitting just 14.1% Line Drives in AAA the year before and 11.4% in 2007, Gwynn raised that number to an excellent 20.1%. In 2008, he posted a 56.6% GB, which is good if you're Carlos Gomez or the Luis Castillo of old, but Tony's not that kind of burner. He's fast, and a good basestealer, but he needs to hit more line drives to stay successful, and he is.
Luckily, the improvement seems to stem from a genuine change in approach, not just a sample size fluke. He's swinging less (37.7% of pitches swung at vs 43.4% the year before) and he's missing less: 88.7% contact, which is up about 3% from his career norm. The result has been more walks and better contact.
If he sustains these improvements, he could be a .360-.370 OBP leadoff man, with good speed and centerfield defense. Last year, this move would have been just to get Tony, but this year it's a trade that makes sense, and makes the Padres younger and, maybe, better.
This FanPost was written by a member of the Gaslamp Ball community and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Gaslamp Ball managers or SB Nation.
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19 comments
Comments
Thanks; good stuff.
Note to “simmons”: this is how you do that. Nevermind, you’ll never read this.
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by TheThirdGonzalez on May 21, 2009 2:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Muchas Gracias Amigo
Appreciate the insider info.
"Get on board early," Black said, alluding to, what he feels, is a crop of up-and-coming players.
"I would tell those fans that we're going to play good baseball. We're going to play hard. We're going to have exciting young players..." -Bud Black
by The Kipper on May 21, 2009 2:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the info
Good to know!
This is a terrible thing for the Padres. - Jerry Coleman
by Padres_Hobo on May 21, 2009 2:59 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great work
Thanks for the post!
"I bleed powder blue." - Antonio Gates
by matto619 on May 21, 2009 3:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
awesome, thanks
this is like a Chargers blog now, people getting all analytical and fact-based…
by 'Eaters on May 21, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This does make me feel better.
But I’m gonna miss Gerut.
"If I wasn't Bob Dylan, I'd probably think that Bob Dylan has a lot of answers myself." - Bob Dylan
by JollyWaffle on May 21, 2009 4:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Awesome!!
I feel all warm and tingly inside now!
by SDPads_1 on May 21, 2009 5:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I really, really hope you're right.
Because his career .275 AAA batting average and career .240 MLB batting average tell me this is a dumb move.
by maestro876 on May 21, 2009 6:43 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
i've only seen one Gwynn at bat
… it was a triple
by 'Eaters on May 21, 2009 7:00 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Gerut!
"What in the name of Randy Jones is going on over there..."
by ABY on May 21, 2009 7:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
cynical trade
Let’s see. Gerut played a decent defense, and his road OPS last year was 945, best of any CF. We trade him for a someone with a career MLB OPS of 620? Why? Gee, we are trading our current franchise player, or trying, so let us give the fans a familiar name to distract them.
I mean that is purely cynical. I hope I am wrong, but that is my interpretation. If he was a starting CF, how come Milwaukee did not notice that?
by jayman66 on May 22, 2009 7:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
if gerut is our franchise player
we’ve got bigger problems than cynical trades.
by Stephen (shaynes41) on May 22, 2009 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cherrypicking
If he was a starting CF, how come Milwaukee did not notice that?
Maybe they did…I mean they finally traded him to the Pads after YEARS of them asking and got, what you rightly identified, as a good player. Gerut is nice, but he’s 31 years old and your team needs to get younger.
Also, why did you cite Gwynn’s career OPS versus Geruts road OPS from one year? Gerut has .774 career OPS, nothing to write home about. I’ll take the younger, higher-upside player everyday.
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on May 22, 2009 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gerut as a "franchise player" . Who is Jody Gerut anyway ?
I think I have heard it all now from those Padres partisan that have critiqued the Gerut-Gwynn swap. One has noted the supposed “enormous talent gap” between the two players and one on this blog has labeled of a 31 year old journeyman outfielder as a “franchise player” . Just who is this Jody Gerut anyway ?
by texpadre on May 22, 2009 5:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
bad misread - thanks for correction Gerut trade as a distraction
for trade of franchise player. Now I understand and perhaps agree w/your analysis.
by texpadre on May 22, 2009 5:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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