Optimizing the Padres' Batting Order

I didn't see if this had been done on this blog, but in any case, I'm doing an occasional series at Driveline Mechanics using the principles from The Book optimizing the batting orders of some teams whose offenses at least project to be... less than great. This iteration discusses the Padres. I think some might find it interesting. Or irritating. Or something.

almost 3 years ago Matt Klaassen 7 comments 2 recs |

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Nice

Well written article. The Book is an awesome …book. Kind of a hard read if you don’t like numbers, but has a lot of great concepts.

I’ve been a fan of Giles batting leadoff for awhile, but I am not sure about the pitcher batting eighth theory. There isn’t a lot of data to back it up.

by osbug on Apr 23, 2009 9:24 AM PDT reply actions

Very interesting

I would actually be supportive of moving Giles up to the leadoff spot if he were to get his OBP back up where you would expect it to be. There are many people here who would have a heart attack at the idea of Kouz rating the 4 spot, but I’m not at all surprised. Generally, I wouldn’t mind this lineup — with the caveat that Jake takes the number 9 spot when he comes up in the rotation. He’s a better hitter than a lot of every day players (no I’m not going to go get his numbers, I’m lazy today).

Viva la hysteria!

by Demoira on Apr 23, 2009 11:29 AM PDT reply actions

Might want to reread The Book and take a look at the numbers again

Batting Gonzalez 5th makes absolutely no sense. There is no way the guy with the highest SLG, the second high highest OBP against RHP, and the third highest OBP against LHP is the fourth best batter in the lineup.

Best Season Ever.

by Wes on Apr 23, 2009 2:07 PM PDT reply actions

I agree

I actually discuss this in my post. To summarize I agree he is the best hitter. If I had my druthers, I’d have Giles #1, Gerut #2, and Gonzalez #4. But I actually asked the authors of the Book about this very issue — and the notion MGL confirmed with me (and Tango has mentioned this in other posts as well) is that splitting up lefties to avoid having a LOOGY leveraged against the team in the later parts of the game. It’s more important to get the best hitters at least the first first 5 spots — to keep the lefties split up and have Gonzalez hit #4 versus RHP, either Giles or Gonzalez or Giles would hit no higher than #6. I’m not sure why they didn’t have the platooning/lineup discussion interact more in the actual book.

As for actual splits, I just apply average splits to them. All hitters tend to regress to league average spltis for their handedness. That I got from The Book as well.

So that’s my reasoning, make sense? The “best hitter not getting into the 4th slot” problem occurs with other teams I’ve examined both in past and upcoming posts — the best 2-3 hitters by far are usually lefties, so splitting them up prevents them being in the optimal spots.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 23, 2009 2:23 PM PDT up reply actions

and thanks for taking the time to read the post, too!

I’m glad someone did. I really enjoy discussing this stuff.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 23, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions

Hmm, maybe I need to reread that part of The Book

I don’t recall the part about compensation for relievers. According to the league average splits you listed, though, the differences vs RHP and LHP don’t seem very significant so why would accounting for bringing in a LOOGY even matter?

Best Season Ever.

by Wes on Apr 23, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions

that's what I mean

they do a platoon study, and they do a lineup study, but they don’t talk about alternating lefty/right matchips in combination with the lineups. But they do talk about it on the Book Blog, discussing lineups. They always alternate LHH and RHH.

Here is something MGL said about it recently.

Like I said, estimating guys platoon splits for each guy team takes a lot of time, so I just apply average splits from the last four years. In a different post, I talk about estimating platoon skills according to The Book, but like MGL, I am going with the assumption that alternating lefties is as a general rule a good idea. For specific cases, one could maybe have a lefty hitter who has an unusually good split so that the relative disadvantage was significantly mitigated, but those would be some pretty complex calculations not only for his platoon splits (and he’d have to have a pretty long track recorfd in the majors for one to be sure enough) but for the leverage aspect.

Anyway, those are the assumptions I was going by. I agree that Gonzalez is the best hitter, and that, generally, you want the best hitter hitting 4th, 2nd, or 1st.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 23, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions